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Postby djacks » Thu Dec 30, 2004 5:50 pm

HOOTIE wrote:Pedro had the 2nd highest k/9 last year in al at 9.41. Zambrano was next closest of the others at 8.07.
.


Zambrano has the worst K's/9 of this group...

Here are the actual #'s...not sure where Hootie got his...

Prior - 10.54
Pedro - 9.41
Wood - 9.24
Zambrano - 8.07

Pedro in the NL will help his strikeout numbers a bit...but for those of you who don't think his decreased velocity hurts him...what do you think makes a changeup so effective?!?...the changeup doesn't work as well when there's less speed difference between it and your fastball.

I'm not hating Pedro, I just think he's on a fast decline at this point in his career. All the others have immense upside potential.
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Postby HOOTIE » Fri Dec 31, 2004 5:53 am

djacks wrote:Pedro in the NL will help his strikeout numbers a bit...but for those of you who don't think his decreased velocity hurts him...what do you think makes a changeup so effective?!?...the changeup doesn't work as well when there's less speed difference between it and your fastball.


DJACKS thanks for catching the typo (next).

Think of the best changeup pitchers in the game. Maddux, Glavine, Moyer. Maddux in his prime topped out at only 88 mph. Looking at last year, let's look at those 3 highest avg fastball, and the % of changeups thrown.

avg fastballs

Moyer 81.6 mph
Maddux 84.9 mph
Glavine 85.6 mph

% of changeups thrown

Moyer 31% 1st in al
Glavine 37.4% 1st in nl
Maddux 24.9% 4th in nl

These 3 have made careers with changeups, with lower fastballs then Pedro now has. Speed is only a third of it, location and movement just as important.
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Postby HOOTIE » Fri Dec 31, 2004 7:04 am

ironman wrote:
HOOTIE wrote:What's this 6 inning stuff? Pedro had the most starts of the bunch, and the most innings. Let's look at innings per start.

Zambrano 6.76
Pedro 6.57
Wood 6.37
Prior 5.65


I don't think its fair to compare IP per start when Prior and Wood both missed extended periods of time last season, and only pitched in 2/3 as many games as they normally would have. If you look back at their stats from 2003 Prior had 7.04 IP/start and Wood had 6.59. I think those numbers are more accurate of what those two will do if healthy all year.


Fair enough. Pedro in 03 was at 6.43, Zambrano 6.68, so he's right with Wood, and a tad under Zambrano. But it's not good Prior was at 7.04. He lead pitchers last year in pitches per start, not good at age 23. Pedro gets a rap for missing starts, being hurt, not pitching enough innings, and not going deep enough. But in 11 seasons as a sp, he's pitched at least 185 innings in 9 of them. By comparision, Wood in 6 years has hit 185 innings just twice, and Prior in 3 seasons has only been over 120 innings once.
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