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Postby djacks » Wed Dec 29, 2004 2:35 pm

[quote="DKThis is quite possibly the most incorrect thing I've ever seen.

Pedro doesn't strike much out anymore? How do you explain him having the second-best K/9 in the AL last year?
[/quote]

I stand corrected on the stikeouts comment... :-/

But the fact remains his strikeouts are declining from previous years and he's lost 4-5 mph off his fastball. Doesn't that seem like a warning sign that something is wrong? His shoulder problems are well documented. His K's per 9 are only effective from a fantasy standpoint if he pitches a lot of innings, something that I highly doubt will happen this year. Yes he pitched over 200 last year, but I just don't see it happening this year. Just My Opinion!
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Postby DK » Wed Dec 29, 2004 3:27 pm

djacks wrote:
DK wrote: quite possibly the most incorrect thing I've ever seen.

Pedro doesn't strike much out anymore? How do you explain him having the second-best K/9 in the AL last year?


I stand corrected on the stikeouts comment... :-/



It's all right. I've been tiffed because everyone has been doubting Pedro and I seem to be the only one on his side.

His strikeouts, going from a hitters park in the AL in one of the toughest divisions in the majors to a pitcher's park in the NL in a moderate to weak division should shoot those numbers right back where they should be.

djacks wrote:But the fact remains his strikeouts are declining from previous years and he's lost 4-5 mph off his fastball. Doesn't that seem like a warning sign that something is wrong?


Pitchers can pitch well without a Grade A fastball. Pedro's never been fully reliant on his fastball, he's been more of a change-speeds guy. Tons of curves and changes, the fastball is more of a complement pitcher.

djacks wrote:His shoulder problems are well documented.


So is the Loch Ness Monster.


djacks wrote:His K's per 9 are only effective from a fantasy standpoint if he pitches a lot of innings, something that I highly doubt will happen this year. Yes he pitched over 200 last year, but I just don't see it happening this year. Just My Opinion!


There's no real way to tell how many innings he's going to pitch, but I would not be surprised if it was over or under 200. If you play in a roto league, the K/9 is immensely important.
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Postby funatic » Wed Dec 29, 2004 4:35 pm

DK wrote:
djacks wrote:His shoulder problems are well documented.


So is the Loch Ness Monster.


Good one. Funny! :-D
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Postby JDD » Wed Dec 29, 2004 5:09 pm

Hmmmm

Good Question.

Wood is my answer.
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Postby Registered_Guest » Thu Dec 30, 2004 4:47 am

Prior
Pedro
Zambrano
Wood
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Postby HOOTIE » Thu Dec 30, 2004 7:47 am

DK nice post ;-D

I like Pedro going to Shea versus Fenway, and facing no dh.
Prior 2nd, Zambrano 3rd, Wood 4th.
I'm not trying to change anyone's opinions, but i see quite a few misconceptions being stated.

Pedro had the 2nd highest k/9 last year in al at 9.41. Zambrano was next closest of the others at 8.07.

What's this 6 inning stuff? Pedro had the most starts of the bunch, and the most innings. Let's look at innings per start.

Zambrano 6.76
Pedro 6.57
Wood 6.37
Prior 5.65

As far as Pedro's 3.90 era, it still ranked 9th in the higher scoring al. Using ERC, which is a estimate of what a era should have been based on their pitching performance, it was 3.44.

As far as run support, true NY will score less. But sometimes you never know. Ishii with LA, lead the nl in run support.

One thing not good for Zambrano down the line is Baker. Zambrano had the 3rd highest pitches per start at 111.8. That's just plain crazy on a young arm. I truly believe it's what's wrong with Zito. Just some things to ponder.

Sure Pedro's fastball is down, but he's using other pitches. His 15.8% of chageups was 9th highest in al, his 14.4% curveballs was 8th highest.
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Postby trevisc » Thu Dec 30, 2004 8:32 am

That's what I like about you Hootie, you are the numbers man. Thanks for busting out the stats on all these Pedro bashers.

I for one think this is a great year to buy him at a lower price while most people are down on him. He is still a first round pitcher in my book.
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Postby ironman » Thu Dec 30, 2004 11:50 am

HOOTIE wrote:DK nice post ;-D

I like Pedro going to Shea versus Fenway, and facing no dh.
Prior 2nd, Zambrano 3rd, Wood 4th.
I'm not trying to change anyone's opinions, but i see quite a few misconceptions being stated.

Pedro had the 2nd highest k/9 last year in al at 9.41. Zambrano was next closest of the others at 8.07.

What's this 6 inning stuff? Pedro had the most starts of the bunch, and the most innings. Let's look at innings per start.

Zambrano 6.76
Pedro 6.57
Wood 6.37
Prior 5.65

As far as Pedro's 3.90 era, it still ranked 9th in the higher scoring al. Using ERC, which is a estimate of what a era should have been based on their pitching performance, it was 3.44.

As far as run support, true NY will score less. But sometimes you never know. Ishii with LA, lead the nl in run support.

One thing not good for Zambrano down the line is Baker. Zambrano had the 3rd highest pitches per start at 111.8. That's just plain crazy on a young arm. I truly believe it's what's wrong with Zito. Just some things to ponder.

Sure Pedro's fastball is down, but he's using other pitches. His 15.8% of chageups was 9th highest in al, his 14.4% curveballs was 8th highest.


I don't think its fair to compare IP per start when Prior and Wood both missed extended periods of time last season, and only pitched in 2/3 as many games as they normally would have. If you look back at their stats from 2003 Prior had 7.04 IP/start and Wood had 6.59. I think those numbers are more accurate of what those two will do if healthy all year.
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Postby perlick29 » Thu Dec 30, 2004 2:43 pm

Hmm, if all these people think Prior tops the list then maybe it would probably take a lot to get him off my team assuming I had him.

I guess he's untradable (if I had him, eh Trev and eftda? ;-) )
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Postby DK » Thu Dec 30, 2004 2:47 pm

HOOTIE wrote:DK nice post ;-D

I like Pedro going to Shea versus Fenway, and facing no dh.
Prior 2nd, Zambrano 3rd, Wood 4th.
I'm not trying to change anyone's opinions, but i see quite a few misconceptions being stated.

Pedro had the 2nd highest k/9 last year in al at 9.41. Zambrano was next closest of the others at 8.07.

What's this 6 inning stuff? Pedro had the most starts of the bunch, and the most innings. Let's look at innings per start.

Zambrano 6.76
Pedro 6.57
Wood 6.37
Prior 5.65

As far as Pedro's 3.90 era, it still ranked 9th in the higher scoring al. Using ERC, which is a estimate of what a era should have been based on their pitching performance, it was 3.44.

As far as run support, true NY will score less. But sometimes you never know. Ishii with LA, lead the nl in run support.

One thing not good for Zambrano down the line is Baker. Zambrano had the 3rd highest pitches per start at 111.8. That's just plain crazy on a young arm. I truly believe it's what's wrong with Zito. Just some things to ponder.

Sure Pedro's fastball is down, but he's using other pitches. His 15.8% of chageups was 9th highest in al, his 14.4% curveballs was 8th highest.


Bill James Handbook? :D

Great post. Filled in all the blanks I left. ;D
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