I wouldn't classify Crawford as a specialist. IMO, you can pencil him in for 100 runs, 15 HR, 70 RBI (he'll probably hit second behind Gathright), 50+ SB, and .300 AVG.
15 HR isn't going to win you any titles, but netiher is the 5-10 SB that Sheff will contribute. It's not much different than Johnny Damon will give you and more than Ichiro. Also the 70 RBIs don't hurt, ask everyone who picked up on Derek Jeter when all he does is get 70 RBIs.
Crawford doesn't hurt you in any partiicular category and helps you big time in 3 categories. To put things in perspective, if I told you you could draft a player who would put up 104 runs, 50 HR, 110 RBI, 5 SB, and .296 AVG, would that be a 1st round caliber player? You'd be hard-pressed to find someone who would say no. But that's almost exactly what Crawfords numbers would look like if his value was translated to a power hitter. In roto the approximate value of runs and RBI or statistically identical and the value of HR and SB is identical. According to Rototimes, a HR and SB is worth about .11 points and runs and RBIs are worth .03 points.
Crawford had 104 runs, 11 HR, 55 RBI, 59 SB, and .296 AVG last year or 104/11/55/59/.296. Since HR and SB are equivalent, we can transpose those to 104/59/55/11/.296. Most power hitters don't steal too much, so lowering his 11 SB to 5 SB is lessening by 6, which has a value of .66, which equates to 22 RBI, making the number 104/59/77/5/.296. And to even things out, let's lower HR by 9, to 50, giving us a value of .99, or 33 RBI, making his final total 104/50/110/5/.296. Compare that to Manny Ramirez who most people agree goes in the first 10 picks. Manny had 108 runs, 43 HR, 130 RBI, 2 SB, .308 AVG.
And to compound things, most people expect Crawford to get better.
So, in not so short, Crawford is not a specialist, and most definitely worthy of a first round pick.
I left things at 104/50/110/5/.296 for the "power hitting" Crawford and using 108/43/130/2/.308 for Manny.
I would just guess that 5 SB and a .296 AVG equals approximately, give or take .001 or .002 AVG points, 2 SB and .308 AVG.
So comparing 104/50/110 and 108/43/130 . . . Let's make the HR equal, lowering Crawford by 7, or .77 points. Remember each RBI and run is worth .03. Let's start by making the runs even, giving 4 to crawford and lowering the .77 by .12 to .65. Now the runs and HR are even with Crawford having 110 RBI and .65 "points" and Manny having 130 RBI. .03 goes into .65 approximately 22 times. Adding 22 RBI to Crawford gives him 132 RBIs to Manny's 130 RBI, and all other things being equal.
I'm a little tired, a lot bored, and I'm sure some of this was nonsensical. But I hope I made my point.
joshheines wrote:Also the 70 RBIs don't hurt, ask everyone who picked up on Derek Jeter when all he does is get 70 RBIs.
You forget that Derek Jeter is a Shortstop. I'll be glad to get 70 RBI's from my shortstop. I expect 100 RBI's from all my OF's however, since I need them and that's the best place to get them. 70 RBI is possible from Crawford but IMO it is on the optimistic side.
Don't get me wrong, I'd gladly have Carl Crawford on my team, much much moreso than an Ichiro or Juan Pierre, but I'd take a Manny Ramirez, Gary Sheffield, Todd Helton before I thought about taking Crawford. In a Keeper however, Crawford is much more valuable than in single year leagues.
If you expect 100 RBIs from all your OF you expect too much, even if you only have 3. 14 OF had over 100 RBI last year. Meanwhile, 9 OF had over 30 SB and 16 had over 20. By comparison, only 12 MLB players had over 30 SB and 27 had over 20. Therefore, OF represent 75% of the big 30 + SB threats (Ryan Freel, Chone Figgins, and Jimmy Rollins are the other 3 30+ guys) and 60% of the 20+ SB guys.
For further comparison, let's go back to HR. One player hit 150 RBI, not an OF. Four guys hit 130+ RBI, Manny was the only OF. Nine guys had 120+, 3 were OF (Manny, Sheff, and Vlad). Sixteen players had 110+, 6 were OF (add Miggy, Edmonds, and Burnitz) 33 players had over 100+ RBIs, only 14 were OF.
Seems to me, like you can get power elsewhere, but you need to go to the OF to get your speed. The bottom line is that drafting Crawford gives you absolute freedom for the rest of your draft to punt SBs. By default the rest of the guys you pick up will get you enough SB with Craw to compete in SB, but you're not left scrounging the barrel for a starter who can get some SBs