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Projections...

Postby BGbootha » Mon Dec 27, 2004 5:12 pm

I have been taggin along on these boards (as well as the football cafe) for a few years now, I would consider myself extremely fantasy saavy. however, you guys over here on the baseball side constantly throw out individual projections along with your cheat sheets.

I am trying tomake a pretty in depth cheat sheet this year and was going to include my own projections. But don't really know where to start, i can look at what someone has done over the past few years and get an idea, but mostly they are just coming out of my a$$. Is this the same whay you all do it, or do you guys use some sort of formula, another type of cheat sheet or what.

thanks for any help, just trying to make that next step up the fantasy geek ladder i guess.
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Postby Amazinz » Mon Dec 27, 2004 5:17 pm

A good place to start is a three-year average weighted 50/33/17.
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Postby Bloody Nipples » Mon Dec 27, 2004 5:20 pm

Amazinz wrote:A good place to start is a three-year average weighted 50/33/17.


I've decided that thats what I'll be doing this year. Then I'll fudge some numbers for certain players so they come out right.
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Postby BGbootha » Mon Dec 27, 2004 5:26 pm

Thats pretty close to what I have been looking at, and it really seems to help out, what do you do with players who haven't been around that long, or have some other aspects to really change those stats, for intstace Dave Roberts going to SD is really going to change his projections using this weighting system?

again thanks for the help.
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Postby Bloody Nipples » Mon Dec 27, 2004 5:28 pm

BGbootha wrote:Thats pretty close to what I have been looking at, and it really seems to help out, what do you do with players who haven't been around that long, or have some other aspects to really change those stats, for intstace Dave Roberts going to SD is really going to change his projections using this weighting system?

again thanks for the help.


Those are the guys I expect to be doing on my own without a formula, or fudging the numbers from the formula.
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Postby SaintsOfTheDiamond » Mon Dec 27, 2004 5:31 pm

This is my first attempt at rankings/cheat sheets so take it for what it's worth. :-D For my projections so far all I've done is look at the players career numbers and then make my own projections based on that with some minor adjustments for age, park, manager, etc. It's a pretty long and involved process, but I feel that it gives me a better starting point than the 50/33/17 split, but that's just me. Then I'll take those projections and rank position players by position, then all position players, and then do the same for pitchers -- SP and RP seperately. I'm still in the middle of this part right now, but when I'm done with the pitchers I'll hopefully try to combine all of them into one big cheat sheet if I haven't burned out by then. :*)
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Postby J35J » Mon Dec 27, 2004 6:56 pm

SaintsOfTheDiamond wrote:This is my first attempt at rankings/cheat sheets so take it for what it's worth. :-D For my projections so far all I've done is look at the players career numbers and then make my own projections based on that with some minor adjustments for age, park, manager, etc. It's a pretty long and involved process, but I feel that it gives me a better starting point than the 50/33/17 split, but that's just me. Then I'll take those projections and rank position players by position, then all position players, and then do the same for pitchers -- SP and RP seperately. I'm still in the middle of this part right now, but when I'm done with the pitchers I'll hopefully try to combine all of them into one big cheat sheet if I haven't burned out by then. :*)


This is how I do it. Just look at career numbers and make my own projections looking at the above instances and then put them in my own formula to get a rough ranking then tweak the formulas rankings based on track record or whatever. I've been doing it for the last 3 or so years and it has worked just fine for me. If you know baseball just use your head, don't try to overcomplicate it. If you are new at it just go off of a variety of sources and avg them out.

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Postby SaintsOfTheDiamond » Mon Dec 27, 2004 7:30 pm

J35J wrote:If you know baseball just use your head, don't try to overcomplicate it.


I agree. If you're just starting out like me the worst thing you can do is try to make yours as complicated as someone who's been doing it for years. Start out simple and then add more layers of complexity as you go. ;-D
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Postby BGbootha » Mon Dec 27, 2004 7:37 pm

yeah so far (just started this morning) I am just going through by position and looking at past years and then coming up with what I think my projections are. Not really using any formula, but simply a bit of my own common sense I guess.

I don't know what I will do from there, probably try to come up with some formular to rank them in some feasable order, but who knows, I could easily just end up listing them in my own order like I have in the past.
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Postby tlef316 » Mon Dec 27, 2004 8:12 pm

i tried doing individual projection spreadsheets last year, but i ended up not using them at all. I just sort of look at previous stats and factor in new variables(ballpark, team change, new additions, injuries, ect) to get an idea of how i think a player will perform. I find that if i try to project stats on guys that i label as "sleepers" or breakout candidates i end up 2nd guessing myself becuase my projections seem too far fetched.

I'm just gonna rank the positions and refer to these spreadsheets when drafting my teams. IMO, predicting whether pujols is gona hit 42 or 44 HR's isnt worth the trouble. A stud is a stud and a sleeper is a sleeper.
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