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Postby Dark Knight » Mon Dec 27, 2004 10:58 pm

mtarail wrote:I wouldn't take Abreu before the end of the 2nd. I'm a little skeptical about his ability to repeat his 2004 HR's and SB's.


Abreu has been a 5 catagory fantasy guy since 1999, what has this guy ever done to make you feel skeptical about him?
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Postby tlef316 » Mon Dec 27, 2004 11:04 pm

i think he falls back to his 2003 production, leaving people who draft him in the first a little disappointed. Still a solid # 1 OF, but not a deserving first rounder
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Postby mtarail » Mon Dec 27, 2004 11:12 pm

Dark Knight wrote:
mtarail wrote:I wouldn't take Abreu before the end of the 2nd. I'm a little skeptical about his ability to repeat his 2004 HR's and SB's.


Abreu has been a 5 catagory fantasy guy since 1999, what has this guy ever done to make you feel skeptical about him?


He got career highs in steals and almost a career high in jacks last year. I know he's a stud. Heck, he's mr. reliable. But I think he'll fall back down to something more like his '03 numbers.
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Postby Dark Knight » Mon Dec 27, 2004 11:17 pm

mtarail wrote:
Dark Knight wrote:
mtarail wrote:I wouldn't take Abreu before the end of the 2nd. I'm a little skeptical about his ability to repeat his 2004 HR's and SB's.


Abreu has been a 5 catagory fantasy guy since 1999, what has this guy ever done to make you feel skeptical about him?


He got career highs in steals and almost a career high in jacks last year. I know he's a stud. Heck, he's mr. reliable. But I think he'll fall back down to something more like his '03 numbers.


If you are saying that he is not a top 5 pick, then I agree with you. But, in a 12 team or larger league, picking him in the late 1st round is not a bad idea at all.
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Postby Tavish » Mon Dec 27, 2004 11:21 pm

Dark Knight wrote:
mtarail wrote:I wouldn't take Abreu before the end of the 2nd. I'm a little skeptical about his ability to repeat his 2004 HR's and SB's.


Abreu has been a 5 catagory fantasy guy since 1999, what has this guy ever done to make you feel skeptical about him?


He has been a good late 2nd- mid 3rd round pick since 1999. Nothing made him worth a 1st round pick until his production in 2004. If you expect those numbers repeated then he definitely should be considered late in the first. I wouldnt draft him expecting more than .300 25-25. If he is going in the 1st I would much rather get Patterson later in the draft.
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Postby mtarail » Mon Dec 27, 2004 11:29 pm

Tavish wrote:
Dark Knight wrote:
mtarail wrote:I wouldn't take Abreu before the end of the 2nd. I'm a little skeptical about his ability to repeat his 2004 HR's and SB's.


Abreu has been a 5 catagory fantasy guy since 1999, what has this guy ever done to make you feel skeptical about him?


He has been a good late 2nd- mid 3rd round pick since 1999. Nothing made him worth a 1st round pick until his production in 2004. If you expect those numbers repeated then he definitely should be considered late in the first. I wouldnt draft him expecting more than .300 25-25. If he is going in the 1st I would much rather get Patterson later in the draft.


You read my mind. The other option is loading up on power early and grabbing Crawford or Pierre later on....
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Postby trevisc » Tue Dec 28, 2004 12:00 am

I think he'll bat somewhere around .315 with 110 runs 95 rbi, 28 homers and 25 sbs.

He's on the decline and I think last year was the biggest year he's ever had or will have.

Even with that he's a near 30/30 hitter just about any year and worthy of a second round pick in my book
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Postby TheFatman » Tue Dec 28, 2004 2:17 am

there's no "mini" about these numbers:

Beltran since 2001:
443runs, 117 hr's, 410 rbi's, 149 sb's, .288avg

Abreu since 2001:
437runs, 101hr's, 446rbi's, 129 sb's, .299avg

I give the award to Abreu.
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Postby blankman » Tue Dec 28, 2004 2:39 am

TheFatman wrote:there's no "mini" about these numbers:

Beltran since 2001:
443runs, 117 hr's, 410 rbi's, 149 sb's, .288avg

Abreu since 2001:
437runs, 101hr's, 446rbi's, 129 sb's, .299avg

I give the award to Abreu.


To be fair, Beltran did miss 30 (?) games in 2003, but I believe he is being overhyped this year. I can't consider him the #1 like so many here do, when Bobby Abreu will go much later and IMO put up equal and in some respects better numbers than Beltran. If Beltran doesn't go to the Yankees or Astros (short left-field) then I'd consider taking Abreu over him. It may be just me but I think the hype around Beltran is way overblown, in some ways similar to Soriano last year (whom I did have as my #3 :-/ )

Still hope he's in a Yankee uniform next year and in CF for a long time ;-D
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Postby shortsavage » Tue Dec 28, 2004 6:29 am

Keep in mind that Abreu lost weight going into last season, and he got to play in a new, offensive park. I do not see his numbers declining in 2005.
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