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Please help me figure out Jason Werth's 2005 value.

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Please help me figure out Jason Werth's 2005 value.

Postby Bukoski77 » Fri Dec 24, 2004 12:23 pm

Well first and foremost I'd really like be able to help a friend in my league. since the league started over 5 years ago me and this owner who is asking my opnion of Jason Werth, have had a great rapport and have been Trade Partners, ala, not selling high and low to each other, makeing fair trades that help us both along the way, etc..........

Other than putting up fairly decent numbers in limited at bats last year, I dont know to much about him.

This year of our fairly advanced keeper league we have expanded the keeper rules even more. We started with 8 keepers(maximum 4 pitchers kept) for three years at the most a player may be a keeper on your roster. After that you have to either trade him bye the trade deadline of the last year he is eligible for your team or lose him to the draft.

After that basic 8 keepers rule, we implemented a minor league draft. 3 minor league picks per team, our draft is usually done around mid season. If a player you selected in your minor league draft doesnt exceed rookie qualifications, you may keep him into next year at no cost to your original 8 keepers. Ala, extra keepers. The only catch to that being if they start they year on a MLB roster, or at any other time are called up, you must remove them from your ML spots, and place them on your active roster.

As we only keep players for a maximum of 3 years, it has been kind of hard to augment the gap between prospects usually takeing a few years to develop, when after our ML draft picks exceed rookie qulifications, we are no longer eligible to keep them as a free keeper outside of our 8 keepers.

So going into this years's 2005 draft, we have implemented the Fist Year Player Keeper Excemption Rule. Under this format, when ourML draft picks exceed rookie qualifications we may keep 1-2 of these players as keepers with no cost to our original 8 keepers, or ML players still eligible that we carry over. The only catch to this is that your 1st First Year Player Keeper Excemption is a total freeby, if you decide to keep a 2nd player under those qualifications, then you lose you 2nd round pick in the next Minor League Player draft.


So after all that, help me decide Jayson Werths's Value. Basically will he be worth drafting in the late rounds of 5X5 roto leagues next year.

Anyone have his Minor League Numbers? I would like to check out his rise or decline in AVE., OBP, SLG, and K rate over his minor league seasoning as he has very limited MLB statistics to work with.

Thanks for any and all help guys!.
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Postby Tavish » Fri Dec 24, 2004 12:28 pm

Werth's Minor League numbers.
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Postby Mustangs989 » Fri Dec 24, 2004 12:29 pm

Here are his career stats, both minor leagues and major leagues. Truthfully unless in a pretty large league I don't think he'll have too much value. I'm not sure how much PT he'll have with Drew, Bradley and Green(is he gonna play OF?). If he does get consistant playing time he could be a pretty good supply of HR, but his AVG will bring you down.
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Postby ensanimal » Fri Dec 24, 2004 12:30 pm

here's something that would scare me. kind of old, not sure if anyone has any more recent info.

Latest News Oct. 28, 2004 - 3:15 pm et


It is the ulnar collateral ligament in Jayson Werth's elbow that is partially torn. He'll rehab for 4-6 weeks before a decision is made on surgery.
If the rehab goes poorly, Werth would need Tommy John surgery and could miss the entire season. GM Paul DePodesta said he is proceeding under the assumption the odds of Werth recovering without surgery "are better than 50-50."
Source: Orange County Register
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Postby Bukoski77 » Fri Dec 24, 2004 12:50 pm

Wow guys, that was quick. Thanks alot.

I will just advise him that 'If he is your only First Year Keeper Exemption Player, and you feel you can invest a reserve spot on him, than it isnt too big a risk with his power potential', then ' If you have a better First Year Player Keeper Exemption, than he probably isnt worth the risk of takeing up a 2nd reserve spot and costing you a ML draft pick'.

Of course if his injury situation isnt cleared up bye March 15th when we declare our keepers, then he just isnt worth the risk at all.

Great advice! Thanks for makeing this one easy on me guys ;-D .
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Postby Bukoski77 » Sat Dec 25, 2004 8:08 am

Again thnx guys. Always have to help a trade partner out even though I'm not really involved.

He is just one of those guys from an internet $$ league that I've know for so many years online and even though have never met face to face. kind of feel as if he should be one of my best men whenever I get married, lol.

As everyone that helped on this post I recognized their username and greatly respect their knowledge, please grade this cut and paste of what I told him by a fantasy advise critique. Dont count off for spelling and grammer :-D . I'm well aware I have the writeing skills of a 3rd grader.


[quote="Bukoski77-Told his Buddy"]
J. Werth. I certainly wouldnt keep him at the expense of a minor league draft pick. If you dont have a better eligible player for your first year player keeper exemption than him on your roster, you might want to consider finding a player with more upside to get as a throw in to a trade. Aside from 30-35 HR upside at the most if he peeks in a ew years, he doesnt seem to offer very much upside to me in any other categories. He batted mostly 2nd in the lineup for the Dodgers last year, and if not there was bumbed to the bottom of the lineup, mostly batting 7th.

He K'd 1.5 (1.3-1.7 actualy, I dont feel like doing the precise math) times for every BB he took throught 2465 AB in 8 minor league season. Which isnt very indicative of developing plate potential at all. Then in parts of 3 major league seasons he has accumilated 384 at bats and K'd a decimal point or two away from 4 times per BB (39BB and 118K's). That seems very indicative that he wont adjust to MLB pitching very well. Finally at double AA and above he has, except for last years .412AVE in only 54 Triple A At-Bats, only hit higher than a .270AVE twice. A .273AVE in 1999 (Bowie AA minor league team) and a .285AVE in 2001 (Tennessee AA minor league team).

I just dont see the tools there for him to develop into a much better hitter after 8 years in the minor leagues.

If you dont have any other player that qualifies or get one in a trade, there is a small light at the end of the tunnel. If the Dodgers do end up tradeing Green, and I'm assumeing J. Kent and J.D. Drew fill the 3-4 spots of the order after the Finley and Beltre departures, then I could see him being given a chance to hit at the number 3 or number 6 spots in the order.

He will contribute in HR, maybe push 25- 30 assumeing he is in the every day lineup all year, that would boost his RBI totals. Someone will draft him in the late rounds if you dont hold onto him on account of his power. But with him not takeing very many walks, strikeing out alot costing you points per every K in our points league, even at best getting a lineup order boost to help his RBI's, I only see him as a 4th OF'er, injury reserve, or someone that gets picked up off waivers as a fill in if he has a hot 2-4 HR week with his AVE up.[/quote]

Sound like a pretty good assesment of his upside? As my fantasy years go on and on, I'm trying to get a better grasp of understanding ML and MLB career stats so as to decide what they translate into playerX's potential.
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Postby crapshooter » Sat Dec 25, 2004 11:09 am

I own him at a salary of 10 because he was picked up during the season last year. He is streaky hitter who will hit a few home runs but his average will hurt you. I definitely will not keep him at 10 as one of my keepers and we can keep up to 15.
You don't have to like 'em to own 'em!!!!
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Postby Registered_Guest » Sat Dec 25, 2004 4:34 pm

His peak is Phil Nevin-like.

I think he'll be a 4th OF for the duration of his career personally. Him and Choi could be a nice platoon.
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Postby JDD » Thu Dec 30, 2004 3:18 am

Werth's Worth?

little

What's worse?

nothing

That is what I would invest in him right now, little to nothing.

Fantasy-wise of course.

Ask again once Green's contract is up after 2005.
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