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Where would you draft Prior in relation to other pitchers?

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Postby Cornbread Maxwell » Thu Dec 23, 2004 3:58 pm

chadxor wrote:am i the only one who isn't going to touch randy with a fifteen foot pole? i have a feeling he'll go down sooner or later in the season.


well, that and the arguments that he would be going from the NL to the AL, and specifically to Yankee stadium where the recent track record for new Yankme pitchers there is less than stellar.

Lots of potential negatives with RJ - Basically only if you want a sizeable gamble would you draft him as your top SP. The potential reward is real high though.
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Postby Pogotheostrich » Thu Dec 23, 2004 3:59 pm

chadxor wrote:am i the only one who isn't going to touch randy with a fifteen foot pole? i have a feeling he'll go down sooner or later in the season.
Yes. The guy is a monster. Every pitcher is an injury risk. He is 41 and has had knee trouble but also lead MLB is K's last year with a WHIP of .9. Not to mention he will probally end up on the Yankees.
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Postby renegade_accountant » Thu Dec 23, 2004 4:05 pm

Santana has been good for what - half a season? Prior was hurt for half the season, but came on strong at the end. I'd take Prior over anyone and if he's sitting there at the end of round 2, he's a STEAL.

RJ was a fantasy leper at the beginning of last year - no one wanted him b/c of injury and then he SUCKED to start out. He was awesome at the end and now people want to take him before Prior?

Yeah he has some left in the tank, but no way does he go before Prior.

Schill is a stud, but you know in advance that he won't pitch a complete season in '05.

Prior
Schmidt
Santana
RJ
Schill
Pedro

Remember - Santana sucked so bad early last year that he was DROPPED in a lot of leagues. HE SUCKED. BAD.

Watch for people to dog Kerry Wood in the draft. If he's sitting in round 5...STEAL.

Sheets has done it for one season and his team sucks.

Take him too early too so that I can laugh at you. :-)
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Postby LBJackal » Thu Dec 23, 2004 6:05 pm

Just to touch on a few guys who have been mentioned here... a lot of the time it's the park or luck that have to do with a pitcher's emegence. Peavy had a bit of both. He was great, but being in Petco helped him a lot. He won't even come close to repeating his ERA.

As for Pedro, it's hard to tell IMO. Is he hurt bad enough that it will hinder his pitching? His velocity was down last year, will that trend continue? Will he stay healthy all year or spend a month on the DL? The things we know are that a move to the NL helps, and Shea will cut down on his HR allowed. But injury concerns, velocity concerns, and other things make me worry about taking him as my #1 SP.

As for Sheets... he was no fluke. You don't pitch that well as a fluke. Say what you want about one year wonders, but nobody has come close to being as good as that and not been dominant throughout the rest of their entire career. And he's only 26.

And RJ s a tough one. Considering him and Santana will be taken as the 1 and 2 SP's probably, I'll be looking at Prior or Sheets as my #1 in my rotation. RJ has just too much going against him. He's old, and his knee is a ticking time bomb IMO. He can't get any better then he was last year, not at this age. He can only go downhill, and even if he moves to the Yankes, his W will go up, but his ERA, WHIP, and K's will suffer from the move to the AL. Too much risk, and not enough room for a reward. You'd think people would remember 2003 when it comes to the Big Unit.

Anyway that's my take on the top SP's.
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Postby Tavish » Thu Dec 23, 2004 6:18 pm

LBJackal wrote:Just to touch on a few guys who have been mentioned here... a lot of the time it's the park or luck that have to do with a pitcher's emegence. Peavy had a bit of both. He was great, but being in Petco helped him a lot. He won't even come close to repeating his ERA.


Qualcom was worse than Petco was for hitters. Pinning his emergence on moving to a new park isn't giving him nearly enough credit.
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Postby TeamCaptain#2 » Thu Dec 23, 2004 6:40 pm

Hudson
Prior
Mulder
Mussina (don't call me crazy)
Wood
Vazquez
Schilling
Johnson
Colon
Pettite

I am not going by last years stats.
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Postby TeamCaptain#2 » Thu Dec 23, 2004 6:42 pm

My opinion on Johan Santana is that he is a fluke. Once hitters figure out that changeup he is history.
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Postby LBJackal » Thu Dec 23, 2004 6:54 pm

Tavish wrote:
LBJackal wrote:Just to touch on a few guys who have been mentioned here... a lot of the time it's the park or luck that have to do with a pitcher's emegence. Peavy had a bit of both. He was great, but being in Petco helped him a lot. He won't even come close to repeating his ERA.


Qualcom was worse than Petco was for hitters. Pinning his emergence on moving to a new park isn't giving him nearly enough credit.


I said it had a bit to do with Petco. Defintely he's a great pitcher, but the park helped. It's the second best pitchers park in the majors next to Safeco. And I'm not doubting you, but do you have the park indices from when they played in Qualcomm/Jack Murphy? I can't imagine it was more of a pitcher's park than Petco.
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Postby Tavish » Thu Dec 23, 2004 7:10 pm

baseball-reference.com has the park factors.

<pre>
Year Park Factor
Bat/Pit
2004 92/93 PETCO
2003 91/92 Qualcomm
2002 92/93 Qualcomm
2001 91/92 Qualcomm</pre>
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Postby LBJackal » Thu Dec 23, 2004 10:04 pm

Wow, didn't know Qualcomm was that bad. It didn't have much of a reputation though, as far as I remember.
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