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Where would you draft Prior in relation to other pitchers?

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Postby wrveres » Thu Dec 23, 2004 12:35 pm

slomo007 wrote:
Cornbread Maxwell wrote:
wrveres wrote:Ok now don't get me wrong, I am a huge Jacob Peavy fan. But may I ask, what is the rational as to rating him higher than Mark Prior? Is it injury concerns? Cus I clearly remember Peavy missing most of May and all of June last season. :-?

I mean Peavy will never have a K/9 like Prior, and if you banking on Jacobs ERA repeating, that seems a bit foolish don't ya think?


wv - dont you know - the only thing that matters is what they did last yr. Since Prior was injured and Peavy had a great season, its bound to continue that way. Nevermind that Prior was considered by most people one of the best young arms to enter the majors in a decade - he's "injury prone", see? Nevermind that the surgery he underwent is very common and the success rate for a full recovery is extremely high. Peavy wasnt injured and had a better season - therefore he should be ranked higher. Ben Sheets too. ;-D

For those with sarcasm detectors, they should be going off right about now.
;-7


Peavy is a solid young pitcher in a fantastic pitchers' ballpark. Prior is an amazing young pitcher coming off an injury in the toughest offensive division in the NL, possibly in the Majors. I will admit that Peavy was borderline above Prior, but I just trust him more this season for some reason...call it personal preference I guess.


fair enough ...

as AKhomebrewer said, its hard to rank anybody in December, much less an "Injury Prone" ;-7 pitcher.
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Postby slomo007 » Thu Dec 23, 2004 12:35 pm

Tavish wrote:
wrveres wrote:Ok now don't get me wrong, I am a huge Jacob Peavy fan. But may I ask, what is the rational as to rating him higher than Mark Prior? Is it injury concerns? Cus I clearly remember Peavy missing most of May and all of June last season. :-?

I mean Peavy will never have a K/9 like Prior, and if you banking on Jacobs ERA repeating, that seems a bit foolish don't ya think?


For much the same reason I would take Peavy over Sheets or Zambrano. God knows all the pitchers has great talent but I am completely unsold on how good any of them will be in 2005. I err on the side of the park they pitch in and that puts Peavy ahead. From the looks of things with so many having Prior #1 or #2 I most likely won't even have to make that choice.


Yup, I agree. The bottom line is that it doesn't matter if I have Prior ranked 6th, or 7th...b/c someone will take him in the first few rounds most likely.
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Postby Tavish » Thu Dec 23, 2004 12:36 pm

Cornbread Maxwell wrote:wv - dont you know - the only thing that matters is what they did last yr.


You are completely right. It is much better to go on what players did two years ago.
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Postby Cornbread Maxwell » Thu Dec 23, 2004 12:55 pm

Tavish wrote:
Cornbread Maxwell wrote:wv - dont you know - the only thing that matters is what they did last yr.


You are completely right. It is much better to go on what players did two years ago.


Well, Im certainly going to factor it into the equation instead of ignoring it like many who dabble in fantasy sports are too willing to do. Fantasy baseball in its essence is a return to the mean game, and if one yr is your sample size you are going to be wrong more often than right.

How many guys lowered their ERA by 2 in their second full season in the majors and kept it at that level?
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Postby Tavish » Thu Dec 23, 2004 1:02 pm

Cornbread Maxwell wrote:
Tavish wrote:
Cornbread Maxwell wrote:wv - dont you know - the only thing that matters is what they did last yr.


You are completely right. It is much better to go on what players did two years ago.


Well, Im certainly going to factor it into the equation instead of ignoring it like many who dabble in fantasy sports are too willing to do. Fantasy baseball in its essence is a return to the mean game, and if one yr is your sample size you are going to be wrong more often than right.

How many guys lowered their ERA by 2 in their second full season in the majors and kept it at that level?


As I said I'm not at all sold that Peavy will be at the same level he was last season. What I was curious about is why you found it comical that people would rate Peavy's one year sample size higher than Prior's one year sample size.
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Postby Cornbread Maxwell » Thu Dec 23, 2004 2:17 pm

Tavish wrote:
Cornbread Maxwell wrote:
Tavish wrote:
Cornbread Maxwell wrote:wv - dont you know - the only thing that matters is what they did last yr.


You are completely right. It is much better to go on what players did two years ago.


Well, Im certainly going to factor it into the equation instead of ignoring it like many who dabble in fantasy sports are too willing to do. Fantasy baseball in its essence is a return to the mean game, and if one yr is your sample size you are going to be wrong more often than right.

How many guys lowered their ERA by 2 in their second full season in the majors and kept it at that level?


As I said I'm not at all sold that Peavy will be at the same level he was last season. What I was curious about is why you found it comical that people would rate Peavy's one year sample size higher than Prior's one year sample size.



I found it comical because of the overemphasis Ive seen lately around here on last yrs stats in general - that was the entire argument. I really dont want to get into it too much, but I just get the impression that a few of the more vocal posters around here are hyping players based on a small track record instead of a more logical historical approach. Again, I dont feel like getting into it too much, just an observation.
As for Prior vs. Peavy, you made a solid point about their respective track records since neither has that much history to go on. Maybe its a bad case example. Personally I consider Prior the absolute best young pitcher in the game today - bar none. He's simply in a class of his own. Now thats not a knock against Peavy since he showed last yr how good he could be. All I know is the media hype surrounding each, the times I've watched them pitch, and the stats they show. Given those things, give me Prior.
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Postby KULCAT » Thu Dec 23, 2004 3:02 pm

If i were to pick know i would take the risk and pick Prior early. The safe approach of course would be to wait till spring training but if does well there youre probably not gonna get him.
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Postby NZF » Thu Dec 23, 2004 3:42 pm

Cornbread Maxwell wrote:Does anyone else see the heavy emphasis placed on last season's stats again?

We go through this every yr - sorry - just a bit amuzing, I fall into the trap as well.


It's always going to be this way for the majority. Probably more so for pitchers than hitters as well. With so many stud pitchers to chose from this season, and so many question marks over a number of them, I doubt I will be taking any of them with my first rounder.

Prior is still my overall first pick amongst pitchers. I do think he will suffer from poor run support which may affect his WIN column slightly, I still have him on top ahead of Santana and Randy J. If Randy does end up in New York, he then becomes a standout No.1 IMO.
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Postby chadxor » Thu Dec 23, 2004 3:45 pm

am i the only one who isn't going to touch randy with a fifteen foot pole? i have a feeling he'll go down sooner or later in the season.
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Postby Rico The Retard » Thu Dec 23, 2004 3:50 pm

im really high on prior right now for some reason and the only pitchers i would take ahead of him are Santana and RJ
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