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Alfonso Soriano...

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Postby J35J » Wed Dec 22, 2004 5:42 pm

If he bats third with Young and Blalock in front and Tex and Hid behind i can easily see:

A. Soriano 0.28 32hr 105rbi 100run 25sb

and if he stays at the 3 spot all year his rbi could go over 110

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Postby LBJackal » Wed Dec 22, 2004 11:04 pm

Yep, I'd be happy with 20-25 SB's if he was my first rounder. That's assuming his power stats go back to what I expect them to; 35+ HR, great RBI and decent R considering his pitiful OBA. He's not that great a real life ballplayer when you think about it :-? I mean he's good, but not near as good as we think he is because of his fantasy value.
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Postby TheYanks04 » Wed Dec 22, 2004 11:34 pm

Given the other first round options available, I would not get anywhere near Soriano. Say what you will but Jeff Jent outproduced him last season and his rbi and run numbers were way way down despite being in a decent Tex lineup. ANd he is not likely to steal more than 20-25 now. Why pick him over a Manny or a Helton? Take Manny or Helton or whoever and grab Kent or Lorretta or Marcus Giles later in the draft.
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Postby kimchi_chigae » Wed Dec 22, 2004 11:41 pm

yanksareback2 wrote:He doesn't neccesarily have the same protection as the yankee lineup but Texas has a damn good lineup. He will have young and Blalock hitting in front of him again and texiera and Hidalgo behind him


i agree. texas has a pretty good lineup, so if the question is about protection, i think he'll have all the protection he needs. i predicted a big second hald for soriano last year and that didn't happen. i think he's still a 1st round pick, but not in the spot he was a year ago.
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Postby ajgnydc722 » Wed Dec 22, 2004 11:58 pm

Considering the 2B pool is a crap-pit, what pick would you take Sori? I'm in a 10 teamer and am wondering if I should try to get a late round pick and snag somebody and Sori...
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Postby TheYanks04 » Thu Dec 23, 2004 1:31 am

Well it all comes down to draft strategy. I have never liked to gamble with top 5 or 6 round picks. I like as sure a thing as possible. And having a 1st rounder perform like an 6-8th rounder is a serious hit (take it from someone who lost a title in oneleague last year thanks to Soriano and Sexson...never again).

You never know who will stick it to you or who will bounce back, but in the first round, with alternatives like Helton and Manny, why mess around with someone like Soriano that could repeat his 8th round pick (give or take) numbers again just as easily as he could bounce? 2b is garbage this year, but it is generally better to pick best player available the first 6 to 8 rounds and then look to fill in. If Jeff Kent or Loretta or Marcus Giles are around at a decent spot, then you grab them and lock down 2b...if not then you play it like a C and spend the high pick elsewhere and go with a Vidro or Castillo or Reyes or or Bellhorn in the later rounds. That is my 2 cents worth for what it is worth. Soriano is just way too risky a high pick for me and he would have to slip to round 4 for me to be tempted...and he will never get that far down. Let someone else assume the risk.
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Postby tlef316 » Thu Dec 23, 2004 1:39 am

i'll be looking to grab the guy in the mid second round in every draft im in. I think those that are that lucky will be laughing all the way to the bank next season.

He wont hit 40-40, but i think 35-25 with a .280 average and 100+ runs is a very attainable goal in that ballpark/lineup/division

at second base, that is huge
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Postby TheYanks04 » Thu Dec 23, 2004 1:48 am

Why? I find it interesting that a player that by any measure was a sizeable bust last year is somehow assumed by many to bounce? Maybe he will, but I hardly think it is worth taking him over a Manny Ramirez for instance or even a solid round 2 pick. What is the upside of Soriano over say a Sheffield or RJ or Rolen or Schmidt value-wise when factored against the risk of a bust? Position scarcity is something that it is not wise to overly pay for in the early rounds. Risk factors need to be weighed in and the player that takes undue risk early is asking to lose. Like any bad bet, sometimes it pays off handsomely, but more often it ends up burning you. Drafts and leagues are won in the mid to late rounds and on the wire. Leagues are lost in the early rounds with poor choices. That is my 2 cents worth at least.
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Postby Amazinz » Thu Dec 23, 2004 2:16 am

At 2B Soriano is still a first round pick easy. You can draft him after 5/6 and know that you got good value. 2nd round is a steal.
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Postby slomo007 » Thu Dec 23, 2004 2:38 am

Amazinz wrote:At 2B Soriano is still a first round pick easy. You can draft him after 5/6 and know that you got good value. 2nd round is a steal.


I think I'll agree for the most part. I probably wouldn't draft him until early second round, but I would imagine that Amazinz is right and he'll go mid-first round in most drafts due to 2b scarcity.

I was a Soriano owner last year :~( but at least he stayed healthy till the very end. Honestly I'd rather have someone who you can rely on to stay healthy than a big name player who has a high chance of getting hurt (ie, Manny). For some reason, those guys seem to scare me away because a slumping stud is better than an injured stud.
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