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Teixiera projections?

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Teixiera projections?

Postby XTSilver » Tue Dec 21, 2004 3:25 pm

We've already got a post on the other side of the Texas infield so how bout the big gun at 1st?
I've seen drafts where he was taken as high as 2nd round this year.
I say .285 110r 45hr 125rbis and hes only gonna get better.
With the roids crack down these numbers are gonna be even better relative to the rest of the league.
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Re: Teixiera projections?

Postby kentx12 » Tue Dec 21, 2004 3:27 pm

XTSilver wrote:We've already got a post on the other side of the Texas infield so how bout the big gun at 1st?
I've seen drafts where he was taken as high as 2nd round this year.
I say .285 110r 45hr 125rbis and hes only gonna get better.
With the roids crack down these numbers are gonna be even better relative to the rest of the league.



your projections look a little high to me. I would say more like

.280 100r 40 hr 110 rbi. Still very good numbers if he can do it.
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Postby LCBOY » Tue Dec 21, 2004 3:32 pm

Why does everone see Big Tex as a sub .300 hitter? He has hit for a high average in college and his one year in the minors. He's not a wild swinger. He improved his walk rate by 33% and dropped his K rate from 2003 to 2004. I see him as a .290-.310 type guy. His upper range could be .330. Just my $0.02
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Postby Secret Avatar » Tue Dec 21, 2004 3:41 pm

I doubt BA in college or the minors is indicative of a player's potential in the majors. Most elite hitters never even went to college. That being said, I don't know how Tex's BA will shape up. But if you've got him up to 330 with power, that would make him among the best of the best. I agree Tex has got some real potential, and I'd draft him pretty high, but I would hold off on crowning him among the best of the best until he actually puts up some numbers that show he can hit anywhere near 330 with power.
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Postby LCBOY » Tue Dec 21, 2004 5:50 pm

Secret Avatar wrote:I doubt BA in college or the minors is indicative of a player's potential in the majors. Most elite hitters never even went to college.

Sabermetrics has clearly shown that minor league stats are a strong indicator of future major league performance. If they didn't they why do we ooh-and-ah over a hot propect with huge minor league numbers? Everyone has been raving about Dallas McPherson. No one is saying "Yeah he had huge numbers in the minors but he'll suck in the majors bacause minor league numbers don't mean anthing."

A process called Major League Equivalency (MLE) has been around a while. It determines how a player might perform in the majors given his minor league numbers. http://www.baseballprospectus.com does a lot of work in this area.

No one has really studied college stats. I'm sure it's possible at least theortically but much study and analysis has to be done.

Lots of elite hitters went to college :

Barry Bonds
Todd Helton
Nomar Garciaparra
Frank Thomas
Mark McGwire
Rafeal Palmerio
Jeff Kent
Lance Berkman
Mike Piazza

...just to name a few... ;-D
Last edited by LCBOY on Fri Dec 24, 2004 3:38 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Postby J35J » Tue Dec 21, 2004 5:56 pm

I think both of you (XTSilver and kentx) are about right. I put him right inbetween your guys' predictions! He is a stud!

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Re: Teixiera projections?

Postby raiders_umpire » Tue Dec 21, 2004 6:25 pm

kentx12 wrote:
.280 100r 40 hr 110 rbi. Still very good numbers if he can do it.



these numbers look good to me, especially if u can grab him in the 3rd-4th round or so....... ;-D
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ok, and now what...

Postby GreenMonsterGoon » Fri Dec 24, 2004 10:59 am

What you all say is quite true. I'm counting on him sliding. Do you guys really think the average fantasy guy is on top of it like you guys are understand where Tex is going as a player and what he'll do. I'm counting on grabbing him in round 5 of my 5x5 12 team league.
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Postby Amazinz » Fri Dec 24, 2004 12:33 pm

Well when you hit 38 HRs, I don't think you're a secret anymore. So I'd plan on most people being aware of him and I don't think he'll last until the 5th. ;-)
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Postby -Slap- » Fri Dec 24, 2004 1:43 pm

I think Tex is a solid pick in the bottom of round two and great value in the top of round three.
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