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Hudson to Atlanta Done!

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Postby Cornbread Maxwell » Fri Dec 17, 2004 3:23 pm

GSes wrote:
Cornbread Maxwell wrote:With Crosby batting cleanup, what kind of projections do you see from him?


I dont see Crosby batting cleanup. As it stands right now

1. Kotsay
2. Kendall
3. Chavez
4. Durazo
5. Crosby
6. Hatteberg
7. Byrnes
8. Swisher/Thomas
9. Ellis/Ginter/Scutaro


My bad - I completely read that earlier post wrong. Still - what do you see from Crosby this yr?

Better yet, what about Kendall, Chavez, and Durazo? Gses, do you have projections for these guys? How about the PStaff - same question.
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Postby GSes » Fri Dec 17, 2004 7:13 pm

Transmogrifier wrote:The question I have for you, GSes: Why trade Hudson now? Why not at least wait till July? Why not ride him into the playoffs with a more experienced SS, a better catcher, a closer for the whole year? Why not do with Hudson what you did for Giambi and Tejada--try to win with them? The only way I see why you trade Hudson now is to make your team for THIS YEAR better--and Beane didn't do that.


Well I have to agree with you on that, I dont know why Beanne didn't just do the same here he did with giambi and miggy. It worked before didn't it? The A's made the playoffs both of those players final years.

I think Beanne feels as if loosing hudson dosent hurt because he has harden to fill the void. He figures the big three was hudson, mulder, zito now its harden, mulder, zito.

Im not saying I agree with the trade b/c I agree we should have done what transmo said and kept him for 05 unless trading him helped us this season

Im not saying we got the best deal for him, because I truly believed Billy could have gotten more (ala marcus giles)

I am simply saying the trade isnt as bad as people make it out to be, the A's are still just fine without hudson and these 3 prospects can help us in 05 and the future.
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Postby GSes » Fri Dec 17, 2004 7:19 pm

Cornbread Maxwell wrote:
GSes wrote:
Cornbread Maxwell wrote:With Crosby batting cleanup, what kind of projections do you see from him?


I dont see Crosby batting cleanup. As it stands right now

1. Kotsay
2. Kendall
3. Chavez
4. Durazo
5. Crosby
6. Hatteberg
7. Byrnes
8. Swisher/Thomas
9. Ellis/Ginter/Scutaro


My bad - I completely read that earlier post wrong. Still - what do you see from Crosby this yr?

Better yet, what about Kendall, Chavez, and Durazo? Gses, do you have projections for these guys? How about the PStaff - same question.




projections

Kotsay 90 runs, 8hr, 60rbi, 300avg
kendall 90 runs, 5hr, 60rbi, 300avg
chavez 100 runs, 35hr, 115rbi, 290avg
durazo 85 runs, 28hr, 90rbi, 300avg
hatteberg 75runs, 13hr, 70rbi, 270avg
crosby 80runs, 25hr, 80rbi, 270avg
byrnes 80runs, 20hr, 75rbi, 275avg

Mulder
18-7
3.40 ERA
1.17 WHIP
170 K's

Zito
15-9
3.60 ERA
1.20 WHIP
170 K's

Harden
15-7
3.50 ERA
1.20 WHIP
170 K's

Blanton/Cruz/ whoever else
I dont know, its not projectable

Dotel
40 saves
3.00 ERA
1.10 WHIP
110 K's
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Postby ramble2 » Fri Dec 17, 2004 8:06 pm

Transmogrifier wrote:The question I have for you, GSes: Why trade Hudson now? Why not at least wait till July? Why not ride him into the playoffs with a more experienced SS, a better catcher, a closer for the whole year? Why not do with Hudson what you did for Giambi and Tejada--try to win with them? The only way I see why you trade Hudson now is to make your team for THIS YEAR better--and Beane didn't do that.


It's hard to say what another man was thinking, but here are some thoughts I had about why Beane didn't ride the Hudson train in 2005. It's become increasingly difficult to get good value for players that you trade mid-season in their contract year. Part of that is the current economic climate - cheap prospects are extremely valuable. Look at the Beltran trade last year. I actually thought that KC did just fine, but people were pretty down on them for not getting more talent for moving Beltran. Beane probably felt that the winter meetings were as likely a time as any to get the most value for a contract year player.

Beane's also probably counting on the development of a few of the young arms to take Hudson's place. Something similar to GSes' point (without calling everyone else idiots! :-D ).

So why move Hudson now? The A's took public relation poundings after failing to sign Miggy and Giambi. Just got hammered. Clearly they had no intention of signing Hudson to a long-term deal. Perhaps they wanted to avoid another PR blitz. At least this way they can come out and say they tried to get replacement parts (although it's worth noting that I've yet to receive any A's email about the trade - and this from an organization that sends an email when they move Ellis to the DL). They can sell it as a 'Moneyball' move, and hope the local media buy into the story.

So what do you think? Anyone buying it?
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Postby ramble2 » Fri Dec 17, 2004 8:13 pm

GSes wrote:Like I been trying to say all of you guys who keep saying Billy lost his mind bla bla............you guys are the idiots. He isnt playing Fantasy Baseball here, this is real life GM'ng, the A's have VERY LITTLE money only about 60 million to spend per season. This trade is good for this SEASON and long term.

I dont think Peter Gammons is very smart but he is CORRECT in this article on why the A's got a good deal

http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/gammons/story?id=1947932


GSes, I'm a big Beane backer, but I'm not going to refrain from criticizing him if I think he made a mistake. Everyone should give Beane credit for one thing at least, he's able to admit when he makes a mistake. Witness his moving of Rhodes this off-season (a great move, imo). That's one of the biggest reasons for trusting him to run the team - and a huge deficiency of so many other GMs.

My main criticism of the trade, as you can read above, is that for years the A's have been making noise about keeping Hudson around. And I don't buy that they can't afford it - MLB owners are just about the least reliable people around when it comes to transparency and forthrightness of finances. Leaving aside finances, though, that Gammons article is very interesting.

I'd much rather see the A's with Hudson this season. The players we got in return are fine, but would be much easier to replace than is Hudson. That was part of my point in the frustration with getting Cruz now, as opposed to last year when he was in the Cubs doghouse (I was a fan then too, based on his K/IP ratio). The nagging question I have is whether we overpayed for Cruz et al, when Beane might have been able to get other underappreciated players elsewhere.

Right now I'm willing to remain open-minded about the trade. I'm in a wait-and-see mode. We certainly have a much stronger bullpen then we did last year, which will help us compete. And without Hudson's salary, perhaps Beane will make another move this off-season, or be able to take on salary mid-season to make a run at the AL West.
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