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Postby LBJackal » Fri Dec 17, 2004 12:02 am

djacks wrote:
Amazinz wrote:... let someone else have Arod in the 1st, I wouldn't grab him until the 2nd.


Then you obviously wouldn't be grabbing him...because he's be long gone. Regardless of league type A-Rod has to be a top 5 pick at the very least.


Why? Because he was in the past? His SB's are gonna drop, and he might not even be the best 3B (he wasn't last year). Chavez, Rolen, and Beltre could all outperform him. People have associated him with #1 for so long that it's hard to take him out of the elite players but I know I won't be touching A-Rod if I have a top 5 pick.
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Postby Amazinz » Fri Dec 17, 2004 12:05 am

djacks wrote:
Amazinz wrote:... let someone else have Arod in the 1st, I wouldn't grab him until the 2nd.

Then you obviously wouldn't be grabbing him...because he's be long gone.

That's the plan. ;-)
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Postby TheYanks04 » Fri Dec 17, 2004 12:06 am

What makes you think Arod will not get his 20+ SBs? The Yanks under Torre will run, esp if the game situation calls fo it. He let Arod swipe 28 and he was not doing those to pad his stats. Jeter runs when healthy. IF anything, torre let's his top players go too often.
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Postby raiders_umpire » Fri Dec 17, 2004 12:07 am

i cant believe tejada fell to 14..... that is more shocking to me than sheets at 11 or aramis at 30........i figured on tejada being a lock for top 8 in almost all leagues due to position and the year he had.....
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Postby LBJackal » Fri Dec 17, 2004 12:34 am

TheYanks04 wrote:What makes you think Arod will not get his 20+ SBs? The Yanks under Torre will run, esp if the game situation calls fo it. He let Arod swipe 28 and he was not doing those to pad his stats. Jeter runs when healthy. IF anything, torre let's his top players go too often.


I don't think he'll get as many attempts to steal... and with men on base ahead of him all the time (Jeter and Beltran - yeah I'm assuming Beltran goes to NY) he won't have an open base as often as last year. I don't even see him getting 20 SB's. There's also age, and although he's only turning 30, SB's start to decline at age 24.
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Postby dleoboyd » Fri Dec 17, 2004 12:45 am

Who cares about his SB? To me anytime he steals a base it's just a bonus stat. I agree with the guys that say his steals will probably drop next season, but I think you can still pencil him in for 10-15. However, A-Rod's value lies in his bat. Anyone who thinks last year's numbers are going to be the norm is crazy. Rodriguez is only 29 and has AVERAGED 42 HR/yr over the last 9 seasons. I fully expect 40-50 HR and a .300+ BA next season. He is just way too talented for anything less.
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Postby TheYanks04 » Fri Dec 17, 2004 12:50 am

I can see 40-45 Hrs...50 is a bit much, IMO.
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Postby LBJackal » Fri Dec 17, 2004 12:53 am

dleoboyd wrote:Who cares about his SB? To me anytime he steals a base it's just a bonus stat. I agree with the guys that say his steals will probably drop next season, but I think you can still pencil him in for 10-15. However, A-Rod's value lies in his bat. Anyone who thinks last year's numbers are going to be the norm is crazy. Rodriguez is only 29 and has AVERAGED 42 HR/yr over the last 9 seasons. I fully expect 40-50 HR and a .300+ BA next season. He is just way too talented for anything less.


Without his SB's he isn't even first round IMO. Other than SB's, I wouldn't be surprised to see Chavez, Rolen, or Beltre do better than him. Yeah 2004 was an off year but he isn't in Texas anymore. He went from an extreme hitters park to a pitchers park. I'd say he's the #1 3B, but should be drafted near the end of the first round, maybe about 10th overall.
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Postby TheYanks04 » Fri Dec 17, 2004 12:59 am

And yet a guy whose numbers dropped through the floor going in the other direction to an extreme hitter's park (Soriano) is still professed as a round 1 or 2 pick by many? Soriano's numbers were an aberation but Arod's were not? I fail to see the consistency in the logic. If anything, Arod should be no worse than his numbers in 04 with maybe a few less SBS but likely a few more Hrs as he is not likely to get off to the bad start he had in 04 again in 05. If anything Soriano may improve, but to double his SBs and massively improve his runs and rbis to the level of a first rounder is a bit of a reach.
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Postby sisyphus » Fri Dec 17, 2004 1:05 am

LB, It's pretty clear you don't like A-Rod. Me thinks you have a bias. I don't like his lip-stick wearing, ass either. However, he is top 5 without a doubt. There are plenty of good 3b out there, but none that put up the power numbers he does. And Adrian "Walk Year" Beltre does not count.
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