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Who in your opinion are the overall top ten? (5x5)

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Postby mocabeenow » Thu Dec 16, 2004 1:04 pm

1. Pujols
2. Beltran
3. Vlad
4. A-Rod
5. Tejada
6. Helton
7. Soriano
8. Bonds
9. Ramirez
10. Santana

11. Prior
12. Abreu
13. Sheffield
14. RJ
15. Ortiz

I thought i would throw in my next five.. I still like Prior for a 2nd round pick. Last year he was the first pitcher gone, this year.. I think he's a little bit behind the Cy Young winner.

~Moc
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Postby Erboes » Thu Dec 16, 2004 1:10 pm

LBJackal wrote:
Erboes wrote:I would have Tribe-fan explain all this, but he has been banned from posting, and since I do not know how this value formula works I cannot fully explain it. I do know that position scarcity and other variables are included in the value formula, so our rankings are not different from our projected values. You may disagree with this, but that is our philosophy. The reason is, we disagree with the common practice of most sites and magazines of changing rankings/projections to fit into common thought. In other words, most other rankings will be fairly close to what has been posted on this thread because they do not want to offend anyone. Our method may not be easy to swallow now, but it does give a more honest sense to things than the usual in the box method.


Yeah I'm not disagreeing with the projection method, and I'm not sugesting you change them to fit in with the other rankings. But for a situation like closers, who generally are volatile in ERA and Saves, it doesn't seem like the actual value they're expected to earn is what they should be drafted as. I'm not sure if there's another example I can use, because generally RP's are the only people with a sample size small enough that fluctuation is so great, plus the fact that save opportunities are largely random.

I'm curious because I'm still looking for a way to rank all the players once the projections are done.

BTW why was Tribe-Fan banned? He seemed like a guy that wouldn't fly off the handle and cause himself to be banned. Did he let you post under his ID or something? :-D


Tribe-fan was banned for asking for writers on this site.

I don't agree with your assessment with closers by the way. All pitcher's ERA's fluctuate, but I don't believe closers fluctuate more than starters, at least in the good ones' cases. Maybe if you are talking about a Wickman or someone, that is different. In the case of Gagne, he is ranked $5 higher than any other closer because we have him with more saves than anyone else, plus he has a good K rate. It is true that his saves are dependent on the team, but the Dodgers are one of the safer teams when it comes to save ops, so we are confident in the ranking.

We also value closers more than other sites due to a statistical study we did on them. Gagne of '03 was far and away the best fantasy player and in the top 8 last season despite some slippage. We think he is one of the safer picks out there and could be taken in the first round with a good return on your investment. He is the best closer out there by a good margin and our projections/rankings reflect that.

I should also point out that it is up to our subscribers to do whatever they want with our projections/rankings. If you don't take starting pitchers in the first round then don't take one of them. It's all up to the subscriber. We are just here to give info on how we think things will shake out at the end of the season. The rest is up to them.
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Postby Secret Avatar » Thu Dec 16, 2004 1:17 pm

I think all these lists are premature at this point. There are too many potential top-10 guys who don't have definate homes next year and their stats will be materially effected. The Unit, Beltran, and Beltre are the obvious players in this category, but so are guys like Helton who is not likely to be traded but whose team sucked last year and might suck even more this year, giving him less RBI and run opportunities.

Also: Shilling, who is scaring me with his ominous announcement that he might miss an unspecified number of games at the beginning of the year.
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Postby LBJackal » Thu Dec 16, 2004 1:25 pm

Erboes wrote:
LBJackal wrote:
Erboes wrote:I would have Tribe-fan explain all this, but he has been banned from posting, and since I do not know how this value formula works I cannot fully explain it. I do know that position scarcity and other variables are included in the value formula, so our rankings are not different from our projected values. You may disagree with this, but that is our philosophy. The reason is, we disagree with the common practice of most sites and magazines of changing rankings/projections to fit into common thought. In other words, most other rankings will be fairly close to what has been posted on this thread because they do not want to offend anyone. Our method may not be easy to swallow now, but it does give a more honest sense to things than the usual in the box method.


Yeah I'm not disagreeing with the projection method, and I'm not sugesting you change them to fit in with the other rankings. But for a situation like closers, who generally are volatile in ERA and Saves, it doesn't seem like the actual value they're expected to earn is what they should be drafted as. I'm not sure if there's another example I can use, because generally RP's are the only people with a sample size small enough that fluctuation is so great, plus the fact that save opportunities are largely random.

I'm curious because I'm still looking for a way to rank all the players once the projections are done.

BTW why was Tribe-Fan banned? He seemed like a guy that wouldn't fly off the handle and cause himself to be banned. Did he let you post under his ID or something? :-D


Tribe-fan was banned for asking for writers on this site.

I don't agree with your assessment with closers by the way. All pitcher's ERA's fluctuate, but I don't believe closers fluctuate more than starters, at least in the good ones' cases. Maybe if you are talking about a Wickman or someone, that is different. In the case of Gagne, he is ranked $5 higher than any other closer because we have him with more saves than anyone else, plus he has a good K rate. It is true that his saves are dependent on the team, but the Dodgers are one of the safer teams when it comes to save ops, so we are confident in the ranking.

We also value closers more than other sites due to a statistical study we did on them. Gagne of '03 was far and away the best fantasy player and in the top 8 last season despite some slippage. We think he is one of the safer picks out there and could be taken in the first round with a good return on your investment. He is the best closer out there by a good margin and our projections/rankings reflect that.

I should also point out that it is up to our subscribers to do whatever they want with our projections/rankings. If you don't take starting pitchers in the first round then don't take one of them. It's all up to the subscriber. We are just here to give info on how we think things will shake out at the end of the season. The rest is up to them.


Yep, thanks. Was looking for your take on the closer situation. I guess for guys like Gagne, their ERA's are steady but a couple HR's in bad situations and a closer's ERA can skyrocket. An example is Dotel, who I think will be a steal this year because of all the people who just look at his ERA. is K/BB was awesome just like usual, but his HR/9 in Oakland jumped up to 1.62 when in his 4 years as a reliever in Houston, with that short porch, he only had a 0.70 HR/9.

I'll still target the late-round closers and hope to get around the same save totals at a small loss of ERA help and K's. Dotel might be the one "premier" closer I go for, although if I can't get him I'd go for another Percival/Cordero/Izzy type who aren't so hyped up like Gagne, Lidge, and K-Rod. The rest will probably be Baez/Kolb/Affeldt types, and maybe if it's a deep league a flier on Ayala because I think he'll get the job. It'd have to be really deep though.

OK I'm done thinking out loud.
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Postby NZF » Fri Dec 17, 2004 4:03 am

Erboes wrote:Rotoguys top ten based on $ values:

Pujols: $46
Guerrero $42
R. Johnson $41
Schmidt $41
Santana $40
Prior $39
sheets $37
Helton $36
Beltre $36
gagne $36
Crawford $35

I guess that is 11. Before anyone has a cow, these rankings are purely arbitrary. We create the projections and the formula spits the values out, which then make the rankings. I am not making any recommendations, just adding to the thread.


I'm thinking you've forgotten to include Beltran. If not then I would assume he will now get in ahead of the Seattle bound Beltre.

Anyway, 5 pitchers in the Top 11. Add to that list Schilling and Pedro, and there is an unprecedented depth of stud pitchers in 2005. I've never been a fan of using my first rounder on a pitcher, and there is no way I will be this coming season either.

The way things are shaping up, I can see myself getting hitters like Sheffield at worst in the early to mid second round.
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