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Who in your opinion are the overall top ten? (5x5)

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Postby LBJackal » Thu Dec 16, 2004 12:15 am

New Zealand Fan wrote:
LBJackal wrote:Without the SB's Soriano isn't 1st round material. Maybe he steals more next year, who knows. But I wouldn't bet on it. I'd be much happier getting solid production form my #1 pick then being stuck with a bust just because he plays a shallow position. His BA isn't anything special and his R and RBI aren't either. I'd look for his HR total to increase for sure, but still, there are tons of better options for a first round pick.


Soriano was far from a bust in 2004. He batted over .312 at home.

Huh? Soriano was one of the biggest busts in baseball last year. His home BA doesn't make up for his overall BA, HR, or lack of SB's, RBI, and R.

A 40 / 40 threat, at by far the weakest position, is still worthy of a Top 10 pick.

If you still consider him a 40/40 threat, yeah he has top 10 value. I don't think he'll approach 40 SB's. 40 HR's maybe. But not likely.

You rate Beltran No. 1, yet one of the few guys around that can potentially do what he can, suddenly drops out of the Top 10 after one year below his lofty standards and that after playing for a new team.

Soriano can't come close to Beltran's SB totals IMO. I wouldn't be surprised to see Beltran double Soriano in SB's and crush him in R as well. I mean something along the lines of 40 more R for Beltran.

No lessons have been learnt. You are still putting way too much emphasis on the most current season's performances without looking at the big picture.

Well, I've considered that. But it seems Texas just does not let Soriano run, just like they didn't let A-Rod run. I don't question his power, and definately think it'll increase, but the SB's I don't see a big enough change. He switched teams with A-Rod and his SB's plummeted while A-Rod's skyrocketed. I don't think that's a coincidence.
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Postby trevisc » Thu Dec 16, 2004 7:19 am

LBJackal wrote:and crush him in R as well. I mean something along the lines of 40 more R for Beltran.


How can you say this for sure when you don't even know where Beltran will sign? Or are you just assuming he's gonna be a Yankee?
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Postby Cornbread Maxwell » Thu Dec 16, 2004 11:28 am

New Zealand Fan wrote:You rate Beltran No. 1, yet one of the few guys around that can potentially do what he can, suddenly drops out of the Top 10 after one year below his lofty standards and that after playing for a new team. No lessons have been learnt. You are still putting way too much emphasis on the most current season's performances without looking at the big picture.


I agree with NZF here - way too much put into last yrs performance with Soriano - as expected in fantasy circles. This sort of overreaction happens all the time. Hell, a 2B that has 40/30 potential - let alone 40/40 - should go in the 1st rd of every draft this yr - but he wont because people will put too much emphasis on his disapointing yr last yr. Not me.

The slow keeper draft that was posted - whoever snagged Soriano and Abreu on the turn stole the first 2 rds. ;-D
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Postby LBJackal » Thu Dec 16, 2004 11:59 am

trevisc wrote:
LBJackal wrote:and crush him in R as well. I mean something along the lines of 40 more R for Beltran.


How can you say this for sure when you don't even know where Beltran will sign? Or are you just assuming he's gonna be a Yankee?


I'm assuming he's going to be a Yankee. Even if he's not he should still get a ton more R than Soriano.
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Postby LBJackal » Thu Dec 16, 2004 12:16 pm

Cornbread Maxwell wrote:
New Zealand Fan wrote:You rate Beltran No. 1, yet one of the few guys around that can potentially do what he can, suddenly drops out of the Top 10 after one year below his lofty standards and that after playing for a new team. No lessons have been learnt. You are still putting way too much emphasis on the most current season's performances without looking at the big picture.


I agree with NZF here - way too much put into last yrs performance with Soriano - as expected in fantasy circles. This sort of overreaction happens all the time. Hell, a 2B that has 40/30 potential - let alone 40/40 - should go in the 1st rd of every draft this yr - but he wont because people will put too much emphasis on his disapointing yr last yr. Not me.

The slow keeper draft that was posted - whoever snagged Soriano and Abreu on the turn stole the first 2 rds. ;-D


So you guys think Soriano will increase his SB's by that much? By what reasoning, because he did it with the Yankees? He's a good base stealer but the Rangers don't run. Yeah he could get 25 SB's and 40 HR. That's very good, and is 1st round IMO. That's about his max though I think. A more reasonable prediction would be 35 HR and 20 SB's. If his BA, R, or RBI were more respectable, I'd say first round no problem. And even with the sub-100 R/RBI he could be worth a first round pick.

I wasn't draft him because people think his SB's are going to return to normal. Before reading this I figured he'd probably go in the top 5 or so, along with A-Rod, simply because that's where people are used to taking them. But it seems people are projecting him towards the end of the first round, which does seem reasonable. I just like to have a solid player with my first pick, and I don't consider Soriano a solid player. What if his SB's drop even lower? I can see that happening, and it would kill his value cosidering the only other stat he really excels in is HR. It'd definately be tempting to take him in the middle of the first round but I'd probably go with Abreu, Tejada, Manny, or somebody like that if they were there. Once I've made my list, I'll know what my top 10 is but as of now I've only done a chunk of the projections since it's exam time and I havn't begun ranking them based on the projections.
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Postby Erboes » Thu Dec 16, 2004 12:18 pm

Rotoguys top ten based on $ values:

Pujols: $46
Guerrero $42
R. Johnson $41
Schmidt $41
Santana $40
Prior $39
sheets $37
Helton $36
Beltre $36
gagne $36
Crawford $35

I guess that is 11. Before anyone has a cow, these rankings are purely arbitrary. We create the projections and the formula spits the values out, which then make the rankings. I am not making any recommendations, just adding to the thread.
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Postby thomasps3 » Thu Dec 16, 2004 12:19 pm

My top ten would be this:

Pujols
Vlad
Santana
Bonds
ARod
Beltran
Unit
Manny
Ortiz
Helton

However, if RJ goes to Yankees, I would rank Top 5
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Postby LBJackal » Thu Dec 16, 2004 12:32 pm

Erboes wrote:Rotoguys top ten based on $ values:

Pujols: $46
Guerrero $42
R. Johnson $41
Schmidt $41
Santana $40
Prior $39
sheets $37
Helton $36
Beltre $36
gagne $36
Crawford $35

I guess that is 11. Before anyone has a cow, these rankings are purely arbitrary. We create the projections and the formula spits the values out, which then make the rankings. I am not making any recommendations, just adding to the thread.


How do you guys do the rankings once you have the dollar values? Obviously a closer presumed to be worth $36 like Gagne wouldn't be drafted so high due to the volatility of their ERA and save totals, and the presumption that a lot of closers provide the similar high value (like kickers in football, but not to the same extent obviously).

I'm not doubting any of it, just wondering how you go about the rankings after the dollar values are done. Or are volatility and position scarcity taken into account with the dollar values?
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Postby Erboes » Thu Dec 16, 2004 12:47 pm

I would have Tribe-fan explain all this, but he has been banned from posting, and since I do not know how this value formula works I cannot fully explain it. I do know that position scarcity and other variables are included in the value formula, so our rankings are not different from our projected values. You may disagree with this, but that is our philosophy. The reason is, we disagree with the common practice of most sites and magazines of changing rankings/projections to fit into common thought. In other words, most other rankings will be fairly close to what has been posted on this thread because they do not want to offend anyone. Our method may not be easy to swallow now, but it does give a more honest sense to things than the usual in the box method.
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Postby LBJackal » Thu Dec 16, 2004 12:55 pm

Erboes wrote:I would have Tribe-fan explain all this, but he has been banned from posting, and since I do not know how this value formula works I cannot fully explain it. I do know that position scarcity and other variables are included in the value formula, so our rankings are not different from our projected values. You may disagree with this, but that is our philosophy. The reason is, we disagree with the common practice of most sites and magazines of changing rankings/projections to fit into common thought. In other words, most other rankings will be fairly close to what has been posted on this thread because they do not want to offend anyone. Our method may not be easy to swallow now, but it does give a more honest sense to things than the usual in the box method.


Yeah I'm not disagreeing with the projection method, and I'm not sugesting you change them to fit in with the other rankings. But for a situation like closers, who generally are volatile in ERA and Saves, it doesn't seem like the actual value they're expected to earn is what they should be drafted as. I'm not sure if there's another example I can use, because generally RP's are the only people with a sample size small enough that fluctuation is so great, plus the fact that save opportunities are largely random.

I'm curious because I'm still looking for a way to rank all the players once the projections are done.

BTW why was Tribe-Fan banned? He seemed like a guy that wouldn't fly off the handle and cause himself to be banned. Did he let you post under his ID or something? :-D
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