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Postby Dawgpound 1613 » Wed Dec 15, 2004 8:29 am

Well, if the "30% of balls in play fall as hits" stuff is correct, and I think it is close, then strikeout pitchers will generally be better than non-strikeout pitchers. If your K/9 is 5 vs 8, that's an extra hit, on average. When that bloop hit comes with two outs and the bases loaded, there's two runs. There's a reason high strikeout pitchers are generally your doiminant pitchers.

And to TownDrunk, again, Schmidt is good, Williams and Foppert are talented, but coming off injury. I have Foppert on my sleeper list, so I hope you are right that he becomes the 5th starter and that he's 100%. That said, they are not sure things right now.

As for Tomko, we'll have to disagree. I saw Loaiza in 2003, and he looked great as well. There was something different about him from what he had shown before that. Yet, in 2004, he was back to "normal". Was 2003 a fluke or not? Based on last year, I'll say fluke. As with Tomko, until he does more than pitch well in one half, I'm not ready to proclaim that he's turned the corner.
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Postby LBJackal » Wed Dec 15, 2004 11:49 am

Dawgpound 1613 wrote:Well, if the "30% of balls in play fall as hits" stuff is correct, and I think it is close, then strikeout pitchers will generally be better than non-strikeout pitchers.


Yeah it's not random, like the DIPS theory states, but it's pretty close to random. There are ways to control you BIPA (balls in play average) such as keeping the ball down in the zone if you have a good IF, changing speeds, locating pitches well, and having a good arsenal of pitches.

But for all intents and purposes, pitchers do not significantly affect their BIPA. They control K's, BB's, and HR's. So when you see a guy like Rueter it doesn't take long to realize he stinks since his K's and BB's are bad.

As for Tomko... we'll only be able to know once we see him pitch in 2005. Some say he'll pitch like the last 2 months of the 2004 season, some say he'll pitch like his entire 8 year career. I'm siding with the latter. Expecting an ERA below 4.50 seems unreasonable. But crazier things have happened.
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Postby stumpak » Wed Dec 15, 2004 12:06 pm

Interesting move. The only big payroll team desperate for a C is the Dodgers, who love his bat despite his other problems. I will bet a lot of money that he relocates a few hundred miles down the 101.
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Postby SHOCKandAWE » Wed Dec 15, 2004 4:06 pm

Maybe the Pirates will sign AJ. This siutation looks very promising!
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