Dawgpound 1613 wrote:Well, if the "30% of balls in play fall as hits" stuff is correct, and I think it is close, then strikeout pitchers will generally be better than non-strikeout pitchers.
Yeah it's not random, like the DIPS theory states, but it's pretty close to random. There are ways to control you BIPA (balls in play average) such as keeping the ball down in the zone if you have a good IF, changing speeds, locating pitches well, and having a good arsenal of pitches.
But for all intents and purposes, pitchers do not significantly affect their BIPA. They control K's, BB's, and HR's. So when you see a guy like Rueter it doesn't take long to realize he stinks since his K's and BB's are bad.
As for Tomko... we'll only be able to know once we see him pitch in 2005. Some say he'll pitch like the last 2 months of the 2004 season, some say he'll pitch like his entire 8 year career. I'm siding with the latter. Expecting an ERA below 4.50 seems unreasonable. But crazier things have happened.
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