I'm not so sure that he's going to fail. After Weaver, Brown & Vaz, it seems everyone thinks that every SP not named Randy Johnson is doomed to failure when they put on the pinstripes. I think his ERA will go up due to the DH, but I can't see how anyone can project a compete collapse based on other pitcher's perceived lack of performance. I remember when a move to the Yankees was seen as a positive. Now...not so much...unless your name is Randy Johnson. Look at the 3 "failures...
1. Weaver-Was the Tigers "Ace" before he arrived. Does that really mean alot?
2. Brown-Came in an old injury-prone pitcher on the decline. Yankees pretty much got what they paid for.
3. Vasquez-His home/road splits indicate that he was not in awe of pitching in New York. His struggles came on the road. His home #s were: 104.2 IP, 88 H, 81 K, 4.13 ERA, 1.09 WHIP. His ERA was a bit higher than maybe some projected, but everything else looks fine to me.
Perhaps people shold keep their expectations realistic. They'll be less likely to be disappointed. I, for one, think Wright will be just fine.
Wright will see his ERA go up as it is not only the AL with the DH but the AL East with a lot of teams that can hit. Not a lot of pitching mind you, but Boston and Baltimore and even the Delgado-less Jays and Devil Rays are not bad hitting teams. I would not predict a failure before I predict an injury though. He has never logged a lot of innings and has a long injury history. Since he came up in 97, Wright has logged over 180+ innings obly twice...last year at 186 and in 98 at 192. Never has he logged over 200 IPs.
For me it has nothing to do with the Yankees. I'd think he'd revert to a 5+ ERA no matter what team signed him, unless it was SD or Seattle, or some team with a great pitchers' park.
"Jack, will you call me, if you're able?"
"I've got your phone number written, in the back of my Bible."
I remember reading an article that gave some conreete mechanics reason for his breakthrough and indicated that it could be enduring. I wish I could remember what it was and where I read it, but it sounded reasonable enough to make me take him on as a throw in a trade two months ago...