#1 overall pick in a 5x5 dynasty league - Fantasy Baseball Cafe 2015 Fantasy Baseball Cafe
100% Deposit Bonus for Cafe Members!

Return to Baseball Leftovers

#1 overall pick in a 5x5 dynasty league

Moderator: Baseball Moderators

Postby SaintsOfTheDiamond » Tue Dec 07, 2004 12:34 pm

J35J wrote:In regards to Beltran and his SB going down. I don't know that I would agree, when he was in KC (I live in KC), he was pretty adamit? about keeping his SB up. He seemed to like his SB numbers over any numbers he had, so unless a manager "makes" him not steal as much he will continue to keep his SB numbers at at least 35-40 IMO. But with that being said I will go with what "I" think is the safer bet and take Pujols!

Jason


How much of that could be trying to pad the huge payday that's coming to him this offseason? I'm not saying that was his only motive, but being able to sell youself as a 40-40 guy will do wonders for your bank account. That being said, I don't really see his SB's taking a huge hit unless he goes to somewhere like OAK or a place where SB's don't really figure into the philosophy. I think 35-30ish (HR-SB) is a safe prediction. ;-D
Image
Member #4 of the Inaugural Yadier Molina Fan Club!!!
SaintsOfTheDiamond
Hall of Fame Hero
Hall of Fame Hero

Fantasy ExpertCafe WriterCafe Ranker
Posts: 6480
Joined: 6 May 2004
Home Cafe: Baseball
Location: Swiping second

Postby blankman » Tue Dec 07, 2004 12:42 pm

ukrneal wrote:If you are looking for a 5-tool player, Beltan is the closest to a complete package. He needs to raise his avereage a bit next year, but he clearly has done so in the past. Just look at his playoff numbers. Vlad could be a 5-tool player if his back weren't an issue.


Again, the 5-tool label has nothing to do with fantasy. If you want to say he's great in R HR RBI SB AVG then it would be 5-category. The two are very different.
blankman
Hall of Fame Hero
Hall of Fame Hero

Graphics Expert
Posts: 10770
Joined: 6 Jul 2003
Home Cafe: Baseball

Postby blankman » Tue Dec 07, 2004 12:48 pm

I couldn't imagine not taking Pujols #1 overall. Alex would actually be my next pick. IMO, we all overvalue the SB of Beltran when we can get them later in the draft. Placing Beltran #1, is sacrifcing AVG, HR, and RBI at the very least for an extra maybe 40 SB. Beltran is arguably inferior to Pujols in every category but SB. I know I'd prefer the best numbers and to focus on SB last year.

This same thing happened with Soriano last year. Everyone, including myself had him at #3, when all his numbers except SB were inferior to players below him. We don't know exactly what Beltran will bring, so with the #1 you have to take the no-doubt best numbers.

I'd also take Alex ahead of Beltran. Why? Adjustment period and the potential for slacking off after the contract. Alex should put up another 20+ steal season, but his AVG cannot compare to Pujols.
blankman
Hall of Fame Hero
Hall of Fame Hero

Graphics Expert
Posts: 10770
Joined: 6 Jul 2003
Home Cafe: Baseball

Postby Erboes » Tue Dec 07, 2004 12:52 pm

SaintsOfTheDiamond wrote:
J35J wrote:In regards to Beltran and his SB going down. I don't know that I would agree, when he was in KC (I live in KC), he was pretty adamit? about keeping his SB up. He seemed to like his SB numbers over any numbers he had, so unless a manager "makes" him not steal as much he will continue to keep his SB numbers at at least 35-40 IMO. But with that being said I will go with what "I" think is the safer bet and take Pujols!

Jason


How much of that could be trying to pad the huge payday that's coming to him this offseason? I'm not saying that was his only motive, but being able to sell youself as a 40-40 guy will do wonders for your bank account. That being said, I don't really see his SB's taking a huge hit unless he goes to somewhere like OAK or a place where SB's don't really figure into the philosophy. I think 35-30ish (HR-SB) is a safe prediction. ;-D


And 30 is where I have him too. I never said that he wouldn't steal, but just not as much. If you break down Beltran the hitter and Beltran the base stealer, it makes my reasoning clearer. Beltran the hitter is showing very little signs of becoming a top notch hitter. He may hit 40 HR's, but his average will be down to about .270. If he hits .300, he may hit you 30 HR's. If you look at the plateau of .900 OPS he seems to have reached, you are pretty much looking at Trot Nixon as a hitter. Can he improve as a hitter? Sure, but there have been no signs that he will.

What gives him real value is his SB's. Are there any signs that he will improve in this? No, especially since he has never seen a red light yet in his career. Is there potential that his SB's will drop? Yes, if you consider age, motivation, and the unknown of which team he will end up with. My point is, expecting him to improve his SB totals is pretty baseless and -- at least in my mind -- slippage should be expected.

My last point is that even with Beltran's near 40/40 season, Pujols was still more valuable last season. The question then becomes, who is the most likely to improve in the future. I say Pujols. Then you must ask, who is more likely to slip? Beltran because of the steals is my answer. There is a chance, however, that Beltran does improve as a hitter to offset any slippage in steals if it does occur, but I just don't see any evidence of it. I must say this, I could be wrong, but this is just the way I look at it.
Erboes
Major League Manager
Major League Manager

User avatar

Posts: 1433
Joined: 26 Mar 2003
Home Cafe: Baseball

Postby Secret Avatar » Tue Dec 07, 2004 1:26 pm

Agreed 100 percent. I may be in the minority, but I'm skeptical of all the Beltran hype. His hitting numbers are just not in the elite category no matter how you look at them. His lifetime BA is nothing to write home about. The only year he's shown real power is last year when his BA dropped down to the lowest level in years (267). To me, this shows an obvious trade-off between power and BA. Elite hitters have both. Beltran will be 28 when the season starts next year and has been playing seven years. How much room for improvement can he possibly have?

Beltran's saving grace is his stolen bases. Admittedly, there are few players out there who are legitimate 40-40 threats. Beltran is one, even if at the cost of a low BA. The problem with steals is that I don't see Beltran sustaining them for much longer. Steals are the first thing to go as players get older, and especially when he's got a monster contract. I predict his steals taper off over the next 3 to 5 years, which would drastically reduce his value as a fantasy player. I don't see him as much more than 30-30-290 in the coming years.

For me, Pujols is a no-brainer for 1st overall pick. He's got monster numbers in 4 out of 5 categories and has been very consistent. I would take Vlad and A-Rod over Beltran as well.
Secret Avatar
General Manager
General Manager

Cafeholic
Posts: 3235
Joined: 15 Nov 2004
Home Cafe: Baseball

Postby raiders_umpire » Tue Dec 07, 2004 2:38 pm

SaintsOfTheDiamond wrote:
Nerfherders wrote:An alternative:

If you want Cabrera, trade the pick to someone in the 8th-ish range. if the draft snakes youre better off there anyways.


Depending on the number of teams I think you could wait til the last pick of the first round to snag Cabrera, then you'd be in the best position for a snaking draft. :-)



actually i think nerfherders had it right...if u want cabrera in a dynasty league i imagine he will go around pick 8 or so, so move back there and grab him if that is what u feel comfortable doing....i would still take pujols at #1 though.......
Image
raiders_umpire
Moderator
Moderator

User avatar
ModeratorCafeholicFantasy ExpertCafe WriterCafe RankerMock(ing) DrafterEagle EyeInnovative MemberCafe MusketeerPick 3 Weekly WinnerMatchup Meltdown SurvivorLucky Ladders Weekly Winner
Posts: 27781
Joined: 14 Dec 2003
Home Cafe: Baseball
Location: You will be missed, Robert Smeraldo.

Postby LBJackal » Tue Dec 07, 2004 6:23 pm

Secret Avatar wrote:The problem with steals is that I don't see Beltran sustaining them for much longer. Steals are the first thing to go as players get older, and especially when he's got a monster contract.


Yeah, steals are the first thing to go... but if he gets the green light more often in NY, or wherever he lands, then I can definately see him getting up around 45-50 SB's. He finished the year 37-37 in SB attempts, so it's not like age is a real factor yet. The minimal change in his actual speed will be more than offset by the extra green lights he'll see. And IMO he'll be in Pujols territory for R/RBI, and about 15 HR shy of Pujols.

Being a keeper league though, you'd really have to start thinking about age being a factor with Beltran's SB's. As he gets to his early 30's they will probably be on a steady decline. I'd say he has a couple more years of this SB ability, he doesn't seem to be slowing down at all.

As for the idea of not grabbing him because SB's can be had late in the draft - that's not really true, and in cases where it is, you'll be taking a huge hit at BA, RBI, HR, and in some cases, like Pods, even a hit in R. Gone are the days when guys like Pierre, who only hurt you in 2 cats, go unnoticed.
Image

"Jack, will you call me, if you're able?"

"I've got your phone number written, in the back of my Bible."
LBJackal
Hall of Fame Hero
Hall of Fame Hero

User avatar
Pick 3 Weekly Winner
Posts: 9196
Joined: 1 Jul 2003
Home Cafe: Baseball
Location: The Hotel Yorba

Postby SaintsOfTheDiamond » Tue Dec 07, 2004 6:25 pm

raiders_umpire wrote:
SaintsOfTheDiamond wrote:
Nerfherders wrote:An alternative:

If you want Cabrera, trade the pick to someone in the 8th-ish range. if the draft snakes youre better off there anyways.


Depending on the number of teams I think you could wait til the last pick of the first round to snag Cabrera, then you'd be in the best position for a snaking draft. :-)



actually i think nerfherders had it right...if u want cabrera in a dynasty league i imagine he will go around pick 8 or so, so move back there and grab him if that is what u feel comfortable doing....i would still take pujols at #1 though.......


You think he'll go that early? I was thinking he would surely last until 10-12 depending on the size of the league. I couldn't see him lasting into the teens, but surely he'd be there at 10-12? :-? Maybe not.
Image
Member #4 of the Inaugural Yadier Molina Fan Club!!!
SaintsOfTheDiamond
Hall of Fame Hero
Hall of Fame Hero

Fantasy ExpertCafe WriterCafe Ranker
Posts: 6480
Joined: 6 May 2004
Home Cafe: Baseball
Location: Swiping second

Postby J35J » Tue Dec 07, 2004 6:28 pm

I'm not backing Beltran to be picked #1 because I don't know that I would pick him top 3 but he doesn't necessarily get all his SB with his speed, yes he is fast but he "knows" how to steal bases. So with that in mind his age might hurt his "speed" but it might not hurt his SB numbers like it would others who start to lose "speed" because he knows how to steal bases so well.

Jason
J35J
Hall of Fame Hero
Hall of Fame Hero

User avatar
CafeholicFantasy ExpertCafe WriterCafe RankerMock(ing) DrafterPick 3 Weekly Winner
Posts: 10467
(Past Year: 363)
Joined: 26 Jan 2004
Home Cafe: Baseball

Postby acsguitar » Tue Dec 07, 2004 6:41 pm

I'm going Randy 1st pick...Just because if he gets on a decent team he's the best pitcher in baseball hands down...If he gets on the Yankees, Cardinals, Sox, or Even the Dodgers then hell have 20-25 wins easy...As for Beltran I think his incredible offseason boosted his rankings....I traded Beltran for Johnson because of my opinion that finding a dominant pitcher is harder and more important then a CF...its a risk but Im taking it damnit!
acsguitar
Hall of Fame Hero
Hall of Fame Hero

User avatar
Graphics Expert
Posts: 26722
Joined: 7 Apr 2004
Home Cafe: Baseball
Location: Back in General Talk WOOO!!!

PreviousNext

Return to Baseball Leftovers

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 8 guests

Forums Articles & Tips Sleepers Rankings Leagues


  • Fantasy Baseball
  • Article Submissions
  • Privacy Statement
  • Site Survey 
  • Contact