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#1 overall pick in a 5x5 dynasty league

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Postby Arlo » Tue Dec 07, 2004 8:44 am

Since I have both these guys locked up for next year for a total of $22, you can imagine how much I'm enjoying this discussion... ;-)

Seriously, though, Pujols and Beltran are awfully close, and you can't go wrong with either. And as wrveres said, A-Rod should be in the mix as well. If I had to choose one, it would most likely be Pujols, simply because with such a large chunk of Beltran's value tied to his steals, Pujols seems like the slightly safer bet looking several years into the future.
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Postby raiders_umpire » Tue Dec 07, 2004 9:59 am

i would be extremely happy with either one in a dynasty league...but if i had first pick i would take pujols for 2 reason mainly.....his high batting average and his age (3 years younger than beltran)....his BA will carry your team so you could get a dunn for more power or even a podsednik for the stolen bases......but like i said i would just as soon pick 2nd and get which one was left, but my choice would be pujols in a 5x5
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Postby Erboes » Tue Dec 07, 2004 10:59 am

If I may...

...for what is worth, this is how I look at the two players:

Beltran. I believe the assumption that Beltran will only get better is not born out with the stats. If you believe OPS is the best indicator of a player's ability to hit like I do, Beltran has not really shown much improvement in that regard. Consider:

'04 -- .915
'03 -- .911
'02 -- .847
'01 -- .876

This is not to say that he won't improve on these numbers, but there is nothing that shows an improvement, or at least much of one, is imminent. Furthermore, even if he does sign with the Yankees it means nothing. Beltran, when he is hitting lefthanded, is not a dead-pull hitter, and Yankee stadium only favors those lefties who pull it down the line. At best, any anticipated benefit will be negligable and, at worst, it could actually hurt him if he changes his approach (ala Giambi). Again, this is not to say that Beltran will not improve but there is nothing there that indicates that any improvement is imminent.

But then there are the SB's. I really don't know how Jackal comes up with these 50 SB's. There are two things that come into play with SB's, opportunity and desire. In both accounts, don't you think that they would be lessened after he signs a big contract? Even if they weren't, how could you assume that they would be greater for him to steal 50? This makes no sense to me, but then again, it could just be me.

Pujols -- May I point out two things about Pujols' season last year -- 1) He played hurt through most of it. And 2) He changed his approach from the season before. Witht the first point, how it affected him is unknown. It may not have much at all, but I think it is safe to say it probably hurt him at least a little.

The second point is what I want to focus on. If you'll recall, at the beginning of the season Pujols got a lot of ink for wanting to lower his K's and raise his BB's in order to have more of the latter than the former, which he did in spades. That's a heck of feat by the way. Not too many power hitters in the history of baseball have ever achieved that. Anyway, while doing that in the first half he really lost his aggressiveness, resulting in a poor (for him) OPS of .998. Look at the second half, though. He started striking out a little bit more and his walks dropped, but there were still more BB's than K's, but he regained his aggressiveness and he had an incredible 1.154 OPS over that time. In other words, he reached that balance between selectivity and aggression.

It is my opinion that, with good health, Pujols is on the verge of a season that may be historic. I am talking triple crown historic. I am talking about possibly making a run at .400 historic. I am talking about you kicking yourself in the ass all season if you take Beltran ahead of Pujols historic.

It is my humble opinion that you cannot expect more from Beltran than what he gave you last season and is more than likely to be less. With Pujols, however, you should expect and probably will get more than last season.
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Postby Mookie4ever » Tue Dec 07, 2004 11:03 am

kentx12 wrote:Told you no one else would agree with me.


I agree - Pujols.
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Postby Arlo » Tue Dec 07, 2004 11:40 am

Erboes wrote:The second point is what I want to focus on. If you'll recall, at the beginning of the season Pujols got a lot of ink for wanting to lower his K's and raise his BB's in order to have more of the latter than the former...

Pujols has had more of the latter than the former every year except his rookie season.
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Postby Erboes » Tue Dec 07, 2004 11:45 am

Arlo wrote:
Erboes wrote:The second point is what I want to focus on. If you'll recall, at the beginning of the season Pujols got a lot of ink for wanting to lower his K's and raise his BB's in order to have more of the latter than the former...

Pujols has had more of the latter than the former every year except his rookie season.


Yep, you are right. I think it would be better to say he tried to better his selectivity while slicing his K's. Is that accurate?
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Postby SaintsOfTheDiamond » Tue Dec 07, 2004 12:04 pm

Erboes wrote:
Arlo wrote:
Erboes wrote:The second point is what I want to focus on. If you'll recall, at the beginning of the season Pujols got a lot of ink for wanting to lower his K's and raise his BB's in order to have more of the latter than the former...

Pujols has had more of the latter than the former every year except his rookie season.


Yep, you are right. I think it would be better to say he tried to better his selectivity while slicing his K's. Is that accurate?


Off topic I guess, but I thought I'd throw it in. The thing with Pujols is he can hit just about anything. I've heard it said about him that he swings too much, which I would argue with but it is accurate to some degree. So that being said he's never going to get as many BB's as some other purely power hitters (he's stayed at about 80 or so the last three years which was T-20th in the majors which isn't bad, just not best in the game-esque like his other stats), but it is starting to make a slight upward trend. ;-D Guess you can't really argue with the end results though. :-)
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Postby Nerfherders » Tue Dec 07, 2004 12:10 pm

An alternative:

If you want Cabrera, trade the pick to someone in the 8th-ish range. if the draft snakes youre better off there anyways.
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Postby SaintsOfTheDiamond » Tue Dec 07, 2004 12:12 pm

Nerfherders wrote:An alternative:

If you want Cabrera, trade the pick to someone in the 8th-ish range. if the draft snakes youre better off there anyways.


Depending on the number of teams I think you could wait til the last pick of the first round to snag Cabrera, then you'd be in the best position for a snaking draft. :-)
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Postby J35J » Tue Dec 07, 2004 12:23 pm

In regards to Beltran and his SB going down. I don't know that I would agree, when he was in KC (I live in KC), he was pretty adamit? about keeping his SB up. He seemed to like his SB numbers over any numbers he had, so unless a manager "makes" him not steal as much he will continue to keep his SB numbers at at least 35-40 IMO. But with that being said I will go with what "I" think is the safer bet and take Pujols!

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