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#1 overall pick in a 5x5 dynasty league

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Postby SaintsOfTheDiamond » Tue Dec 07, 2004 12:17 am

kimchi_chigae wrote:
wrveres wrote:I am still taking Arod .... ;-D


finally ;-D

but really, i'd go with beltran, regardless where he ends up ;-)

i have a question though. moose said it was a roto league, if it was a HTH league, would you guys change the pick or it doesn't really matter cuz it's the #1 pick.


I think in the first few rounds you take the best players, then fill in where you need help, but that's just me.
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Postby Tavish » Tue Dec 07, 2004 12:17 am

I would go with Pujols. Then again I think Beltran will end up in a Dodgers uniform for the next 5 seasons so his batting stats would take a hit. Unless he ends up in SF there is no reason to think his SB will decrease.
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Postby pomplona's finest » Tue Dec 07, 2004 12:49 am

I will go on the Beltran side here. ;-D
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Postby Fireball Express » Tue Dec 07, 2004 2:30 am

LBJackal wrote:
moose wrote:Not true. An expert that I know personally told me I'd be a fool to pass up Beltran. [/b]


I don't remember talking to you recently :-? ........... :-b


Um, I thought he said expert? :-D

If Beltran goes 50/50 I'll eat my shorts after running the marathon. Don't get me wrong. I think he's a first rounder and would take him at #2. I can see his steals go down while his power numbers go up. He's 3 years older than Albert. I'm not sure if that matters, but Albert is only 24 while Beltran is at his peak age (so they say) at 27.

I recently drafted Pujols #1 overall in a keeper draft, not a dynasty and not 5x5, but a 6 x 6 keeper. Now there's a guy who will put up crazy numbers in 4 of the 5 catagories for a long time.

Still you really can't go wrong with either.
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Postby GiantFan666 » Tue Dec 07, 2004 3:05 am

I think I would have to take Pujols #1 between him and Beltran.. Pujols is a legitimate triple crown threat Beltran does get SB's but those traditionally go down whenever a player starts to show any kind of power... I think you're better off taking Pujols #1 and filling in SB's later on in the draft... if Miggy is available when the draft gets back to you I would definitely grab him though... I think the glut in 3b this year might work to your advantage
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Postby AKhomebrewer » Tue Dec 07, 2004 3:10 am

I think Miggy lost that 3b eligibility if your league requires 10 or 15 games ... and with Lowell re-signed, he's not likely to get it back. Might slip to the back of the second round.

To your original question, I like Pujols as the safer pick, but Beltran if you want the higher risk/reward.
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Postby GiantFan666 » Tue Dec 07, 2004 3:49 am

AKhomebrewer wrote:I think Miggy lost that 3b eligibility if your league requires 10 or 15 games ... and with Lowell re-signed, he's not likely to get it back. Might slip to the back of the second round.


Yep you're right... but it sounded good in theory !
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Postby LBJackal » Tue Dec 07, 2004 5:23 am

I said he could either go 50/50 someday (not neccesarily next year - but at some point) or he could fall to earth once he signs his contract. I didn't say he'd go 50/50 next year. But you can eat your shorts if you want if he does it :-b

And GiantsFan - there are so few examples of power hitters getting this many SB's that I don't know how you can come to a conclusion that Beltran's will fall? He's arguably the best base stealer of all time, and he's only gotten better over the years. Since 1950, nobody with at least 50 career SB's has a better SB%. The only comparable player in terms of being a power hitter with that kind of SB threat I can think of is Eric Davis but his career was cut short so you can't really get any precedent from that.

According to aging patterns, his SB's will fall by about 5.7% next year. However, according to those same aging patterns, his SB's should have fallen in 2002 and 2003, but they rose during those years. Since he finished the season 37 for 37 in SB attempts this year, I'd assume that the pattern saying your SB's decline after age 24 doesn't apply to Beltran. It also doesn't take into account changing teams, and I think if the Yanks got him he'd steal more often. Just my opinion though, and there are lots of people taht think his SB's will go down so who knows...
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Postby no1marlinsfan02 » Tue Dec 07, 2004 8:32 am

Donrelle Willis!!! :-B
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Postby ukrneal » Tue Dec 07, 2004 8:44 am

There IS actually a third alternative, one that blends the two together. Mr. Vlad!

He'll put up numbers with the best of them AND he'll get steals. Probably not as many as Beltran, but more than Pujols. Although, Pujols did get 5 SB last year.

If you are looking for a 5-tool player, Beltan is the closest to a complete package. He needs to raise his avereage a bit next year, but he clearly has done so in the past. Just look at his playoff numbers. Vlad could be a 5-tool player if his back weren't an issue.

They are all three studly and you really can't go wrong. So pick the one you like more and don't look back.
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