I said he could either go 50/50 someday (not neccesarily next year - but at some point) or he could fall to earth once he signs his contract. I didn't say he'd go 50/50 next year. But you can eat your shorts if you want if he does it
And GiantsFan - there are so few examples of power hitters getting this many SB's that I don't know how you can come to a conclusion that Beltran's will fall? He's arguably the best base stealer of all time, and he's only gotten better over the years. Since 1950, nobody with at least 50 career SB's has a better SB%. The only comparable player in terms of being a power hitter with that kind of SB threat I can think of is Eric Davis but his career was cut short so you can't really get any precedent from that.
According to aging patterns, his SB's will fall by about 5.7% next year. However, according to those same aging patterns, his SB's should have fallen in 2002 and 2003, but they rose during those years. Since he finished the season 37 for 37 in SB attempts this year, I'd assume that the pattern saying your SB's decline after age 24 doesn't apply to Beltran. It also doesn't take into account changing teams, and I think if the Yanks got him he'd steal more often. Just my opinion though, and there are lots of people taht think his SB's will go down so who knows...
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