Cornbread Maxwell wrote:I understand what you are saying, but the opposite is true too - bargains can be had in both hitters and pitchers.
Sure bargains can be had in any draft and at any round. My point was that there is more risk in the average pitchers than the average hitters. I wouldnt go out and spend all my money on pitching but I put muhc more value on guys like Schilling, Johnson, Pedro. I will over spend to get those guys than Arod, Pujols.etc..
When looking at values here is how I see it.
FIGURES ARE PURE EXAMPLE:
Schilling $40 Actual Value $25 Drafted Value
Johnson $35 Actual Value $23 Drafted Value
A Rod $35 Actual Value $45 Drafted Value
Vlad G. $36 Actual Value $43 Drafted Value
J Edmonds $20 Actual Value $10 Drafted Value
J Burnitzs $16 Actual Value $9 Drafted Value
CC Sabathia $10 Actual Value $9 Drafted Value
When I go back after each season and plug in the actual stats back into the projections tables that i used inthe beginning I always see the same results. If I would have spend a little more on the top pitchers I wouldhave done even better because it is much easier to get above average hitting late in the draft and also through free agency.
Answer this? Would you spend more money on a rookie hitter or rookie pitcher? Most people would say hitter because there is less risk. This is no different than looking at the risk of the average hitter vs pitcher.
Cornbread Maxwell wrote:Take a look at the top 25 Ps from last yr - about half of them could have been drafted after the 7-8th rd in most leagues - as for auction style, I think that probably translates into the $5-$15 range for the majority of them. The same can be said about the hitters from last yr.
I think we are looking through different glasses on this. If everyone in the league thinks like you and I am the only one who is the opposite, who will benefit the most? While you and the rest are bidding the same guys up and letting the same guys go down there comes a time where you dont have enough money to keep overpaying. Thats were this thinking is powerful