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I WILL POST SOME GOOD VALUE BASED RANKINGS

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I WILL POST SOME GOOD VALUE BASED RANKINGS

Postby SHOCKandAWE » Mon Dec 06, 2004 1:56 pm

Currently I am working on my own rankings using the value ranking method. I have about 120 hitters complete so far and look to to have the whole league done by next week. I am putting about 200 hours into this whole listing so i would love to have some open discussion once I put up the initial rankings.

It will be for a 5x5 mixed league with 260 salary cap. 17 hittes 10 pitchers.
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Postby LBJackal » Mon Dec 06, 2004 2:10 pm

Sounds good ;-D

And if you have a ranking formula I'd like to see it. I can do all the projections myself but ranking is a different thing entirely and I don't have a system setup. VBD and dollar values seem to be the way to go. Anybody have a system that does this?
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Postby SHOCKandAWE » Mon Dec 06, 2004 2:42 pm

My system will do both for you. VBD and salary amount.

It will also allow you decide on what percentage of the money you want to allocate to hitters vs pitchers. This in return will change your salary per player but it is all uniform.
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Postby LBJackal » Mon Dec 06, 2004 2:44 pm

Are you sharing the formula, or just the dollar values? Either would be helpful, but I have the projections I'd like to use for my rankings.
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Postby SHOCKandAWE » Mon Dec 06, 2004 2:45 pm

Also I might add that the tricky part is allocating money to positions.

What I have found is that teams that allocated the traditional 70/30 allocation hitters to pitchers dont do as well as say the 60/40.

Why only allocate 30% of your money when there are 5 pitching categories as well
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Postby SHOCKandAWE » Mon Dec 06, 2004 2:55 pm

LBJackal wrote:Are you sharing the formula, or just the dollar values? Either would be helpful, but I have the projections I'd like to use for my rankings.


:-? For now I will just post the rankings and dollar values when I finish.
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Postby Cornbread Maxwell » Mon Dec 06, 2004 4:59 pm

SHOCKandAWE wrote:Also I might add that the tricky part is allocating money to positions.

What I have found is that teams that allocated the traditional 70/30 allocation hitters to pitchers dont do as well as say the 60/40.

Why only allocate 30% of your money when there are 5 pitching categories as well


One reason might be the unpredictablity of the P position. Maybe someone can corroborate this, but arent pitchers much more volatile from yr to yr, while hitters fluxuate less? Just a thought.
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Postby SHOCKandAWE » Mon Dec 06, 2004 5:10 pm

Cornbread Maxwell wrote:
SHOCKandAWE wrote:Also I might add that the tricky part is allocating money to positions.

What I have found is that teams that allocated the traditional 70/30 allocation hitters to pitchers dont do as well as say the 60/40.

Why only allocate 30% of your money when there are 5 pitching categories as well


One reason might be the unpredictablity of the P position. Maybe someone can corroborate this, but arent pitchers much more volatile from yr to yr, while hitters fluxuate less? Just a thought.


Are they? I would have to agree and disagree with you.

I would argue the fact that the average pitchers is much more volatile from year to year than the average hitter. However when you compare the top pitchers vs the top hitters you will see less unpredctability. I would rather pay more for schilling than a beltran knowing that as the other fill out their rosters I will can fill my team with less risk OF and they are going to have more risk with the average pitchers. I know many guys that have won league after league with this thinking and since everyone is not thinking this way you can get a real steal on the top pitchers and as teams scramble for the upper middle pitchers they will pay higher than their actual value while you get bargains later at the hitters positions. Keep in mind that this is for auction leagues. I only participate in auctions styles because of the strategy involved
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Postby Cornbread Maxwell » Mon Dec 06, 2004 5:43 pm

I understand what you are saying, but the opposite is true too - bargains can be had in both hitters and pitchers. Take a look at the top 25 Ps from last yr - about half of them could have been drafted after the 7-8th rd in most leagues - as for auction style, I think that probably translates into the $5-$15 range for the majority of them. The same can be said about the hitters from last yr.
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Postby SHOCKandAWE » Mon Dec 06, 2004 6:16 pm

Cornbread Maxwell wrote:I understand what you are saying, but the opposite is true too - bargains can be had in both hitters and pitchers.


Sure bargains can be had in any draft and at any round. My point was that there is more risk in the average pitchers than the average hitters. I wouldnt go out and spend all my money on pitching but I put muhc more value on guys like Schilling, Johnson, Pedro. I will over spend to get those guys than Arod, Pujols.etc..

When looking at values here is how I see it.

TOP PLAYERS
FIGURES ARE PURE EXAMPLE:
Schilling $40 Actual Value $25 Drafted Value
Johnson $35 Actual Value $23 Drafted Value

A Rod $35 Actual Value $45 Drafted Value
Vlad G. $36 Actual Value $43 Drafted Value

AVERAGE PLAYERS
J Edmonds $20 Actual Value $10 Drafted Value
J Burnitzs $16 Actual Value $9 Drafted Value

CC Sabathia $10 Actual Value $9 Drafted Value

When I go back after each season and plug in the actual stats back into the projections tables that i used inthe beginning I always see the same results. If I would have spend a little more on the top pitchers I wouldhave done even better because it is much easier to get above average hitting late in the draft and also through free agency.

Answer this? Would you spend more money on a rookie hitter or rookie pitcher? Most people would say hitter because there is less risk. This is no different than looking at the risk of the average hitter vs pitcher.


Cornbread Maxwell wrote:Take a look at the top 25 Ps from last yr - about half of them could have been drafted after the 7-8th rd in most leagues - as for auction style, I think that probably translates into the $5-$15 range for the majority of them. The same can be said about the hitters from last yr.
I think we are looking through different glasses on this. If everyone in the league thinks like you and I am the only one who is the opposite, who will benefit the most? While you and the rest are bidding the same guys up and letting the same guys go down there comes a time where you dont have enough money to keep overpaying. Thats were this thinking is powerful
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