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General draft strategy question, please help

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Postby LBJackal » Mon Dec 06, 2004 10:29 pm

Aw, now you're just LOOKIN for ways to diss Dunn :-D

I'm not an Ichiro fan and he'll get drafted way too early, but Dunn improved big time last year. He still K's a lot but his BA was much improved, and he hit 46 HR's. Also had a .956 OPS, not too shabby. Also, he missed 50 games in 2003 so his 3 year average will be skewed.

I don't really like 3 year averages, they're only good for players who are in the middle of their career and have a steady pattern of change in their stats. Young players and old players, as well as players who have breakout seasons, have much different improvement patterns so 3 year averages can be very inaccurate and may even be manipulated to prove the point of biased Californians. Not naming names.... :-D
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Postby wrveres » Mon Dec 06, 2004 10:37 pm

LBJackal wrote:Aw, now you're just LOOKIN for ways to diss Dunn :-D


who me ?... :-D

I am innocent :-°
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Postby LBJackal » Mon Dec 06, 2004 11:56 pm

wrveres wrote:
LBJackal wrote:Aw, now you're just LOOKIN for ways to diss Dunn :-D


who me ?... :-D

I am innocent :-°


I have a report from the SF Chronicle saying that you are in fact biased.

But innocent until proven guilty.... :-D
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Postby wrveres » Tue Dec 07, 2004 12:03 am

LBJackal wrote:
wrveres wrote:
LBJackal wrote:Aw, now you're just LOOKIN for ways to diss Dunn :-D


who me ?... :-D

I am innocent :-°


I have a report from the SF Chronicle saying that you are in fact biased.

But innocent until proven guilty.... :-D


LMAO .. ;-D
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Postby kimchi_chigae » Tue Dec 07, 2004 1:20 am

i tend to go more to a potential 40HR guy and then for a guy who is likely to contribute with a big SB number, like pods, than to drafting playing who will be average in all cats. pods' avg was low this season, i think people will kinda let him slip in the draft, but he stole 70 bases! 8-o i'd do that especially if it's a HTH league, so i can start either guy depending on what i need.

did anyone see that 28SB by a-rod coming this season? he only stole 9 two years ago...
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Postby LBJackal » Tue Dec 07, 2004 1:59 am

Pods stinks in real life, so playing time could be an issue, but Milwaukee stinks so bad they might keep him in there. That's a good thing about him being on a bad team. The bad thing? Even with 70 SB's he only scored 85 runs, and he'll be amongst the worst drafted players in the league for RBI despite his 12 HR.

As for A-Rod - I can see him getting 15 SB's possibly, but getting 28 again seems very unlikely.
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Postby great gretzky » Tue Dec 07, 2004 11:27 am

I think my problem with the "40 homer guy" is that everyone seems to get a hard on about them, and their price skyrockets.

This is obviosuly a gross overgeneralization, but it seems to me strategy wise (independent of specific players) people tend to forget that the "40 homer guy" will get you power, rbi and some runs.

the stolen base guy will generally get runs, stolen bases and average.

obvisouly, there are enough exceptions to make it moot -- EXCEPT it is really the same three categories. and draft time, a lot of people tend to think of power as the basis for their team and "fill needs" by plucking a stolen base guy.

I generally seem to do well in the power cats to get enough 30 -35 home run guys who get the bases -- because the value (aside from beltran) of them tends to be a bit lower than getting the thome's and delgados of the world.

thanks for the list, I comepletely forgot about vernon wells, he will be undervalued for sure.

the one thing that I found this season -- and it is the reason I fell short is that of any of the categories to tank, it seemed like average would be the one. I liked not having to worry about it, because with a suprlus of games at the end of the year, I could cycle guys in at will to accumulate "counting stats". Although, This season I would like to not focus on it per se, but get to 5 points or so in an 11 team league. which is why I was hoping for a dunn, ichiro combo -- but the price paid might be too steep.
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Postby Erboes » Tue Dec 07, 2004 11:43 am

I think the guy you want who tails only Abreu on your list is Crawford. You can expect one of these years for him to top 20 HR's, and that could possibly be this season. Add on to it a .300 average and 50+ steals, he may actually turn out to be a top 5 hitter in all of baseball if not higher.
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Postby great gretzky » Tue Dec 07, 2004 3:23 pm

wow, good one. completely forgot about that one.

sop I guess the top tier guys I am really looking at for this strategy are:

crawford, ichrio, beltran,. abreu, patterson

then try and flush it out with some guys like aaron roawand, baldelli, drew, cameron.

then try and combine some of them with some cheap power

hmm this might have to take a couple of "under the radar" trades quick to get this together.
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Postby pgbridge2000 » Tue Dec 07, 2004 9:58 pm

he isn't now but if anyone recalls he was a 50-50 threat like beltran and did 40-40 if I recall correctly. 30 sb's on a team that gave him plenty of oppurtunity to steal, especially with the void created from the lack of soriano, isn't that suprising
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