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Once a 200 K pitcher always a 200 K pitcher?

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Once a 200 K pitcher always a 200 K pitcher?

Postby Music2004Man » Thu Nov 25, 2004 3:38 pm

I'm wondering what you guys think about Ben Sheets and Oliver Perez for next year. I see both of them in much the same light from last year. They are both realizing their potential and they both had over 200 K's for sub par teams. Atleast for the next couple of years it seems like their teams are going to stay that way so their value remains in their K's (and less so in their wins). My question is do you guys see them being solid pitchers next year? Guys who strike out 200 a year don't usually lose that right? Where do you see these two next year?
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Postby DK » Thu Nov 25, 2004 3:53 pm

I've been high on Ollie Perez ever since he came into the league. Don't ever let him go.

What's more amazing than Sheets' 245 K's is his insane K/BB ratio. I don't see either one regressing back to normality any time soon.
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Re: Once a 200 K pitcher always a 200 K pitcher?

Postby DominicanLou » Thu Nov 25, 2004 4:09 pm

Music2004Man wrote:I'm wondering what you guys think about Ben Sheets and Oliver Perez for next year. I see both of them in much the same light from last year. They are both realizing their potential and they both had over 200 K's for sub par teams. Atleast for the next couple of years it seems like their teams are going to stay that way so their value remains in their K's (and less so in their wins). My question is do you guys see them being solid pitchers next year? Guys who strike out 200 a year don't usually lose that right? Where do you see these two next year?


As for once 200k always 200k, you might want to look up Matt Clement's stats. I fell for it also when I drafted him after his only 200k year.
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Postby LBJackal » Thu Nov 25, 2004 4:20 pm

I wouldn't say once 200 K's, always 200 K's. But with Sheets' 8.25 K/BB ratio you can be sure he'll be one of the best again. If not for his lack of wins I might have him #1 overall. Perez was good but not even close to as good as Sheets. His K's are nice though for sure.... but he's more volatile IMO.
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Re: Once a 200 K pitcher always a 200 K pitcher?

Postby Tavish » Thu Nov 25, 2004 4:21 pm

DominicanLou wrote:As for once 200k always 200k, you might want to look up Matt Clement's stats. I fell for it also when I drafted him after his only 200k year.


Strikeouts are one thing that usually stays consistant with a pitcher. A good strikeout pitcher doesn't lose that ability normally unless an injury changes the type of pitcher he is. A 200 K pitcher might not get 200 K's every season, but they won't just stop striking people out.
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Postby GotowarMissAgnes » Thu Nov 25, 2004 4:42 pm

LBJackal wrote:I wouldn't say once 200 K's, always 200 K's. But with Sheets' 8.25 K/BB ratio you can be sure he'll be one of the best again. If not for his lack of wins I might have him #1 overall. Perez was good but not even close to as good as Sheets. His K's are nice though for sure.... but he's more volatile IMO.


I think once you take age into account, you might pick Perez, at least in a keeper. Perez is just 22, while Sheets is 25. Perez gets more K's per 9 and fewer hits, so WHIP is about equal, despite Sheets awesome control. Neither is going to get many wins unless lucky, but at least Sheets is on a team that has some good young players on the farm. ERA is about equal, too.

So, Perez wins Ks, while Sheets probably has the better future on wins. They are equal on the other two, but Perez is 3 years younger, so has the higher ceiling. Sheets does have the longer MLB track record, but I think Perez is the larger talent.

Glad I picked him off waivers last May.
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Postby LBJackal » Thu Nov 25, 2004 4:52 pm

I say Sheets because I think his ERA will remain very low. K's would go to Ollie, but I don't think he can control his WHIP and ERA like Sheets can. With a K/BB like that you have to assume he'd be the most reliable year-to-year. Perez doesn't make me feel safe like Sheets does. It wouldn't surprise me to see Ollie have an ERA in the high 3's. If Sheets' ERA rose to the mid-3's I'd be surprised.
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Postby GotowarMissAgnes » Thu Nov 25, 2004 6:26 pm

LBJackal wrote:I say Sheets because I think his ERA will remain very low. K's would go to Ollie, but I don't think he can control his WHIP and ERA like Sheets can. With a K/BB like that you have to assume he'd be the most reliable year-to-year. Perez doesn't make me feel safe like Sheets does. It wouldn't surprise me to see Ollie have an ERA in the high 3's. If Sheets' ERA rose to the mid-3's I'd be surprised.


Why? Three of his first four years Sheets was over 4.00? Last year he had twice as many runs ruled to be unearned as the average pitcher. I think it's pretty much a tossup.
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Postby Mookie4ever » Thu Nov 25, 2004 8:35 pm

Once a 200K pitcher always a 200K pitcher?

Ask Zito and Loaiza.

There is some risk with Ollie. He had no control and couldn't hit the broad side of a barn last year. He had a 5.49 ERA and a 1.632 WHIP in 2003. He could lose it again because he was never known for his control.

That being said, I'm a big Ollie fan and think that he will be a good one to keep.
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Postby Tony Clark is my son » Thu Nov 25, 2004 8:51 pm

I get the inkling that Sheets and Oliver Perez will be two very talented pitchers in the not-too-distant future. I don't think 2004 was an Esteban Loaiza-year for them because they're both young and flew under the radar, so there's not as much pressure for them to produce next year as there was for Loaiza in 2004.

To me, there are 2 kinds of 200 K pitchers. The first kind is your prototypical flamethrower. They kind that has a wicked fastball and a nast breaking ball for complement. The other is more your your finesse strikeout guy. The guy who's pitches aren't as complementary to each other, but has enough ability and control to get a reasonably high amount of strikeouts. Sheets and Perez the fit first catagory. Mussina fits the latter. The first catagory is more likely to strikeout 200 consistantly, while the Mussina-types can't be relied on for Ks, but can for other importants catagories, sometimes moreso than the first group.
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