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Postby LBJackal » Wed Dec 01, 2004 7:54 pm

And stealing bases wouldn't be Beltran's job? I think it would be, and I imagine he'd bat 2nd (should probably be leadoff.... but then again A-Rod should be playing SS). It's a difference of opinion, but I think he'll get a ton of SB's.

The difference between Beltran and Vlad/Maggs - 2 other power hitting guys whose SB's went way down - is that Beltran is a very successful basestealer. Vlad was never good at it, he just attempted a lot. Maggs was successful 77% of the time for that 3 year span he actually stole bases (73 attempted), which is good but the next 3 years he only attempted 28 total, and was only successful 57% of the time. That's more of getting worse at stealing bases (either because of injury or age, I don't know but he got a lot worse) leading to not doing it, rather than choosing not to steal. I don't think either of those applies to Beltran; he's a much better basestealer than both of them, he isn't injured at all, and hes only gotten better over the past couple years. He's had 4 seasons that he attempted 35 SB's; 1999, 2002, 2003, and 2004. He's been more successful as he's gotten older in each of thsoe seasons. From 77%, to 83%, to 91%, to 93% respectively. I don't see him stealing at a 65% which is what Vlad has in his career, and along with his back injury is probably why he isn't stealing anymore. And I don't see him falling to 57% like Maggs has over the past 2 seasons, because he's on an upward trend, and getting better at stealing bases, not worse.

But we'll see. Maybe he's too risky to take #1 overall but with 30+ HR power and 50 SB capability, and all the runs and RBI that come with being at the top of the Yankees lineup - I can't justify taking anybody else. Maybe I should take Pujols for his consistency, but hell I probably won't have any #1 picks next year anyway :-D
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Postby io » Thu Dec 02, 2004 1:28 am

a couple things..

1. want to add these names that could break out in 05:

david wright
laynce nix
alexis rios

2. i think a 5 cat player like Beltran is way more valuable in H2H then Roto. even with a low average, i would take him over Pujols in an H2H league.. but maybe 3rd or 4th in roto
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Postby LBJackal » Thu Dec 02, 2004 2:09 am

Laynce Nix is one guy I'd like to see succeed. Not much is said about him but he seems to some potential and might even steal a dozen bases. Is he going to start in CF? Is Nivar going to get a shot? I guess it all comes down to palying time.
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Postby great gretzky » Thu Dec 02, 2004 5:52 pm

frankly this list is interesting.

I am definitely going to try and have my otufielders be all of the 30-30,20-20 type. It just gives you so much flexibility in the long run. had abreu and beltran this year, and it was very very sweet. you could fill in around the edges where necessary. thinking of trying toget one of them, then maybe cory patterson, and one other guy to target ...
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Postby igreen01 » Thu Dec 02, 2004 8:03 pm

I like Coco too. Whereas Nix seems to have an issue with plate discipline. My deep value OF pup picks are:

Curtis Granderson in Detroit
DeJesus in KC
The possible Jeff Davanon/Juan Rivera platoon
A's Swisher in OBP leagues.
Hawpe/Piedra at Coors, if they get a chance
Byrd if he lands somewhere mellow
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Postby Secret Avatar » Thu Dec 02, 2004 8:05 pm

Beltran's BA was lower than usual last year (267) but his HRs were considerably higher than usual. Coincidence? I don't think so.

BTW, what about Crawford as a 5-category player? He's got monster speed and has shown he can hit for average. He just hasn't hit for power. He's a big enough guy (6-2) and only 23, though, so he could mature into some decent power. His BA and HRs have creeped up over the last few years. I could see him hitting 20 to 30 HRs in a few years.
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Postby igreen01 » Thu Dec 02, 2004 8:08 pm

crawford's power is definitely developing. Check the slugging increases last two years. I can see 20 + dingers in '05.
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Postby baseballboy » Thu Dec 02, 2004 9:40 pm

stumpak wrote:I would stay far far away from Podesnik. I would be baffled if he still has his job by the end of the season; even the Brewers will figure out sooner of later that it is nice to have a lead-off hitter who can get on base more than 30% of the time.


I made the mistake of staying far away from Pods last year and he stole 70 bags. I hope I can get him for $15 or less in our auction league - if so, he'll be mine for sure :-D
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Postby SaintsOfTheDiamond » Thu Dec 02, 2004 9:47 pm

baseballboy wrote:
stumpak wrote:I would stay far far away from Podesnik. I would be baffled if he still has his job by the end of the season; even the Brewers will figure out sooner of later that it is nice to have a lead-off hitter who can get on base more than 30% of the time.


I made the mistake of staying far away from Pods last year and he stole 70 bags. I hope I can get him for $15 or less in our auction league - if so, he'll be mine for sure :-D


But he kills you so much in the other cats that the SB's -- which can change so much year to year anyway -- probably don't make up for it in a standard 5x5 league. :-?
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Postby baseballboy » Thu Dec 02, 2004 10:12 pm

SaintsOfTheDiamond wrote:
baseballboy wrote:
stumpak wrote:I would stay far far away from Podesnik. I would be baffled if he still has his job by the end of the season; even the Brewers will figure out sooner of later that it is nice to have a lead-off hitter who can get on base more than 30% of the time.


I made the mistake of staying far away from Pods last year and he stole 70 bags. I hope I can get him for $15 or less in our auction league - if so, he'll be mine for sure :-D


But he kills you so much in the other cats that the SB's -- which can change so much year to year anyway -- probably don't make up for it in a standard 5x5 league. :-?


His .244 average was an absolute killer for a fantasy squad but he chipped in 12 homers and scored 85 runs to go with those 70 bags - a bid in the low teens is worthy if you can stand the hit in BA.
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