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Postby mocabeenow » Tue Nov 30, 2004 12:36 pm

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Postby kentx12 » Tue Nov 30, 2004 12:47 pm

SaintsOfTheDiamond wrote:I think those are a little ambitious, but that's just me. :-? I think he will perform about where he did this year, maybe a little better, but not new career highs pretty much across the board.



I think they are a little high in rbi, and runs but not in hr and steals. I also expect the Avg. to get back up to around .290
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Postby SaintsOfTheDiamond » Tue Nov 30, 2004 12:49 pm

kentx12 wrote:
SaintsOfTheDiamond wrote:I think those are a little ambitious, but that's just me. :-? I think he will perform about where he did this year, maybe a little better, but not new career highs pretty much across the board.



I think they are a little high in rbi, and runs but not in hr and steals. I also expect the Avg. to get back up to around .290


I guess I was assuming he's going to the Bronx, so I don't see him hitting that many homers, even with the short porch in right. (Since he'll be batting left handed most of the time I imagine. :-?) I also don't see him swiping almost 50 bags in NY either, regardless of A-Rod's numbers last year.
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Postby Apex » Tue Nov 30, 2004 2:37 pm

SaintsOfTheDiamond wrote:I guess I was assuming he's going to the Bronx, so I don't see him hitting that many homers, even with the short porch in right. (Since he'll be batting left handed most of the time I imagine. :-?) I also don't see him swiping almost 50 bags in NY either, regardless of A-Rod's numbers last year.

Now you have me confused. Left-handed pull hitters will hit the ball to right field. Are you saying he's not a pull hitter, or should this actually help him rather than hurt him?
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Postby stumpak » Tue Nov 30, 2004 3:18 pm

I would stay far far away from Podesnik. I would be baffled if he still has his job by the end of the season; even the Brewers will figure out sooner of later that it is nice to have a lead-off hitter who can get on base more than 30% of the time.
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Postby dicehound » Tue Nov 30, 2004 3:38 pm

One guy not mentioned so far here is Carl Crawford. I think he is going to end up hitting a lot of homeruns once he grows into his frame (he's still only 23!), and will end up matching if not eclipsing Beltran's greatness in the near future.
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Postby LBJackal » Tue Nov 30, 2004 5:44 pm

Erboes wrote:
LBJackal wrote:I have Beltran down for:

.279, 40 HR, 136 R, 117 RBI, 49 SB's.

Assuming the Yanks get him of course... if not it changes a bit. That might not be technically 5 cat but I don't think that matters. What matters is how he helps overall.... and he helps a LOT overall.


I don't know, Jackal. I still say SB's are the first to go after siging a big, fat, long contract. Even if he wanted to run, whomever signs him will want to limit it. Who's going to spend over 100 mill over 7 years to risk him getting hurt?


The Yankees are paying a pretty big chunk of A-Rod's quarter billion dollar contract and they don't have a problem with him running all the time - same with Jeter and his $18M contract. With Beltran being such a better basestealer than thsoe 2, I don't think he'll stop stealing like you think he will. And 30/300 might be optimal but I don't think .279/40 is out of the question.
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Postby SaintsOfTheDiamond » Tue Nov 30, 2004 6:06 pm

Apex wrote:
SaintsOfTheDiamond wrote:I guess I was assuming he's going to the Bronx, so I don't see him hitting that many homers, even with the short porch in right. (Since he'll be batting left handed most of the time I imagine. :-?) I also don't see him swiping almost 50 bags in NY either, regardless of A-Rod's numbers last year.

Now you have me confused. Left-handed pull hitters will hit the ball to right field. Are you saying he's not a pull hitter, or should this actually help him rather than hurt him?


What I was trying to say was that even though the dimensions of Yankee Stadium (specifically the short distance to RF) would be conducive to more HR's from a left handed batter I don't think he will have a career high. Unless I'm getting left and right confused. :-o
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Postby grammysboy » Wed Dec 01, 2004 11:27 am

dicehound wrote:One guy not mentioned so far here is Carl Crawford. I think he is going to end up hitting a lot of homeruns once he grows into his frame (he's still only 23!), and will end up matching if not eclipsing Beltran's greatness in the near future.


This may be the best pick of the bunch. Crawford's got some punch, hits for pretty good average, and def has some speed. The nice thing is I don't see Pinella putting out the stop sign with Crawford. He'll get to steal as many as he likes.
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Postby Erboes » Wed Dec 01, 2004 4:51 pm

LBJackal wrote:
Erboes wrote:
LBJackal wrote:I have Beltran down for:

.279, 40 HR, 136 R, 117 RBI, 49 SB's.

Assuming the Yanks get him of course... if not it changes a bit. That might not be technically 5 cat but I don't think that matters. What matters is how he helps overall.... and he helps a LOT overall.


I don't know, Jackal. I still say SB's are the first to go after siging a big, fat, long contract. Even if he wanted to run, whomever signs him will want to limit it. Who's going to spend over 100 mill over 7 years to risk him getting hurt?


The Yankees are paying a pretty big chunk of A-Rod's quarter billion dollar contract and they don't have a problem with him running all the time - same with Jeter and his $18M contract. With Beltran being such a better basestealer than thsoe 2, I don't think he'll stop stealing like you think he will. And 30/300 might be optimal but I don't think .279/40 is out of the question.


You may be right, but I just don't see it. The guy made an incredible run to get to 40 last season in one of the most fantastic contract drives in memory and I just don't see him doing it again. It is my experience that drafting power hitters higher because of expected steals will usually come back to bite you. Look at Guerrero, whom stole 77 in two seasons but never got higher than 15 before or since. They just don't need to do it so the incentive to do so, especially once the big contract is signed, is pretty much gone. That's just my opinion though.

By the way, A-Rod is a good example for your case but Jeter is not. Stealing bases is Jeter's job, so I don't think there's a comparison. Sheffield, though, is even better since he dropped from 18 to 5 in his first season in pinstripes.
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