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If/when Kendall goes to Oakland...

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Postby reenum » Fri Nov 26, 2004 12:05 am

Tony Clark is my son wrote:But I don't understand how the A's can afford Kendall. He fits the Moneyball mold perfectly, except for his hugs contract.


Don't forget that Dye's huge contract also comes off the books this offseason. In addition, I still think Beane will trade Zito. I'm also pretty sure Beane is going to have the Pirates pick up a bit of the contract.
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Postby GotowarMissAgnes » Fri Nov 26, 2004 1:20 am

Amazinz wrote:VORP is far from being an end-all metric. You can't prove that any player is better than another based soley on VORP.

I do agree that OPS shows its flaws when you compare a player like Kendall because it favors sluggers and ignores base-stealing (although that probably helped him this year since he was thrown out almost as many times as he stole a base).

I think Total Average is a better overall indicator than OPS. I also posted the Equivalent Average numbers from BP. Kendall is not as good offensively as you're suggesting. At least not last year.

Code: Select all
           TA   EQA

Kendall   .744 .280

Varitek   .888 .299
Posada    .878 .310
Martinez  .820 .296
Lopez     .834 .300
Rodriguez .854 .311


Total Average is better than OPS, but it's not very good. Here's a comprehensive ranking of player evaluation metrics

http://knology.net/~johnfjarvis/runs_survey.html

I'm not claiming that VORP is the best metric, but it's better than TA or EQA, because it's not simply a rate stat.

The problem with your analysis here is that you are relying on rate stats alone. One of Kendall's great values is that he is very durable. Since he plays more than many catchers, he ends up generating more runs. That's why when you take EQA and turn it into EQR, you'll find that Kendall was the top ranked catcher in the NL last year and number 4 overall.

In addition, these measures only cover hitting. Win shares includes fielding in its calculations, where Kendall also picks up a couple extra. Win Shares ranks him number one last year.

I'd argue that on pretty much every metric that counted base running, fielding, and playing time in them, Kendall would rank in the top 5 catchers the last two years.
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Postby reiser » Fri Nov 26, 2004 10:36 am

GotowarMissAgnes wrote:I'd argue that on pretty much every metric that counted base running, fielding, and playing time in them, Kendall would rank in the top 5 catchers the last two years.


I don't think it's even that complicated. Kendall is one of 2, maybe 3 catchers (Lo Duca is the only other one I can think of) who regularly gets 500+ AB-and Kendall is Top 1 or 2 in OBP over the past couple of years at catcher. so that actually gives the A's much more of the classic leadoff hitter they have been looking for...di mention he steals bases too <ducks>!

I don't think UZR measures catchers (yet?), but Redman + Rhodes gets a fairly similiar dollar value off the A's payroll...for Kendall! gimme a break, what a deal. a second tier reliever and a 4th, 5th starter for an elite catcher?
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Postby stumpak » Fri Nov 26, 2004 3:52 pm

Agreed, fantastic deal for the A's, and hitting #1 or #2 in Oakland should raise Kendall's value considerably in fantasy terms.

Since the A's already have 2 1B/DHs, giving Kendall time at DH is not much of an option, but does anyone see the A's trying to give him some time in OF to keep him fresher and keep him in the line-up more?
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Postby GotowarMissAgnes » Fri Nov 26, 2004 5:59 pm

stumpak wrote:Agreed, fantastic deal for the A's, and hitting #1 or #2 in Oakland should raise Kendall's value considerably in fantasy terms.

Since the A's already have 2 1B/DHs, giving Kendall time at DH is not much of an option, but does anyone see the A's trying to give him some time in OF to keep him fresher and keep him in the line-up more?


Hatteberg really didn't play much at DH last year. Durazo had about 500 of the 600 ABs. I wouldn't be surprised to see Kendall get time at 1B/DH/OF versus lefties.
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Postby LBJackal » Fri Nov 26, 2004 6:52 pm

The reason Kendall plays so much is because the Pirates stink and he's their only hitter. I don't think that means he should be ranked higher... I'd take Pudge, Varitek, V-Mart, or Posada over him. Ranking catchers based on totals instead of averages is a bad mistake IMO because the team often determines the catcher's playing time, rather than his durability determining it. Of course durability is a part of it, but not all of it, like a total stat as opposed to average stat would suggest.

He's a very good hitter and might be worth almost as much as Varitek but the A's don't seem like a team that would spend market value for a player like Kendall. They could get rid of Rhodes' contract probably without taking on a burden, and have to pay for Redman's contract, but would you rather pay Redman $4M or Kendall $10M? I'd take Redman. He's not a lost cause, he did have a pretty good year in Florida. I don't see Kendall as a $6M improvement over Redman, especially considering Redman's contract is up in 2006 I believe while Kendall's is up in 2007. If I have the contracts for those guys wrong, forgive me, I'm going by memory :*)
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Postby GotowarMissAgnes » Fri Nov 26, 2004 7:59 pm

I agree with you generally that you want to be careful about using totals, rather than rates. And it usually is the team's decision to rest a player. But, the fact is that Kendall has shown himself to be unusually durable for a catcher. And that's worth something.

Redman is $4.25, then $4,95, with a mutual option for 2007
Kendall is $9.5, then $10.5, then $12.5

Kendall's averaged about 50 VORP the last two years.
Redman's averaged 30.
So, it's basically only a slightly higher $/win to get Kendall over the next two years.

The Pirates, according to what I've heard are paying more than half of that final year. So, in year 3 you get a 33 year old catcher, still probably better than average, for probably no worse than market value While you have him at a discount, you'd either have to pay or replace Redman.

Further, if you are the A's you need to improve your hitting more than you need to improve your pitching. What are their alternatives to Redman? They have many. What are their alternatives to Kendall? Melhuse?

Look at the list of free agent catchers and show me what combination of Redman +free agent catcher gets you a VORP of 50 for any amount of money, much less for $9.5 million.
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Postby GSes » Fri Nov 26, 2004 8:33 pm

The A's pitchers rely on their catcher, is it no concendence that they were all awesome with Ramon Hernadez then when Damian Miller came all three ended up with bad years (injury or other)

From what I read Miller often called the game diffrent then what he was asked or told to do. He did things or called things the A's pitchers were not used too over the years in certain situations etc.

Basically i read that it was believed one of the big reasons for the big three's dismil year was b/c of Damian Miller's catching and they were not comfertable with him.

Jason Kendall is offensively/defensively one of the best and has long been coveted by Billy for all those reasons and im sure the big three will LOVE him catching their games

I think he is a good thing for all the reasons, and is a great aquisiton.
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Postby perlick29 » Mon Nov 29, 2004 2:18 am

LBJackal wrote:The reason Kendall plays so much is because the Pirates stink and he's their only hitter. I don't think that means he should be ranked higher... I'd take Pudge, Varitek, V-Mart, or Posada over him. Ranking catchers based on totals instead of averages is a bad mistake IMO because the team often determines the catcher's playing time, rather than his durability determining it. Of course durability is a part of it, but not all of it, like a total stat as opposed to average stat would suggest.

He's a very good hitter and might be worth almost as much as Varitek but the A's don't seem like a team that would spend market value for a player like Kendall. They could get rid of Rhodes' contract probably without taking on a burden, and have to pay for Redman's contract, but would you rather pay Redman $4M or Kendall $10M? I'd take Redman. He's not a lost cause, he did have a pretty good year in Florida. I don't see Kendall as a $6M improvement over Redman, especially considering Redman's contract is up in 2006 I believe while Kendall's is up in 2007. If I have the contracts for those guys wrong, forgive me, I'm going by memory :*)


You know what though, let's look at this strictly from a standard 5X5 cat fantasy league. The reason I respect Kendall so much is because you can get your power RBI's, HR's from 1b, 3b, and the OF easily. Yet the catcher spot with the exception of Pudge has a lot players who hit for a low avg. and steal no bases. So Kendall is very valuable in those two cats, plus hitting high in the Oakland lineup should get him 100 runs scored which means he contributes in 3 of the 5 cats 2 of which avg. and steals always hurt people tyhe most. So in a fantasy sense he's as valuable as those other guys because of the services he provides in the non-standard catcher cats. I'll always take Kendall as my catcher rather than spending a potential high pick on the others. Just my opinion, what do you guys think of that statement?
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Postby SaintsOfTheDiamond » Mon Nov 29, 2004 2:21 pm

perlick29 wrote:
LBJackal wrote:The reason Kendall plays so much is because the Pirates stink and he's their only hitter. I don't think that means he should be ranked higher... I'd take Pudge, Varitek, V-Mart, or Posada over him. Ranking catchers based on totals instead of averages is a bad mistake IMO because the team often determines the catcher's playing time, rather than his durability determining it. Of course durability is a part of it, but not all of it, like a total stat as opposed to average stat would suggest.

He's a very good hitter and might be worth almost as much as Varitek but the A's don't seem like a team that would spend market value for a player like Kendall. They could get rid of Rhodes' contract probably without taking on a burden, and have to pay for Redman's contract, but would you rather pay Redman $4M or Kendall $10M? I'd take Redman. He's not a lost cause, he did have a pretty good year in Florida. I don't see Kendall as a $6M improvement over Redman, especially considering Redman's contract is up in 2006 I believe while Kendall's is up in 2007. If I have the contracts for those guys wrong, forgive me, I'm going by memory :*)


You know what though, let's look at this strictly from a standard 5X5 cat fantasy league. The reason I respect Kendall so much is because you can get your power RBI's, HR's from 1b, 3b, and the OF easily. Yet the catcher spot with the exception of Pudge has a lot players who hit for a low avg. and steal no bases. So Kendall is very valuable in those two cats, plus hitting high in the Oakland lineup should get him 100 runs scored which means he contributes in 3 of the 5 cats 2 of which avg. and steals always hurt people tyhe most. So in a fantasy sense he's as valuable as those other guys because of the services he provides in the non-standard catcher cats. I'll always take Kendall as my catcher rather than spending a potential high pick on the others. Just my opinion, what do you guys think of that statement?


I tend to agree. I think he's undervalued by lots of fantasy owners, but he contributes solid numbers to a position that has maybe half a dozen good options.
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