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Postby Amazinz » Mon Nov 29, 2004 9:01 pm

dleoboyd wrote:Interesting rankings. That is the highest I've ever seen Melvin Mora and David Wright that is also the lowest I've seen Eric Chavez, what is the rationale you used in your rankings? Is this the order you would draft them in, or is this based on your projections for next season?


Mora .315 / HR 25 / R 100 / RBI 90 / SB 10

Chavez .280 / HR 32 / R 95 / RBI 95 / SB 8

Wright is the weakest link of my prelim projections because I am basing it on a half-year of ML production and minor league stats. That's just where he fell statistically for now.

Arod is alone at #1. From 2 - 10 (forgetting about Wright for a moment) I see 8 guys who are all going to produce very close to each other. Right now you could rearrange 2-10 in almost any order I think.
Last edited by Amazinz on Mon Nov 29, 2004 9:24 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Postby Tavish » Mon Nov 29, 2004 9:02 pm

Pedantic wrote:Beltre is an entirely different scenario than Ramirez, IMO. He's a player who's always had an immense talent and finally realized it.


Ramirez was almost as highly regarded when he started with the Pirates and was all of 16 years old.
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Postby Savoy Special » Mon Nov 29, 2004 9:08 pm

What kind of stats do you see out of David Wright? Would you keep him at $10 in a 4 x 4 league?
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Postby dleoboyd » Mon Nov 29, 2004 9:34 pm

Pedantic wrote:
dleoboyd wrote:I forgot to mention that 2004 was Aramis Ramirez' 2nd .300, 30+HR, 100+ RBI season and it was his third with over 25 HR and 100 RBIs......so it really couldn't be a one year thing, I suppose it could have been a career year, but he is only 26........


Yeah, you're right, he did have a year over or better than .300, 30 HR, and 100 RBI. Look at the year after that. 2005 is the year after.

Of course, it's possible he continues his upward trend. It's possible he disappoints sorely. Anything is possible. What we want is what's most probable. I don't know about you, but I don't see Ramirez as a bet I'd particularly like to take as early as he'll likely be taken.

Beltre is an entirely different scenario than Ramirez, IMO. He's a player who's always had an immense talent and finally realized it. And you won't see my rankings up here, ever. Far too many people I'm in leagues with lurk in the shadows here. Yeah, you know who you are. ;-) :-D

On a side note, is it just me or is Ramirez aging in reverse? Didn't he used to be twenty-eight? I've never known a player from the Dominican to jump back two years. :-?



Maybe I'm not understanding you, or maybe you're not understanding me......I was saying that Ramirez has already had TWO years of .300, 30, 100 (2001 and 2004) and THREE years of 25,100. Ramirez has been a tantalizing talent as long as he's been in the majors. I really don't see the difference between he and Beltre, except for the fact that Ramirez has had 2 or 3 really productive seasons and Beltre has only had one (although Beltre's one season was a hell of a season).

My rankings are here in this tread.....I'd still take Beltre over Ramirez, but I don't think there is a huge gulf between them.
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Postby dleoboyd » Mon Nov 29, 2004 9:38 pm

Amazinz wrote:
dleoboyd wrote:Interesting rankings. That is the highest I've ever seen Melvin Mora and David Wright that is also the lowest I've seen Eric Chavez, what is the rationale you used in your rankings? Is this the order you would draft them in, or is this based on your projections for next season?


Mora .315 / HR 25 / R 100 / RBI 90 / SB 10

Chavez .280 / HR 32 / R 95 / RBI 95 / SB 8

Wright is the weakest link of my prelim projections because I am basing it on a half-year of ML production and minor league stats. That's just where he fell statistically for now.

Arod is alone at #1. From 2 - 10 (forgetting about Wright for a moment) I see 8 guys who are all going to produce very close to each other. Right now you could rearrange 2-10 in almost any order I think.



Okay, that's a good enough explanation for me...I was just wondering if you were projecting significantly different numbers than I was, but I can see these guys being a bit difficult to rank.
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Postby Cornbread Maxwell » Tue Nov 30, 2004 10:48 am

dleoboyd wrote:
Cornbread Maxwell wrote:My November guess:

Top 12:
Arod
Rolen
Beltre
Chavez
Blalock
Glaus
Lowell
Huff
Mora
CJones
Ramirez
Burroughs

Honorable mention: Wright, Figgins, Blake, Hillenbrand, Mueller, Castilla



Not a big Aramis Ramirez fan, huh? Just curious, why do you have him ranked so low? I'm just interested to hear your reasoning. :-)


Well, one thing about me is that along with the normal statistical analysis I also have admitted biases that I play with. Whether its just a simple gut feeling, or an actual dislike for a certain player (BBoone, LoDuca), these intangibles will absolutely show up in my rankings.

As for Ramirez, yes, I am not a big fan of his and see his average last yr as a peak for him and dont expect to see him hit much above .280.

Amazinz wrote:Arod is alone at #1. From 2 - 10 (forgetting about Wright for a moment) I see 8 guys who are all going to produce very close to each other. Right now you could rearrange 2-10 in almost any order I think.


I agree with this comment - after the top 3B its a complete crapshoot with a good 5-8 3B who could be great picks. Thats why I doubt I will take a 3B early this yr (same as last yr).
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