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Postby dleoboyd » Wed Nov 24, 2004 3:22 pm

Amazinz wrote:Yes, Runs and RBIs are more indicative of the team than the player but we're not evaluating real baseball talent where trying to figure out how valuable a player will be in fantasy. By concentrating soley on OPS it will skew your rankings.

For example, if you have two players of equal OPS based on your projections one playing for the Yanks and the other playing for Arizona who do you think will be more valuable for fantasy baseball? The guy in the Yankees lineup will be more valuable but according to ranking them based on individual metrics they will have equal value.

As far as Dunn's plate discipline: the guy has a lifetime .382 OBP and averages 4.26 pitchers per plate appearance. I don't see his plate discipline increasing by any significant amount.



Isn't the whole point of fantasy baseball to see who can get the best REAL baseball players on their team? Production in real baseball = a good fantasy team. I've been winning fantasy baseball leagues for 5 years using variations of my methods.....I can see that some of you guys aren't very open to new ideas....there isn't any one right way do to this. If anyone is interested in logging into my some of my leagues, I'd be happy to let you see the results. My methods work.
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Postby dleoboyd » Wed Nov 24, 2004 3:25 pm

Pogotheostrich wrote:
dleoboyd wrote:
So0peRsPam wrote:dleoboyd, please stop with your "analysis" of Dunn, he WON'T BE A TOP 10 OUTFIELDER... period.



Ummm, he ended up ranked the #11 OF last season, according to yahoo's typical 5x5 ROTO league.....so you're saying that at age 25 he can't possibly get any better? :-?
I wouldn't take too much stock in Yahoo's rankings. I had him at 18 last year but I don't see how he can crack the top 10 without drastically improving his BA.



I don't put ANY stock in Yahoo's "O-Rank", but their season ending rankings are just based on players' numbers from the season. I'm not exactly sure what type of formula they use to rank them, however.

If you have some other method of ranking players, according to there numbers from last year, I'd be open to it.
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Postby Amazinz » Wed Nov 24, 2004 3:25 pm

dleoboyd wrote:
Amazinz wrote:Yes, Runs and RBIs are more indicative of the team than the player but we're not evaluating real baseball talent where trying to figure out how valuable a player will be in fantasy. By concentrating soley on OPS it will skew your rankings.

For example, if you have two players of equal OPS based on your projections one playing for the Yanks and the other playing for Arizona who do you think will be more valuable for fantasy baseball? The guy in the Yankees lineup will be more valuable but according to ranking them based on individual metrics they will have equal value.

As far as Dunn's plate discipline: the guy has a lifetime .382 OBP and averages 4.26 pitchers per plate appearance. I don't see his plate discipline increasing by any significant amount.



Isn't the whole point of fantasy baseball to see who can get the best REAL baseball players on their team? Production in real baseball = a good fantasy team. I've been winning fantasy baseball leagues for 5 years using variations of my methods.....I can see that some of you guys aren't very open to new ideas....there isn't any one right way do to this. If anyone is interested in logging into my some of my leagues, I'd be happy to let you see the results. My methods work.

If you want to argue about the value of new age metrics you're preaching to the choir. You won't find too many on this board that will disagree with you. But not when it comes to fantasy.

The whole point of fantasy baseball is not to get the best real players on your team. The point is to accumulate the players who produce best in your league's scoring system. This is not the same thing and is the reason Bonds isn't drafted #1 overall in 5x5 roto.
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Postby Baseballer02 » Wed Nov 24, 2004 3:30 pm

dleoboyd wrote:LOL, you're still not understanding.....the most comprehensive stats denote player production. If a guy is hitting for good average, getting on base, and slugging the hell out of the ball, don't you think he will score and knock in a good amount of runs? Trying to project runs and rbi's are like trying to project wins for a SP, it's almost impossible to do, because they are dependant on so many other variables.

Not necessarily, look at Dunn for an example. His OPS was 8th out of OFers, OBP ranked 11th out of OFers, however he was tied in 12th place in runs scored and ranked 13th in RBIs among outfielders. I think it's much earier to rely on a player who has produced more R's and RBI's year after year, rather than hoping somebody does because of the mere fact that he gets on base more. It's the intangibles you mentioned(or I believe you did), but the people who are producing year-in-year-out are the ones who seem to have the intangibles in their favor.

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Postby dleoboyd » Wed Nov 24, 2004 3:31 pm

Amazinz wrote:
dleoboyd wrote:
Amazinz wrote:Yes, Runs and RBIs are more indicative of the team than the player but we're not evaluating real baseball talent where trying to figure out how valuable a player will be in fantasy. By concentrating soley on OPS it will skew your rankings.

For example, if you have two players of equal OPS based on your projections one playing for the Yanks and the other playing for Arizona who do you think will be more valuable for fantasy baseball? The guy in the Yankees lineup will be more valuable but according to ranking them based on individual metrics they will have equal value.

As far as Dunn's plate discipline: the guy has a lifetime .382 OBP and averages 4.26 pitchers per plate appearance. I don't see his plate discipline increasing by any significant amount.



Isn't the whole point of fantasy baseball to see who can get the best REAL baseball players on their team? Production in real baseball = a good fantasy team. I've been winning fantasy baseball leagues for 5 years using variations of my methods.....I can see that some of you guys aren't very open to new ideas....there isn't any one right way do to this. If anyone is interested in logging into my some of my leagues, I'd be happy to let you see the results. My methods work.

If you want to argue about the value of new age metrics you're preaching to the choir. You won't find too many on this board that will disagree with you. But not when it comes to fantasy.

The whole point of fantasy baseball is not to get the best real players on your team. The point is to accumulate the players who produce best in your league's scoring system. This is not the same thing and is the reason Bonds isn't drafted #1 overall in 5x5 roto.



I'm glad that some of you guys are into the "new age metrics" as well.......Yes, Bonds isn't drafted #1 overall in most leagues, but he is pretty close. I love your logic. If the best players aren't the ones being drafted first, doesn't that denote a problem with fantasy baseball? Shouldn't we play in leagues where the scoring systems used, make the best players the most valuable? Do I need to get into the original origin of fantasy baseball?
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Postby dleoboyd » Wed Nov 24, 2004 3:33 pm

Baseballer02 wrote:
dleoboyd wrote:LOL, you're still not understanding.....the most comprehensive stats denote player production. If a guy is hitting for good average, getting on base, and slugging the hell out of the ball, don't you think he will score and knock in a good amount of runs? Trying to project runs and rbi's are like trying to project wins for a SP, it's almost impossible to do, because they are dependant on so many other variables.

Not necessarily, look at Dunn for an example. His OPS was 8th out of OFers, OBP ranked 11th out of OFers, however he was tied in 12th place in runs scored and ranked 13th in RBIs among outfielders. I think it's much earier to rely on a player who has produced more R's and RBI's year after year, rather than hoping somebody does because of the mere fact that he gets on base more. It's the intangibles you mentioned(or I believe you did), but the people who are producing year-in-year-out are the ones who seem to have the intangibles in their favor.



That is certainly a legit way of looking at the relationship....I personally prefer looking at it the other way around.
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Postby Baseballer02 » Wed Nov 24, 2004 3:35 pm

dleoboyd, by all means how much of an improvement do you think someone with a .249 career average can possibly make to put him in the top 10 list of outfielders?
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Postby Pogotheostrich » Wed Nov 24, 2004 3:35 pm

dleoboyd wrote:I'm glad that some of you guys are into the "new age metrics" as well.......Yes, Bonds isn't drafted #1 overall in most leagues, but he is pretty close. I love your logic. If the best players aren't the ones being drafted first, doesn't that denote a problem with fantasy baseball? Shouldn't we play in leagues where the scoring systems used, make the best players the most valuable? Do I need to get into the original origin of fantasy baseball?
Your own list has Bonds 3rd among OF. And I have yet to find a scoring system that is truely representative of real players values.
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Postby Amazinz » Wed Nov 24, 2004 3:40 pm

dleoboyd wrote:I'm glad that some of you guys are into the "new age metrics" as well.......Yes, Bonds isn't drafted #1 overall in most leagues, but he is pretty close. I love your logic. If the best players aren't the ones being drafted first, doesn't that denote a problem with fantasy baseball? Shouldn't we play in leagues where the scoring systems used, make the best players the most valuable? Do I need to get into the original origin of fantasy baseball?

I am not sure how to take that comment. Nothing is wrong with my logic. Many people do play in "Sabremetric" leagues (I play in one) solely for that reason. But the majority of people still play in 5x5 roto and H2H leagues because they are fun. And when you compare my "Sabremetric" cheat sheet to my 5x5 cheat sheet they look very different. Right or wrong that's just the way it is. ;-)
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Postby dleoboyd » Wed Nov 24, 2004 3:43 pm

In response to the relationship between Dunn's OPS/OBP and RBI/RUNS, I'd say that those stats are pretty telling. I never said that there would be an exact coloration between OPS, etc and RBIs or runs, I just said that they are indicators. Since Dunn's OPS and OBP rankings were higher than his run and rbi rankings, I would hypothesize that next year his RBI and Runs totals and rankings will improve.

OTOH, a guy that had better RBI and Run rankings than his OPS, etc would have a better chance at declining the next season, because he was performing a bit above his capabilities, or he was just in a situation like Don Mattingly:

RBI are opportunistic; RBI are a team stat and are not indicative of a player's ability.
In 1985 Don Mattingly had a great year. The Yankees often batted Rickey Henderson first and Mattingly second. Henderson was having an even better year than Mattingly, reaching base 42% of the time and putting himself in scoring position constantly thanks to his 28 doubles, five triples, and 80 stolen bases--the last of which cost the Yankees only 10 caught stealing. At his peak, Henderson was the rare player where the rewards of stealing handily outweighed the risks. Hitting .324/.371/.567 behind this on-base dynamo, Mattingly drove in 145 runs and won the MVP award.

The next year, Mattingly was even better, improving his numbers to .352/.394/.573. Oddly, he drove in 32 fewer runs. The problem was Henderson, who saw his OBP drop to .358 in 1986, meaning he was on base less often. Better Mattingly + Worse Henderson = fewer RBI opportunities for Mattingly. If RBI were an expression of a player's ability, we should hold the shortfall against Mattingly despite his being better than the year before. That doesn't make much sense
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