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Postby dleoboyd » Wed Nov 24, 2004 2:56 pm

Baseballer02 wrote:
dleoboyd wrote:Here's my take on the top OF:


Vladimir Guerrero
Carlos Beltran
Barry Bonds
Manny Ramirez

Bob Abreu
Miguel Cabrera
Gary Sheffield
Magglio Ordonez
Jim Edmonds
Adam Dunn


To me I see a break after the top 4, so I've got Cabrera in the 2nd tier.


Dunn in the top 10? His HRs are great, but there's more OFs who get just as many runs and RBIs as him without having a dismal average. I've got Dunn 17th in the OF. :-?



I put no emphasis on runs in my rankings (I think they are a pretty worthless stat and don't play in leagues where they are a category). So my rankings are reflective of one of the more comprehensive stats: OPS, SLG%, and OBP.

You have to figure in that Dunn is only 25 years old, he hit 46 HRs last year and MLB players don't typically peak, on average, until age 27. Dunn is 6'6" 240 LBS, you have to think that with in the next few years, as he develops more plate discipline, this guy is going to be hitting .280/.420/.600 with 50+ HRs. So yeah, I rank him pretty high.

RBI's also aren't really a very good stat for evaluating a player's performance. You Could Look It Up: Backlash
There are so many points on this under: "4: LIES, DAMNED LIES, WITHOUT STATISTICS" Here is one of them:

RBI are opportunistic; RBI are a team stat and are not indicative of a player's ability.
In 1985 Don Mattingly had a great year. The Yankees often batted Rickey Henderson first and Mattingly second. Henderson was having an even better year than Mattingly, reaching base 42% of the time and putting himself in scoring position constantly thanks to his 28 doubles, five triples, and 80 stolen bases--the last of which cost the Yankees only 10 caught stealing. At his peak, Henderson was the rare player where the rewards of stealing handily outweighed the risks. Hitting .324/.371/.567 behind this on-base dynamo, Mattingly drove in 145 runs and won the MVP award.

The next year, Mattingly was even better, improving his numbers to .352/.394/.573. Oddly, he drove in 32 fewer runs. The problem was Henderson, who saw his OBP drop to .358 in 1986, meaning he was on base less often. Better Mattingly + Worse Henderson = fewer RBI opportunities for Mattingly. If RBI were an expression of a player's ability, we should hold the shortfall against Mattingly despite his being better than the year before. That doesn't make much sense

RBI's aren't an expression of a player's ability (See also Baseball Prospectus Basics: Measuring Offense). Holding Mattingly responsible for the drop in RBI is silly when it was because Ricky Henderson didn't get on base as much. Likewise claiming Mattingly's greatness came from his RBI's is silly.

Just because a player has had high RBI's historically, doesn't mean that he will continue to do so.


There is a lot of other stuff in BP's Basics series

*Edit* Added one sentance
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Postby Baseballer02 » Wed Nov 24, 2004 3:02 pm

So there's two stats in a standard 5x5 of which you're not counting. Geeze, that's sure to help the people here who play in standard leagues build a winner. If you're rankings are based on the stats you use in the leagues you play in, and not the norm, then you should put a little note of that in your rankings posts.
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Postby Mustangs989 » Wed Nov 24, 2004 3:03 pm

Baseballer02 wrote:Mustangs, aren't you putting way too much value in Crawford's steals to rank him that high in the OF?

I don't think so, but I might be. 60 steals plus he'll continue to improve in the power department, I have him for around 15-20 HR this year. He'll only be 24 next year and he's pretty good height at 6'2'' so he's got room to get stronger.
He'll score a lot of runs with a young improving Devil Ray offense. IF Gathright bats leadoff his RBI's should go up, I don't know much on the situation. Plus he hits for a good average around .300.
Maybe he should go behind MCab, Shef, Berkman, and Mags in my rankings but no lower than that IMO.
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Postby Pogotheostrich » Wed Nov 24, 2004 3:06 pm

dleoboyd wrote:You have to figure in that Dunn is only 25 years old, he hit 46 HRs last year and MLB players don't typically peak, on average, until age 27. Dunn is 6'6" 240 LBS, you have to think that with in the next few years, as he develops more plate discipline, this guy is going to be hitting .280/.420/.600 with 50+ HRs. So yeah, I rank him pretty high.
You really think that Dunn will develop more plate discipline? He is already in the top 10 in #P/PA and BB in MLB. In fact the Reds have been pushing him to be more aggressive in RBI situations. I can't see anyway he develops more plate discipline.
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Postby Baseballer02 » Wed Nov 24, 2004 3:09 pm

Mustangs989 wrote:
Baseballer02 wrote:Mustangs, aren't you putting way too much value in Crawford's steals to rank him that high in the OF?

I don't think so, but I might be. 60 steals plus he'll continue to improve in the power department, I have him for around 15-20 HR this year. He'll only be 24 next year and he's pretty good height at 6'2'' so he's got room to get stronger.
He'll score a lot of runs with a young improving Devil Ray offense. IF Gathright bats leadoff his RBI's should go up, I don't know much on the situation. Plus he hits for a good average around .300.
Maybe he should go behind MCab, Shef, Berkman, and Mags in my rankings but no lower than that IMO.


Our predictions seem to be pretty close, as I've got him down for 105/15/60/60/.300. His steals are what makes him most valuable, but you can't place too much value on them. I see Crawford as an early 3rd round pick, but if someone planned to pick him any earlier I'd much rather wait 'til the late rounds to get guys like Figgins, Sanchez, Chavez, etc.
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Postby so0perspam » Wed Nov 24, 2004 3:11 pm

dleoboyd, please stop with your "analysis" of Dunn, he WON'T BE A TOP 10 OUTFIELDER... period.
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Postby dleoboyd » Wed Nov 24, 2004 3:14 pm

Baseballer02 wrote:So there's two stats in a standard 5x5 of which you're not counting. Geeze, that's sure to help the people here who play in standard leagues build a winner. If you're rankings are based on the stats you use in the leagues you play in, and not the norm, then you should put a little note of that in your rankings posts.



LOL, you're still not understanding.....the most comprehensive stats denote player production. If a guy is hitting for good average, getting on base, and slugging the hell out of the ball, don't you think he will score and knock in a good amount of runs? Trying to project runs and rbi's are like trying to project wins for a SP, it's almost impossible to do, because they are dependant on so many other variables.

Using stats that better evaluate a player's talent and true production (OBP, SLG%, OPS, BAA, K/9IP, K/BB, etc) will allow you to get a better fix on a player's true value. This way you won't overpay for guys that put up gaudy "ROTO" numbers, but were most likely just in the right place at the right time and probably won't post those numbers again.
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Postby Amazinz » Wed Nov 24, 2004 3:17 pm

Yes, Runs and RBIs are more indicative of the team than the player but we're not evaluating real baseball talent where trying to figure out how valuable a player will be in fantasy. By concentrating soley on OPS it will skew your rankings.

For example, if you have two players of equal OPS based on your projections one playing for the Yanks and the other playing for Arizona who do you think will be more valuable for fantasy baseball? The guy in the Yankees lineup will be more valuable but according to ranking them based on individual metrics they will have equal value.

As far as Dunn's plate discipline: the guy has a lifetime .382 OBP and averages 4.26 pitchers per plate appearance. I don't see his plate discipline increasing by any significant amount.
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Postby dleoboyd » Wed Nov 24, 2004 3:17 pm

So0peRsPam wrote:dleoboyd, please stop with your "analysis" of Dunn, he WON'T BE A TOP 10 OUTFIELDER... period.



Ummm, he ended up ranked the #11 OF last season, according to yahoo's typical 5x5 ROTO league.....so you're saying that at age 25 he can't possibly get any better? :-?
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Postby Pogotheostrich » Wed Nov 24, 2004 3:19 pm

dleoboyd wrote:
So0peRsPam wrote:dleoboyd, please stop with your "analysis" of Dunn, he WON'T BE A TOP 10 OUTFIELDER... period.



Ummm, he ended up ranked the #11 OF last season, according to yahoo's typical 5x5 ROTO league.....so you're saying that at age 25 he can't possibly get any better? :-?
I wouldn't take too much stock in Yahoo's rankings. I had him at 18 last year but I don't see how he can crack the top 10 without drastically improving his BA.
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