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Bill James' projections -- did you guys see this?

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Postby Erboes » Wed Nov 24, 2004 3:25 pm

Pogotheostrich wrote:
Erboes wrote:Yeah, this is a job for a young, unmarried, pimple-faced kid who has nothing better to do. Jackal?
:-t


What happened to your senses of humor? Jackal won't even get mad at that one.
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Postby Pogotheostrich » Wed Nov 24, 2004 3:37 pm

Erboes wrote:
Pogotheostrich wrote:
Erboes wrote:Yeah, this is a job for a young, unmarried, pimple-faced kid who has nothing better to do. Jackal?
:-t


What happened to your senses of humor? Jackal won't even get mad at that one.
Oh I laughed at it all right but I just seems vindictive bring Jackal into the conversation only to take a crack at him.
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Postby Erboes » Wed Nov 24, 2004 3:57 pm

You wanna know a secret? I actually like Jackal. I think people like him bring a lot to the table as far as debate. People who make the blood boil tends to make people think a little bit more. He is young and willing to learn. Sure, he can be a jackass, but so what? Keep up the good work, Jackal (and I hear Clearosil works wonders).
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Postby Pogotheostrich » Wed Nov 24, 2004 4:04 pm

Erboes wrote:You wanna know a secret? I actually like Jackal. I think people like him bring a lot to the table as far as debate. People who make the blood boil tends to make people think a little bit more. He is young and willing to learn. Sure, he can be a jackass, but so what? Keep up the good work, Jackal (and I hear Clearosil works wonders).
Great. Now I ruined it for everyone. Sorry :-/ Instead of a Jackal/Erboes cagematch we get a tea party. :-D
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Postby LBJackal » Wed Nov 24, 2004 6:27 pm

Cage match? Bring it on, I'll whoop him! And I hear preparation H works well for hemorrhoids. You really should eat more prunes though ;-D

As for the comparison to players who jumped .120 OPS points - that can be seen as somewhat natural progression. They were for the most part good hitters before and increased their skill gradually. Beltre was a horrible hitter for 5 years, and then jumped 300 points! I don't think there is precedent for this to base an assumption on. We can all assume but I don't think anybody has evidence to suggest they know what he'll do. He's about as volatile a player as you can get, prediction wise. Due to the uncertainty and plethora (you like that word, eh) of 3B's out there I'm not drafting him before the end of the second round.

Hell, this is a lot more than the Brady Anderson fluke year - Brady only increased 200 OPS points, and fell right back to normal. Yeah, he was 32 and Beltre is 26, but Brady only had 2 more years of MLB experience at the time. I'm not saying he'll pull a Brady Anderson because he's a much better hitter than Brady was, but I'm being cautious.
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Postby GotowarMissAgnes » Wed Nov 24, 2004 8:29 pm

LBJackal wrote:Cage match? Bring it on, I'll whoop him! And I hear preparation H works well for hemorrhoids. You really should eat more prunes though ;-D

As for the comparison to players who jumped .120 OPS points - that can be seen as somewhat natural progression. They were for the most part good hitters before and increased their skill gradually. Beltre was a horrible hitter for 5 years, and then jumped 300 points! I don't think there is precedent for this to base an assumption on. We can all assume but I don't think anybody has evidence to suggest they know what he'll do. He's about as volatile a player as you can get, prediction wise. Due to the uncertainty and plethora (you like that word, eh) of 3B's out there I'm not drafting him before the end of the second round.

Hell, this is a lot more than the Brady Anderson fluke year - Brady only increased 200 OPS points, and fell right back to normal. Yeah, he was 32 and Beltre is 26, but Brady only had 2 more years of MLB experience at the time. I'm not saying he'll pull a Brady Anderson because he's a much better hitter than Brady was, but I'm being cautious.


Beltre really wasn't horrible for 5 years. His first year he was average and his second he was 16 percent better than average. That's very, very good considering his age. Then he had three straight off years.

But I agree with the assessment that he's likely tobe overrated by most this spring.
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Postby GotowarMissAgnes » Thu Nov 25, 2004 2:05 pm

Ok, just for fun last night, I downloaded the Lahmann database, which includes stats on all players from pre-1900 to 2004. I looked for all players from 1960 onward who had an increase in OPS that was 40% or more (Beltre's increase was 42%) and had 300+ ABs in the year prior to the jump and the year of the jump (so I wasn't getting fluky stuff related to playing time). I removed a few Coors field jumps that are almost certainly park related.

There are only TEN players that fit those criteria (11 counting Beltre). It includes a lot of names you might recognize including Elston Howard, Cito Gaston, Tommie Agee, Dusty Baker, Javy Lopez, Terry Pendleton, Rico Petrocelli, Jimmy Wynn, Tim Wallach, Scott Brosius. It is a mix of older guys like Brosius and youngsters like Rico, but mostly composed of guys under age 30 when the spike occurred.

Of that group of 10, only one, Tommie Agee, completely maintained their spike in the following year. His spike is partially the result of an injury in the pre-spike year, I think.

Terry Pendleton saw his OPS drop just 7% from his spike, still dropping from 880 to 818.

Cito had the worst performance sandwiching OPS of 585 and 650 around a 907.

The other 7 players were grouped pretty tightly around 15-20% decline from the spike.

As a group the ten players maintained 53% of their spike (154 of the 290 average spike). The post-spike OPS was 15% lower, on average, than the spike OPS.

Applied to Beltre, that would make his expected OPS about 864.

Again, those are small numbers, etc. etc. Still, each time I do an analysis, it points to Beltre's numbers being more in the high 800s, low 900s, rather than up near what he did last year.

Petrocelli is a good comp to Beltre, beginning his career at age 22, with a strong performance, followed by a bad year at 23, a good year at 24, and another off year at 25. At age 26 he posts an OPS of .992. That's followed by some decent above average years, but nothing close to his 1969. Like Beltre, Petro had a big batting average jump in his spike year, which he never ame close to again.
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Postby LBJackal » Thu Nov 25, 2004 4:13 pm

So thereis a bit of precedent.... not enough to get a conclusion IMO, other than we really can't be sure what he'll do. He could be awesome and post better numbers, btu I'm not going to take that chance. Maybe other people will think the same though so I wno't say I won't draft him... late 2nd round would be the earliest. If I get #1-#3 pick and get Beltran first, and Beltre second, that'd be some combo if Beltre continues like last season. I'd have a great head start in every single category.

It'll be interesting to see how he does in 2005 though, that's for sure. Him and Ben Seets (I don't think Ben Sheets is a fluke however; that K/BB doesn't happen by fluke) will both be interesting to watch. I don't think there has been a breakout pitcher or hitter have a season like that in a long time (while Loaiza's was good, it wasn't nearly as good as Sheets' IMO) so it's weird to see them happen in the same year. Makes you wonder who will be the Oliver Perez/Ben Sheets/Adrian Beltre of 2005.
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Postby Bloody Nipples » Thu Nov 25, 2004 4:31 pm

I have a question about Beltre that I dont know where to find the answer to, so I'll ask it here. I know he was a top prospect and was considered to have a ton of potential. Does anyone have access to a scouting report of him from the minors, or something like that? One reason I think he could repeat (or come very close to) last years numbers is because I know everyone always expected him to be great. There is a reason he was a perenial last-round sleeper. So, are there any reports on him from the early days?
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Postby GotowarMissAgnes » Thu Nov 25, 2004 10:37 pm

Bloody Nipples wrote:I have a question about Beltre that I dont know where to find the answer to, so I'll ask it here. I know he was a top prospect and was considered to have a ton of potential. Does anyone have access to a scouting report of him from the minors, or something like that? One reason I think he could repeat (or come very close to) last years numbers is because I know everyone always expected him to be great. There is a reason he was a perenial last-round sleeper. So, are there any reports on him from the early days?


Damn, I thought I answered this.

Yes, Beltre was extremely highly regarded in the minors and his first two years in the majors looked like he was going to fulfill that promise. Basically, he was putting up above average numbers and wasn't even 22, which is Hall of Fame potential at that age.

Then, he had 2001-03. So, that's really clouded the issue. Certainly, 2001 was injury related, and even 2002 might be traced to the appendix. But three straight years of below average performance made a lot of people wonder what his real ability was.

You can read some interesting stuff..


http://www.johnbenson.com/stars.html

http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/baseba ... teen_team/
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