Most of you probably read Gammon's recent column in which he included some of James' projections, but since I have heard no one talking about this I thought I would troll for some opinions. Here are the few that stood out. He only gives OPS, so those are the percentages given:
Well, besides the fact that James can't spell, I think his major league projections are based on previous seasons, so that explains Beltre's low OPS. And as to Pickering and McPherson, I think those are AAA numbers.
Since I am not familiar with how he does his projections, are you saying he does the three year average thing? If you could explain how he does it I would greatly appreciate it.
With Pickering and MacPherson, I believe those are MLE's and not their minor league numbers which, I think, just goes to show you how worthless they are.
Yes, I am cherry-picking. Great fun if you do it right. Those are, however, the ones that seem quite odd.
Can't say that I have ever bought a book or mag for fantasy baseball. It is much more fun to come up with my own rankings and all of last year's stats are online.
Pedantic wrote:Well, besides the fact that James can't spell, I think his major league projections are based on previous seasons, so that explains Beltre's low OPS. And as to Pickering and McPherson, I think those are AAA numbers.
Erboes wrote:Since I am not familiar with how he does his projections, are you saying he does the three year average thing? If you could explain how he does it I would greatly appreciate it.
With Pickering and MacPherson, I believe those are MLE's and not their minor league numbers which, I think, just goes to show you how worthless they are.
I don't know of any projection system that is not based on previous seasons in some way! I also do not know of any projection system that does not give greater weight to more recent data and less weight to data in the more distant past. Those would seem to be pretty basic and common elements of a good projection system.
I don't know exactly what James uses these days.
Beltre seems reasonable to me. People put WAY too much weight on one season that is totally out of pattern with previous years. Suppose I just told you there was a guy that had three straight years of sub .730 OPS, who then had one year over 1.000. Why would you assume that he would duplicate last year?
Anybody remember Brady Anderson? I do, because I made a boatload of money predicting that he'd never hit more than 30 HRs again.
Much of Beltre's improvement last year was in batting average, which jumped a fluky 98 points, 44 points higher than his previous career high, and 60 point more than his current career average. BA jumps like that are usually not sustained. If his average jumps down to the 270-290 range, consistent with his major and minor league career, then his OBP falls to about 320-330. Fewer hits means fewer homers and doubles, and his slugging drops to 530-540 or right about what James predicts.
Pickering and McPherson are predictions of what they will do in the majors. I'm sure those are not MLEs, but are certainly based on MLEs (MLEs are translations of what players did in the past to their "Major League Equivalent", not predictions). And as study after study as showed predictions based on MLEs are just as accurate as predictions based on major league data.
Pedantic wrote:Well, besides the fact that James can't spell, I think his major league projections are based on previous seasons, so that explains Beltre's low OPS. And as to Pickering and McPherson, I think those are AAA numbers.
Erboes wrote:Since I am not familiar with how he does his projections, are you saying he does the three year average thing? If you could explain how he does it I would greatly appreciate it.
With Pickering and MacPherson, I believe those are MLE's and not their minor league numbers which, I think, just goes to show you how worthless they are.
I don't know of any projection system that is not based on previous seasons in some way! I also do not know of any projection system that does not give greater weight to more recent data and less weight to data in the more distant past. Those would seem to be pretty basic and common elements of a good projection system. \ I don't know exactly what James uses these days.
Beltre seems reasonable to me. People put WAY too much weight on one season that is totally out of pattern with previous years. Suppose I just told you there was a guy that had three straight years of sub .730 OPS, who then had one year over 1.000. Why would you assume that he would duplicate last year?Anybody remember Brady Anderson? I do, because I made a boatload of money predicting that he'd never hit more than 30 HRs again.
Much of Beltre's improvement last year was in batting average, which jumped a fluky 98 points, 44 points higher than his previous career high, and 60 point more than his current career average. BA jumps like that are usually not sustained. If his average jumps down to the 270-290 range, consistent with his major and minor league career, then his OBP falls to about 320-330. Fewer hits means fewer homers and doubles, and his slugging drops to 530-540 or right about what James predicts.
Pickering and McPherson are predictions of what they will do in the majors. I'm sure those are not MLEs, but are certainly based on MLEs (MLEs are translations of what players did in the past to their "Major League Equivalent", not predictions). And as study after study as showed predictions based on MLEs are just as accurate as predictions based on major league data.
BTW, compare Beltre to R. Hidalgo
Agnes, don't you think that these two sentences contradict themselves just a tad?
And everytime you mention an Anderson or Hidalgo alls you are doing is citing the exceptions to the rule, and the rule is most players do not break out in their rookie seasons. In most cases, it takes them a few seasons to actually start producing up to their capabilities, and once they do they normally do not revert back to their struggling early seasons. Other than Pujols, that is the norm. Besides, what would you say if Beltre played in the minors until he cracked through last season at age 25 and put up those types of numbers?
So I guess you are backing James in saying that come draft day I should be taking Pickering and MacPherson ahead of this list of FA's since you say these MLE's are just as accurate as any other projection method? Looking at some of his projections I will have to say that you are right as long as you are using his projections in comparison.
Wow Agnes, comparing Beltre to Brady Anderson? Not a good comparison at all.
Beltre has always been considered a superstar-in-waiting. The guy started out in the majors when he was 19. He has had medical problems and a lot of pressure put on him - but last year when he was fully healthy he produced. There is no reason to expect his to regress. How many players out there are 5 year MLB vets at the age of 25 coming off of an MVP-type year? He is first round material for sure.
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by Erboes » Tue Nov 23, 2004 12:21 pm 
