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Bill James' projections -- did you guys see this?

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Bill James' projections -- did you guys see this?

Postby Erboes » Tue Nov 23, 2004 12:21 pm

Most of you probably read Gammon's recent column in which he included some of James' projections, but since I have heard no one talking about this I thought I would troll for some opinions. Here are the few that stood out. He only gives OPS, so those are the percentages given:

Pickering -- .967
MacPherson -- .945
Beltre -- .866

Any opinions?
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Postby Pedantic » Tue Nov 23, 2004 12:37 pm

Well, besides the fact that James can't spell, I think his major league projections are based on previous seasons, so that explains Beltre's low OPS. And as to Pickering and McPherson, I think those are AAA numbers. O:-)
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Postby Pogotheostrich » Tue Nov 23, 2004 12:39 pm

Come on Erbos don't tell me you are going to start cherry picking projections now. :-D


If you haven't yet bought the 2005 Bill James Handbook, here are a few fascinating items. The first is his 2005 projections:


FREE AGENT 2005 PROJECTIONS

BA HR OPS
Beltre .287 34 .866
Beltran .285 31 .891
Cabrera .271 12 .729
Delgado .281 35 .955
Drew .291 26 .926
Garciaparra .313 20 .880
Glaus .254 39 .884
Koskie .270 20 .823
M. Ordonez .302 24 .902
Renteria .294 11 .765
Varitek .266 17 .792
Sexson .272 39 .894

YOUNG PLAYER 2005 PROJECTIONS
Kubel, Minn.* .317 17 .909
MacPherson, Ana .293 37 .945
Mauer, Minn .314 16 .867
Pickering, KC .277 34 .967
Wright, Mets .309 27 .929
Swisher, Oak .234 24 .792
Bay, Pitt .289 37 .923
Upton, TB .294 18 .842
Youkilis, Bos .271 6 .790
Morneau, Minn .280 32 .878
*Projection made before season-ending injury

PLAYERS PROJECTED TO EXCEED 1.000 OPS
Bonds .316 36 1.195
Pujols .343 43 1.092
Helton .340 33 1.062
Ramirez .320 39 1.030
Guerrero .330 37 1.000



http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/gammons/story?id=1922717

All of the projections for young players seem a little high to me.
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Postby Erboes » Tue Nov 23, 2004 12:42 pm

Since I am not familiar with how he does his projections, are you saying he does the three year average thing? If you could explain how he does it I would greatly appreciate it.

With Pickering and MacPherson, I believe those are MLE's and not their minor league numbers which, I think, just goes to show you how worthless they are.

Yes, I am cherry-picking. Great fun if you do it right. Those are, however, the ones that seem quite odd.
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Postby raiders_umpire » Tue Nov 23, 2004 12:53 pm

all the young players projections for 2005 seem high to me as well.... :-?
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Postby Mookie4ever » Tue Nov 23, 2004 1:25 pm

He is really down on FA and very high on the youngins.

Pogo - did you really spend $19.95 on that? :-b
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Postby Pogotheostrich » Tue Nov 23, 2004 1:31 pm

Mookie4ever wrote:Pogo - did you really spend $19.95 on that? :-b

http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/gammons/story?id=1922717

Can't say that I have ever bought a book or mag for fantasy baseball. It is much more fun to come up with my own rankings and all of last year's stats are online.
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Postby GotowarMissAgnes » Tue Nov 23, 2004 1:53 pm

Pedantic wrote:Well, besides the fact that James can't spell, I think his major league projections are based on previous seasons, so that explains Beltre's low OPS. And as to Pickering and McPherson, I think those are AAA numbers. O:-)


Erboes wrote:Since I am not familiar with how he does his projections, are you saying he does the three year average thing? If you could explain how he does it I would greatly appreciate it.

With Pickering and MacPherson, I believe those are MLE's and not their minor league numbers which, I think, just goes to show you how worthless they are.


I don't know of any projection system that is not based on previous seasons in some way! I also do not know of any projection system that does not give greater weight to more recent data and less weight to data in the more distant past. Those would seem to be pretty basic and common elements of a good projection system.

I don't know exactly what James uses these days.

Beltre seems reasonable to me. People put WAY too much weight on one season that is totally out of pattern with previous years. Suppose I just told you there was a guy that had three straight years of sub .730 OPS, who then had one year over 1.000. Why would you assume that he would duplicate last year?

Anybody remember Brady Anderson? I do, because I made a boatload of money predicting that he'd never hit more than 30 HRs again.

Much of Beltre's improvement last year was in batting average, which jumped a fluky 98 points, 44 points higher than his previous career high, and 60 point more than his current career average. BA jumps like that are usually not sustained. If his average jumps down to the 270-290 range, consistent with his major and minor league career, then his OBP falls to about 320-330. Fewer hits means fewer homers and doubles, and his slugging drops to 530-540 or right about what James predicts.

Pickering and McPherson are predictions of what they will do in the majors. I'm sure those are not MLEs, but are certainly based on MLEs (MLEs are translations of what players did in the past to their "Major League Equivalent", not predictions). And as study after study as showed predictions based on MLEs are just as accurate as predictions based on major league data.

BTW, compare Beltre to R. Hidalgo
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Postby Erboes » Tue Nov 23, 2004 2:10 pm

GotowarMissAgnes wrote:
Pedantic wrote:Well, besides the fact that James can't spell, I think his major league projections are based on previous seasons, so that explains Beltre's low OPS. And as to Pickering and McPherson, I think those are AAA numbers. O:-)


Erboes wrote:Since I am not familiar with how he does his projections, are you saying he does the three year average thing? If you could explain how he does it I would greatly appreciate it.

With Pickering and MacPherson, I believe those are MLE's and not their minor league numbers which, I think, just goes to show you how worthless they are.


I don't know of any projection system that is not based on previous seasons in some way! I also do not know of any projection system that does not give greater weight to more recent data and less weight to data in the more distant past. Those would seem to be pretty basic and common elements of a good projection system.
\
I don't know exactly what James uses these days.

Beltre seems reasonable to me. People put WAY too much weight on one season that is totally out of pattern with previous years. Suppose I just told you there was a guy that had three straight years of sub .730 OPS, who then had one year over 1.000. Why would you assume that he would duplicate last year?Anybody remember Brady Anderson? I do, because I made a boatload of money predicting that he'd never hit more than 30 HRs again.

Much of Beltre's improvement last year was in batting average, which jumped a fluky 98 points, 44 points higher than his previous career high, and 60 point more than his current career average. BA jumps like that are usually not sustained. If his average jumps down to the 270-290 range, consistent with his major and minor league career, then his OBP falls to about 320-330. Fewer hits means fewer homers and doubles, and his slugging drops to 530-540 or right about what James predicts.

Pickering and McPherson are predictions of what they will do in the majors. I'm sure those are not MLEs, but are certainly based on MLEs (MLEs are translations of what players did in the past to their "Major League Equivalent", not predictions). And as study after study as showed predictions based on MLEs are just as accurate as predictions based on major league data.

BTW, compare Beltre to R. Hidalgo


Agnes, don't you think that these two sentences contradict themselves just a tad?

And everytime you mention an Anderson or Hidalgo alls you are doing is citing the exceptions to the rule, and the rule is most players do not break out in their rookie seasons. In most cases, it takes them a few seasons to actually start producing up to their capabilities, and once they do they normally do not revert back to their struggling early seasons. Other than Pujols, that is the norm. Besides, what would you say if Beltre played in the minors until he cracked through last season at age 25 and put up those types of numbers?

So I guess you are backing James in saying that come draft day I should be taking Pickering and MacPherson ahead of this list of FA's since you say these MLE's are just as accurate as any other projection method? Looking at some of his projections I will have to say that you are right as long as you are using his projections in comparison.
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Postby Mookie4ever » Tue Nov 23, 2004 2:16 pm

Wow Agnes, comparing Beltre to Brady Anderson? Not a good comparison at all.

Beltre has always been considered a superstar-in-waiting. The guy started out in the majors when he was 19. He has had medical problems and a lot of pressure put on him - but last year when he was fully healthy he produced. There is no reason to expect his to regress. How many players out there are 5 year MLB vets at the age of 25 coming off of an MVP-type year? He is first round material for sure.
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