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Top 6 Starting Pitchers?

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Postby looptid » Mon Nov 22, 2004 5:01 am

TheYanks04 wrote:There is no way I rate Prior that high after what we saw in 2004. No way. There is no way Sheets gets above Schilling or Schmidt or a number of top pitchers on contending teams in my book either.


Maybe one area of conflict could be I listed my top six based on how I think they will preform next year, and not how market value will effect how long each pitcher will be available in a fantasy draft.

I know I'm going down a long & tired road, but playing for the Brewers has nothing to do with Ben Sheets ability to pitch. An important thing to keep in mind, I believe, when rating pitchers for fantasy baseball, is that win totals among the four statistics used for starting pitchers in 5x5 leagues (W, K, ERA, WHIP) are historically the most inconsistant. Strike-outs, ERA, and WHIP are all directly linked to a pitcher's ability. Wins are only partly dependent.
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Postby wkelly91 » Mon Nov 22, 2004 6:55 am

All the gloom about Prior reminds me of the talk of Randy Johnson last year. Many were saying that he was done at 40, that there was no cartalidge left in his knee, that he will never be close to his previous form, all were wrong. RJ was slipping into the 6th round of many drafts.

I think those who snag Prior will be happy come september ;-D
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Postby ukrneal » Mon Nov 22, 2004 7:26 am

I don't know my exact list yet, but I can say that Hudson wouldn't make my top 10. He has never had a season worthy of it, though he has been consistently good (which has its upside).
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Postby San D » Mon Nov 22, 2004 8:03 am

Sheets would tie with Santana for my number one if someone started a fantasy league that didn't count wins.
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Postby raiders_umpire » Mon Nov 22, 2004 8:23 am

for next year.....


1. santana
2. rj
3. schmidt
4. schilling
5. prior
6. oswalt
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Postby bmd » Mon Nov 22, 2004 8:59 am

Here's my top 6:

1. Santana
2. Prior
3. Johnson
4. Schilling
5. Schmidt
6. Oswalt
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Postby TheYanks04 » Mon Nov 22, 2004 5:21 pm

San D wrote:Sheets would tie with Santana for my number one if someone started a fantasy league that didn't count wins.


So? Almost all do. That is like saying Ichiro Suzuki would be the number one player if you did not count HRs and RBIs. Fact is that as long as Sheets is with the Brewers he will be lucky to get to 14 Ws and that is just not going to put him in the same class as the others being talked about. Everything has to break his way for Sheets to get lucky enough to get enough Ws to be considered in Fantasy's elite class.

I agree that Ws are a product of luck to an extent, but they are also a product of design. You get the Ws with contenders. You do not with bottom dwellers except in rare cases.
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Postby NZF » Mon Nov 22, 2004 6:39 pm

Wins should be the last criteria looked at when selecting and ranking starting pitchers. Sheets was pitching great in the first half, the Brewers were winning half there games but Sheets still only had an average win / loss ratio.

My top 6 are:

Prior
Johnson
Santana
Schilling
Sheets
Oswalt
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Postby Pedantic » Mon Nov 22, 2004 8:29 pm

TheYanks04 wrote:
San D wrote:Sheets would tie with Santana for my number one if someone started a fantasy league that didn't count wins.


So? Almost all do. That is like saying Ichiro Suzuki would be the number one player if you did not count HRs and RBIs. Fact is that as long as Sheets is with the Brewers he will be lucky to get to 14 Ws and that is just not going to put him in the same class as the others being talked about. Everything has to break his way for Sheets to get lucky enough to get enough Ws to be considered in Fantasy's elite class.

I agree that Ws are a product of luck to an extent, but they are also a product of design. You get the Ws with contenders. You do not with bottom dwellers except in rare cases.


Almost all do? Almost all pitchers have numbers like 260+ K's? Almost all pitchers have ERAs under 3.00? Almost all pitchers have WHIPs under 1.00? Uh, hello?

Sure Sheets will probably not get as many wins as Santana. But does that mean he should be dropped to "Good Fantasy Pitcher" status? I don't think so. Wins disregarded, there were only two pitchers better than Sheets last year, and those were RJ and Santana, and by a hair at that.

Your Ichiro analogy doesn't hold up. Home runs are at least partially dependent on player skill. Wins are also somewhat dependent upon player skill, but there are also other factors involved, such as the team's offense and bullpen. You can't say Sheets isn't one of the best pitchers in the majors just because he only had twelve wins and a losing record. You could say Ichiro isn't one of the best hitters because of his lack of power. With homeruns, it's not a relay race; you either put it over the fence or you don't. With wins, you have to rely on your team scoring enough runs for you to leave with the lead, and most of the time you have to count on the bullpen to not surrender that lead. If, for Ichiro's home runs to count, the next hitter had to hit a home run, then I would say your analogy is correct, but that isn't how it's done.

If I had a choice between Mark Buehrle and Ben Sheets, well, that would be the easiest decision I would ever make, despite the fact that Buehrle had more wins and will have a better offense behind him, because Sheets' other numbers are so good. The only time I think wins are useful when comparing pitchers is when you have a pitcher that can produce numbers close to Sheets' and has more potential for wins (e.g. Schmidt). Most pitchers have numbers that are dwarfed by Sheets', even if he only has twelve wins. I mean, Pavano had good numbers last year. How many would take him over Sheets, even though Sheets had six less wins and was "only" 0.30 better in ERA?
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Postby San D » Mon Nov 22, 2004 8:51 pm

TheYanks04 wrote:
San D wrote:Sheets would tie with Santana for my number one if someone started a fantasy league that didn't count wins.


So? Almost all do. That is like saying Ichiro Suzuki would be the number one player if you did not count HRs and RBIs. Fact is that as long as Sheets is with the Brewers he will be lucky to get to 14 Ws and that is just not going to put him in the same class as the others being talked about. Everything has to break his way for Sheets to get lucky enough to get enough Ws to be considered in Fantasy's elite class.

I agree that Ws are a product of luck to an extent, but they are also a product of design. You get the Ws with contenders. You do not with bottom dwellers except in rare cases.


This was my way of saying that I think Sheets is one of the two best pitchers in baseball. He just plays for a crappy team, but if he falls into some wins (which is possible), you may get baseball's best fantasy pitcher at a value price. You can read what you want into the wins thing.....just don't let that blind you.
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