Not even in the top 5?! Maybe I'm biased because I have Beltre as a keeper, but I can't see how he'll drop so far out of contention for the top HR spot that other players who Beltre beat by 10-15 homers (A-Rod, Tex, etc.) last year are gonna somehow make up all that difference next year.
I don't expect Beltre to be HR King again next year, but I don't see how there's a credible argument that its "wishful thinking" that he'll be in the top 5. Unless of course you think Beltre's 48 HRs was a fluke. That would be some fluke then, eh?