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Projection Questions - Need Advice

Postby rlee » Sat Nov 20, 2004 12:05 pm

I am about to plunge into making my own projections for next year. I have read with interest how many of you go about this, and the 50/33/17 rule makes a lot of sense.

BUT when making your previous 3 year calculations, how do you consider partial years due to injuries, call ups, etc.? For example, Nomar got only about 280 ABs this year, which obcviously will skew his 3 yr. numbers. David Wright was called up well into the season and only got about 325 ABs.

In that same vein, what about rookies like Zach Greinke? How do you project them?

I'd be interested to see how some of you "veteran projectors" factor these things in. You guys always help :-) Thanks in
advance ;-D
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Postby Amazinz » Sat Nov 20, 2004 12:25 pm

If you have a player who you feel will play a full year in the season coming up and that his shortened season was just a fluke then I will just extrapolate the stats out to 150 games or so. Sometimes I need to fudge them if the player was particularly cold or hot during the time he did play.

For someone like David Wright, who doesn't have an ML history, it won't work as well. For the younger players I rely heavily on fudging. :-)
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Postby rlee » Sat Nov 20, 2004 1:01 pm

Thanks, Amazinz ... you always seem to come to the aid. Much appreciated B-)

Your response was pretty much what I had in mind. I was going to use 550 ABs as my base. So with Nomar, I would almost double his numbers from last year. But, if I think someone like David Wright, is worth evaluating , I could do the same thing with him and at least get a fix on what he would do for 1 full year and then just use my judgement on his performance for next year from there.

Thanks, Again :-D
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Postby TheYanks04 » Sat Nov 20, 2004 1:42 pm

I have more or less come to the conclusion that projections are basically as accurate as Magic-8 balls and ouija boards. Total guess work and while 3 year histories and some statistical analysis can be a decent guide and help, they can not guarantee a thing and the projections of most sites/people still end up blowing when they are compared to actual results at year's end.

That said, since you need them for the draft or auction, you may as well take a reputable sites projections that you are 90+% comfortable with and use them as a starting point and tweak them to your liking. Why go through a complete execise like this yourself unless you will get paid for it or something? Like you would have project Soriano to hit only 28 hrs and steal less than 20...or that Arods Hrs would be down but SBs way up,...that Vaz was a waste of food. That Wood and Prior were also...etc?
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Postby Amazinz » Sat Nov 20, 2004 1:54 pm

TheYanks04 wrote:I have more or less come to the conclusion that projections are basically as accurate as Magic-8 balls and ouija boards. Total guess work and while 3 year histories and some statistical analysis can be a decent guide and help, they can not guarantee a thing and the projections of most sites/people still end up blowing when they are compared to actual results at year's end.

If you're making your projections to try and predict the upcoming season with any amount of accuracy you'll will probably fail or at least I will. But that's not the point. You're just trying to get a gauge that allows you to compare player value and that I can do. It doesn't have to be perfectly accurate to be successful and I got marginally closer than ESPN's rankings for 5x5.

TheYanks04 wrote:Why go through a complete execise like this yourself unless you will get paid for it or something?

Because we enjoy doing it. To each his own. ;-)

And another thing. When you build your projections from scratch, formulate your own draft strategy and then have a successful fantasy year there is a certain amount of pride and a feeling of accomplishment as opposed to just using someone's else rankings. Nerdy maybe but definitely fun.
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Postby TheYanks04 » Sat Nov 20, 2004 2:04 pm

Maybe so, but I can look at a rank list and set of projections from Rototimes or whatever reputable source and do the same. Your list and numbers will likely not differ from any reputable site in any major way. Unless you can somehow increase accuracy for the upcoming season oo something reasonable "in the ballpark" for the bulk of the players, it is unlikely to determine your leagues winner.

A gut feeling (good or bad) is more likely to. The guy that drafted Beltre in 2004 (or got him in the FA scrap heap) went a long way towards winning his league with that move. And I know no projection on him that was even remotely close. Same can be said for about a couple of dozen players good or bad like Boone, Sosa, Soriano, Wood, Prior, Vaz, Carpenter, Pavano etc. Blind luck, injuries, drafting and free agent wire work, solid trading are far far more valuable than projections in fantasy. Every experienced player has a decent set of projections or rank list going in.
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Postby Amazinz » Sat Nov 20, 2004 2:55 pm

They will differ in that it will be 100% my opinion and that's what counts. You're right I missed the boat on Beltre but I called Sosa and Soriano to a lesser degree. I also drafted Victor Martinez based on a hunch and my fudging in the final round of the draft and I didn't see RotoTimes call that although ESPN did.

Your gut feelings are the same as my projections the only difference is it's taking it one step further and putting it into #s. Like I said earlier to each his own. If you're happy with RotoTimes projections more power to you. I am not and think I can do better.
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