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OK, lets talk alittle about the Washington Nationals...

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Postby NZF » Mon Nov 22, 2004 9:00 pm

Vinny will stink the joint up next year. That much you are right about. But you are being too hard on Batista. Sure his avg. and OBP will be crap, as it is every year but so will Vinny's.

Batista finished in the Top 6 in 3 out of the main 5 hitting cats for all third basemen last season. He brings to the table just as much now as Vinny ever will. "Cash Steala" is no upgrade over Batista.
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Postby wrveres » Mon Nov 22, 2004 9:12 pm

GotowarMissAgnes wrote:Vinny can stink up the joint and STILL be better than Batista was last year.


I will agree with that .. ;-D
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Re: OK, lets talk alittle about the Washington Nationals...

Postby GotowarMissAgnes » Mon Nov 22, 2004 9:14 pm

wrveres wrote:
GotowarMissAgnes wrote:And why should I give a damn what their BAs are?
Wilkerson's OPS is .872



1. Wilkerson (LF) - Career .838 OPS - 2/1 K's to BB's
2. E. Chavez (CF) - Career .668 OPS - .303 OBP - 2/1 K's to BB
3. Vidro (2nd) - Career .837 OPS
4. Guillen (RF) - Career .764 OPS - 4/1 K's to BB's
5. Castilla (3rd) - Career .813 OPS INCLUDING Coors field
6. Johnson (1st) - Career .790 OPS
7. Guzman (SS) - Career .685 OPS - .303 OBP - 3/1 K's BB
8. Schneider (C) - Career .720 OPS

does that make them look more impressive?


I don't know about impressive, but it's at least more accurate. However, your choice to use career numbers still biases it down. Here's the average OPS for the last 3 years for these guys:
Wilkerson .853
Chavez .682
Vidro .854
Guillen .843
Castilla, outside of Coors, .738
Johnson .802
Guzman .682
Schneider .732 (.749 if they platoon against lefties).

Overall, that's an average team OPS of .773, which is just off the MLB average.

Take into account the right factors, and you see that this team may not be impressive, but they also aren't horrendous. They're a slightly below average team, which is mostly young, so they could improve. Couple that with a slightly below average pitching staff that is also young, and they'll not be nearly as bad as people think.
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Postby Niffoc4 » Mon Nov 22, 2004 9:32 pm

I apologize for not noticing the OPS difference from last year, but I still can't call Castilla a positive. The three seasons he has spent on teams outside of Houston and Colorado he has had one ok season (His 2003 season in Atl). In that time he averaged a .243 BA, .649 OPS, 13 HR, and yah he was hurt part of the time in Tampa, so heck, let's triple his HR total of that year (which was 6) and give him 18. That puts his HR avg all the way up to 17.3 HRs. How is that an improvementover Batista? Castilla is a product of hitter's ballparks, and unless RNC plays like Minute Maid or Coors, 3B will either be a black hole or Brendan Harris' before the All-Star Break. Batista, while no all-star himself, is at least consistent. He hits a ton of HR, and that's all. He doesn't take walks (neither does Castilla), he doesn't hit for avg, but I would still rather give him a raise than put Castilla out there... of course I would take Brendan Harris over both of 'em...
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Re: OK, lets talk alittle about the Washington Nationals...

Postby wrveres » Mon Nov 22, 2004 10:17 pm

GotowarMissAgnes wrote: Overall, that's an average team OPS of .773, which is just off the MLB average.


Their combined OPS is .773 for those 8 players, it is not their "team OPS", their team OPS would be much lower once the scrubs get their AB's too.

Montreal had a Team OPS of .705 last season, barely beating out a pathetic Arizona team for next to last in MLB "Team OPS". For some reason I do not see the addition of Guzman and Castilla as helping that a ton. Guillen might help sure, but first he is going to need to make contact, and do the little things like say, play a full season and keep his attitude in check.
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Re: OK, lets talk alittle about the Washington Nationals...

Postby GotowarMissAgnes » Mon Nov 22, 2004 10:46 pm

wrveres wrote:
GotowarMissAgnes wrote: Overall, that's an average team OPS of .773, which is just off the MLB average.


Their combined OPS is .773 for those 8 players, it is not their "team OPS", their team OPS would be much lower once the scrubs get their AB's too.

Montreal had a Team OPS of .705 last season, barely beating out a pathetic Arizona team for next to last in MLB "Team OPS". For some reason I do not see the addition of Guzman and Castilla as helping that a ton. Guillen might help sure, but first he is going to need to make contact, and do the little things like say, play a full season and keep his attitude in check.


As I said in my first post, a big issue will be what they do when Johnson gets hurt. If they play scrubs like Calloway, then I agree that will drag their OPS down, as it did last year. Look at that bench in 2004. On the other hand, two of the top twenty offensive players in the PCL last year were Church and Pascucci. If they play them, find a reasonably decent platoon partner for Schneider, and get a reasonable replacement level backup IF, then that bench can post a .700 OPS, rather than a .600, and the team OPS is more like .750 to .760 rather than .705
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Postby GotowarMissAgnes » Mon Nov 22, 2004 10:47 pm

Niffoc4 wrote:I apologize for not noticing the OPS difference from last year, but I still can't call Castilla a positive. The three seasons he has spent on teams outside of Houston and Colorado he has had one ok season (His 2003 season in Atl). In that time he averaged a .243 BA, .649 OPS, 13 HR, and yah he was hurt part of the time in Tampa, so heck, let's triple his HR total of that year (which was 6) and give him 18. That puts his HR avg all the way up to 17.3 HRs. How is that an improvementover Batista? Castilla is a product of hitter's ballparks, and unless RNC plays like Minute Maid or Coors, 3B will either be a black hole or Brendan Harris' before the All-Star Break. Batista, while no all-star himself, is at least consistent. He hits a ton of HR, and that's all. He doesn't take walks (neither does Castilla), he doesn't hit for avg, but I would still rather give him a raise than put Castilla out there... of course I would take Brendan Harris over both of 'em...
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Postby GotowarMissAgnes » Mon Nov 22, 2004 11:04 pm

Niffoc4 wrote:I apologize for not noticing the OPS difference from last year, but I still can't call Castilla a positive. The three seasons he has spent on teams outside of Houston and Colorado he has had one ok season (His 2003 season in Atl). In that time he averaged a .243 BA, .649 OPS, 13 HR, and yah he was hurt part of the time in Tampa, so heck, let's triple his HR total of that year (which was 6) and give him 18. That puts his HR avg all the way up to 17.3 HRs. How is that an improvementover Batista? Castilla is a product of hitter's ballparks, and unless RNC plays like Minute Maid or Coors, 3B will either be a black hole or Brendan Harris' before the All-Star Break. Batista, while no all-star himself, is at least consistent. He hits a ton of HR, and that's all. He doesn't take walks (neither does Castilla), he doesn't hit for avg, but I would still rather give him a raise than put Castilla out there... of course I would take Brendan Harris over both of 'em...


Let's try that again...I'm not saying Castilla's a positive, but he's better than Batista. Last year, Castilla had twuce as many walks as Batista. Batista is consistent....consistently bad. His ONLY skill is hitting dingers. Seriously, I can't see how you can call him consistent...his OPS for the last 4 seasons are: 715, 766, 663, 727.
Castilla's are: 775, 616, 771, 774(road only). And Batista is consistent?

Heck let's even jump to OPS+ so that we adjust for park differences:
Batista: 86, 102, 76, 88
Castiall: 94, 61, 101, 104

In three of the last four years, Castilla has outhit Batista. Using 5/.33/.17 and using road OPS for Castilla gives Vinny a predicted OPS of .747, while Batista is .713. Using the same calc for OPS+ gives Vinny 96 and Batista 86.

Even though Vinny's older and should decline faster, he should be as good or better than Batista was last year as well as next year.
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Postby Tavish » Mon Nov 22, 2004 11:46 pm

I'll avoid the offense arguement and say I don't see Washington winning 80 games because of the extremely weak pitching staff. The rotation is mediocre with really only one dependable starter, and the bullpen is a disaster waiting to happen. I would think 75 is an optomistic target win total.
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Postby LBJackal » Tue Nov 23, 2004 12:24 am

Anybody else see Ayala taking over the closer role before the AS break? He's so much better it seems like only a matter of time before it happens. Unfortunately he won't be dependable enough to draft thinking you'll get a fair amount of SV's.
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