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Postby Amazinz » Sun Dec 12, 2004 11:41 pm

I don't have an overall list done yet but I will put some thought to it and post it soon. I will add this, I meant to comment on it in my previous post, due to all the talent at 3B I don't think Arod is a slam-dunk 1-2-3 first round pick. At this point I think I would be comfortable drafting Tejada ahead of Arod for 5x5.
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Postby SaintsOfTheDiamond » Mon Dec 13, 2004 12:10 am

These are still in the early stages, so don't hold me to these (5x5):
Hitters:
Pujols -- No brainer
Beltran -- No brainer
Vlad -- No brainer
A-Rod -- No brainer for me even without SS
Helton -- No brainer
Tejada -- No brainer
Ramirez (Manny) -- No brainer
Soriano -- No brainer IMO just becuase of position, and I think he's much better than he showed in '04
Sheffield -- Age is a concern, but for NY, I'd take him
Abreu
Garciapara -- Provided he returns to his BOS form
Ortiz (David)
Teixeira -- No brainer IMO, he's younger, has a better lineup around him and the park helps a lot
Crawford
Cabrera -- If it was a keeper, and even if it wasn't he's come out of the gate stronger than Beltre, which in my mind pushes him ahead

Pitchers (I haven't done formal rankings for P's yet so these are off the top of my head):
Santana
Prior
RJ -- If it's not a keeper
Pedro
Schilling
And as much as I hate taking RP's in the first rounds I think Gange, and Rivera are more sure bets than Beltre

I actuctually have several more ahead of him, but I didn't want to list those because they are subject to change depending on where they end etc. There's 22 players I listed there which puts Beltre late second round in my book.
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Postby wrveres » Mon Dec 13, 2004 3:30 am

Erboes wrote: I don't understand your sarcasm, Wveres. At the end of the first round he is a bargain, at least in my opinion. I wouldn't take him there unless I had to, so if I could get him later I would let him pass. From the perspective of getting the best player available, I do think the end of the first round is where he should go. This is all in context of a mixed draft, of course.


Sarcasm .... ? ? ? who me. ;-7

I think Saints and Amazinz hit the nail on the head.
The depth of the position, and the fact that Beltre has been in the MLB for 7 seasons now, he has a career .274 BA (career .261 prior to last season) He has hit more than 23 homeruns only once, Scored more than 84 runs once, and had more than 85 RBIS once ..
All that considered, makes him an extremely shaky pick to be taking in the first round.
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Postby trevisc » Mon Dec 13, 2004 9:07 am

I've got him as a keeper. It takes someone special to be able to hit 23 homers out of dodger stadium in a season. He also hit 25 on the road which means he's had a pretty consistant year.

At 25 years old i'm willing to take a chance on him as my keeper.
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Postby Erboes » Mon Dec 13, 2004 11:07 am

Ortiz, Teixeira and Cabrera? Wow, you must really have a low opinion of Beltre. You do realize that Beltre beat the hell out of all three players in every fantasy stat (except RBI's with Ortiz) don't you? Even with slippage Beltre would have a long way to drop to reach the level of these three.

I will make this final point to you and Wrveres -- do you know what the major difference is between Beltre and Teixeira? Other than being one year apart in age, while Teixeira was hitting college pitchers with 80 MPH fastballs, Beltre was learning his craft in the major leagues. My point is, do you think Teixeira would have had success in the majors at 19? I highly doubt it. You are holding the fact that Beltre was rushed to the majors against him and I believe you are making a mistake. If the '03 season was his rookie year (age 24) and '04 was his breakout season (age 25) you guys would be falling all over yourself to get the guy and you know it. And don't think I don't like Teixeira either because I do. If you'll recall it was I last season who said you guys should forget Blalock and instead take Teixeira and Rotoguys has him with even better numbers this season. Still, Beltre beat the stuffing out of him hitting in LA and being only one year older. Could there be slippage? Sure, but he is not going to slip to '03 levels like you are implying. We'll see though. I would like to get you two in a league though. Too bad you guys aren't Rotoguy members so we could get you in the first ever Rotoguys Invitational.
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Postby Cornbread Maxwell » Mon Dec 13, 2004 11:20 am

Im pretty big on Beltre right now, but I can understand why people would think last yr was a fluke if they are simply looking at the stats alone. Honestly, I really hope mopre people look at his 2004 as a fluke - that should drive his price down and hopefully fall into the 2nd rd in many drafts. I know that Id be falling all over myself to draft Beltre in the 2nd - position scarcity be damned.
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Postby Secret Avatar » Mon Dec 13, 2004 1:49 pm

Good point on Beltre being rushed into MLB. It's actually not true that he was always disappointing. Quite the contrary, when he broke into the league at 19 he put up better numbers than stars like A-Rod did at that age. He was actually able to hit big-league pitchers his first time out. That's very rare. He then improved over the next 3 years. From 1998 (age 19) to 2000 (age 21) he went from a 215 BA to 290 and from 7 HRs to 20. ;-D

Then he fell into a hole. He was impatient at the plate and, especially, was a sucker for chasing balls outside. In 2004, he tighened up his swing and was more patient at the plate. Obviously, his BA and HR skyrocketed, but look closer at the other numbers. Walks went up from 37 to 53. Ks went down from 103 to 87. Those are big differences that suggest a more patient hitter.

While I don't expect Beltre to repeat his incredible numbers from 2004 -- how many players ever hit 334 with a league-leading HR total? -- I believe he will do very well indeed. ;-D
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Postby SaintsOfTheDiamond » Mon Dec 13, 2004 3:11 pm

If you want to use the rush to the majors arguement explain why it took him six years to figure out how to hit again. He didn't exactly show me much during those years to make me think this wans't a fluke. You can say it's becuase he was rushed to the majors or whatever, I just think that '04 was an anomoly and won't be repeated. I could be completely wrong on this one, but I would still definitely rather have Tex, Ortiz, or Cabrera over Beltre in any league, especially a keeper. I'm not saying he's going to revert back to 80/20/85/.280 type numbers, all I'm saying is that there are better -- surer -- options IMO for the first round and a half than Beltre. That's been my argument the entire time. I don't like to take risky picks in the first two+ rounds depending on the size of the league, and I still see Beltre as one of those. Now if he can put up good numbers again next year then I will start to maybe consider him a sure bet, but until I do I'll let someone else take the risk early in the draft.
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Postby Erboes » Mon Dec 13, 2004 3:25 pm

You have to excuse the scratching of my head here, but what makes you think Ortiz, Cabrera, and Teixeira are safer bets? Ortiz, one good season and one good one platoon season. Cabrera, one good season while previously he was an OK rookie. Teixeira, one good season while previously he was an average rookie. In short, you are willing to bet that these three players who have really one good season each is a safer bet than Beltre, who has one good season. Plus, their one good seasons do not come close to Beltre's really, really, really, good season. In short, you are being arbitrary in your judgements. Your reasoning is simple and more than likely wrong. You have it in your mind that Beltre is a bust so you will overlook the same things you damn him with with other players such as Teixeira, Ortiz, and Cabrera. I know what you are going to say, and that is Beltre failed previously, but so what? So did countless other 24 year olds. You do what you want, but your logic is really screwy.

I just remembered something with Beltre. Wasn't it discovered that he was actually two years younger than his listed age a couple of seasons ago? In other words, wasn't he supposed to be 21 his rookie season instead of 19 that he really was? Then, doesn't this mean he was like playing rookie ball at 15 or something? Then his last season in double or triple A he was really only 18? Refresh my memory, friends.
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Postby SaintsOfTheDiamond » Mon Dec 13, 2004 4:03 pm

In short yes, I think Cabrera and Tex have given just as much reason to think they are the real deal as Beltre has. I guess I look at it like this:

If Beltre was really that good he would have shown a little more than he did in his first 5 years. If he is really this good, why did it take him so long to realize this potential? These other guys (excluding Ortiz) showed a lot more in their first full year in the majors than Beltre had in any of his previous five seasons in the majors.

This is what I'm basing my opinon on so you can take it and work it over too:
R/HR/RBI/AVG/OBP
Cabrera -- I'm calling his first full year 2004 at age 20 and his numbers:
2004: 101/33/112/.294/.366
If you take his rookie numbers for 162 games you get roughly:
2003: 78/24/114/.270/.347
Two very solid seasons if you ask me

Teixeira -- I'm calling his first full year 2003
2003: 66/26/84/.259/.331
His second full year in the majors:
2004: 101/38/112/.281/.370
Not as good as Cabrera, but still very solid IMO.

Those are much better IMO than any of the years that Beltre put up 1999-2003. Just looking at the numbers I think both of those players are going to be much better than Beltre. I know that he could be a "late bloomer" or whatever the cliche is, but if he was really as good as either of those two why didn't he show it sometime from 1999-2003?

Lastly, I'm not saying that either of those guys are first round material, I'm not sure if you took my original reply that way or not. I just said that I'd rather have them than Beltre, that's all.
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