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Postby ensanimal » Sun Dec 12, 2004 4:55 pm

newest news...


Adrian Beltre - 3B - LA


The Mariners' offer for Adrian Beltre is worth $62 million over five years, the Tacoma News Tribune reports.
Beltre reportedly wants a seven-year, $90 million contract. Both the Dodgers and Mariners seem to be growing increasingly frustrated with agent Scott Boras, who has little interest in getting a deal done anytime soon. Dec. 12 - 2:58 pm et
Source: Tacoma News Tribune
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Postby LBJackal » Sun Dec 12, 2004 6:00 pm

Pogotheostrich wrote:
Pedantic wrote:Only one of the eligible players isn't in the Hall. Beltre's OPS is on the low end of the list, but even if he's the next Juan Gone, that isn't too bad.
Neither Trotsky, Allen, or Colavito are in the HOF. ;-)


Leon Trotsky played baseball? :-D

The name Trosky must have triggered Leon's name in your head, which could only mean one thing..... you're a communist!
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Postby Erboes » Sun Dec 12, 2004 10:21 pm

LBJackal wrote:
Pogotheostrich wrote:
Pedantic wrote:Only one of the eligible players isn't in the Hall. Beltre's OPS is on the low end of the list, but even if he's the next Juan Gone, that isn't too bad.
Neither Trotsky, Allen, or Colavito are in the HOF. ;-)


Leon Trotsky played baseball? :-D

The name Trosky must have triggered Leon's name in your head, which could only mean one thing..... you're a communist!


Leon Trotsky played baseball for Mexico City. Little known fact.

I don't understand your sarcasm, Wveres. At the end of the first round he is a bargain, at least in my opinion. I wouldn't take him there unless I had to, so if I could get him later I would let him pass. From the perspective of getting the best player available, I do think the end of the first round is where he should go. This is all in context of a mixed draft, of course.
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Postby SaintsOfTheDiamond » Sun Dec 12, 2004 10:30 pm

I know I'm not as high on him as most people, but I don't see him being worth a first round pick under an circumstances. 3B is so deep that better options could be had later in the draft. After he gets hig big payday, I'm expecting a big fall off. Maybe that's unfounded, but I won't be taking him unless he falls really far, which I know he won't. :-?
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Postby Erboes » Sun Dec 12, 2004 10:57 pm

Let's look at this logically -- by available players. I'd take these players ahead of Beltre:

Pujols
Beltran
Guerrero
Helton

I'd probably take these players ahead of Beltre:

Santana
Prior

Which leaves this group of players I would have to decide upon along with Beltre:

R. Johnson
Bonds
Abreu
Ramirez
Sheffield
Tejada
A-Rod
Soriano

For me, this would be a tough call. Anyone here can make an argument for any of these players and I could agree with many of their points. The thing is, even if you put Beltran last on this list, that would make him the third player taken in the second. What other players could you put ahead of Beltre? Rolen? Thome? Susuki? Crawford would be the only other player I would consider ahead of him, but this is only using a quick scan. I am sure I am forgetting some players though.
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Postby Amazinz » Sun Dec 12, 2004 11:02 pm

The overload of talent at 3B knocks Beltre out of the first round IMO. In a 12-team or smaller league everyone is going to have good production at the position. So I would definitely prefer to target something else in round one.
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Postby Erboes » Sun Dec 12, 2004 11:04 pm

Amazinz wrote:The overload of talent at 3B knocks Beltre out of the first round IMO. In a 12-team or smaller league everyone is going to have good production at the position. So I would definitely prefer to target something else in round one.


But yet you would have no problem taking A-Rod, probably close to the top of the first, no?
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Postby SaintsOfTheDiamond » Sun Dec 12, 2004 11:14 pm

Erboes wrote:
Amazinz wrote:The overload of talent at 3B knocks Beltre out of the first round IMO. In a 12-team or smaller league everyone is going to have good production at the position. So I would definitely prefer to target something else in round one.


But yet you would have no problem taking A-Rod, probably close to the top of the first, no?


I would definitely take A-Rod much higher than Beltre just because he's been a top 3 player for the last how many years? I won't take A-Rod nearly as high as I would have if he was still a SS, but he has been doing it much longer than Beltre. If I'm going to take a chance on a guy like Beltre I would much rather it be at at shallower position, but that's just my philosophy. I won't argue with you if you think he's first round material, I just think that there are much better options at such a relatively deep position and taking a risk that early in the draft is just something I don't want to do. I think part of the differences we have on this one is that I still see him as a risky pick, and you apparently don't. I just don't see anything that makes me think he will maintain a level close to that of '04 [which is the only way he is a first round pick IMO], but again, that's just my opinion and the conclusion I've drawn looking at his career numbers, albeit using my I'm sure crude methods.
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Postby Amazinz » Sun Dec 12, 2004 11:18 pm

Erboes wrote:
Amazinz wrote:The overload of talent at 3B knocks Beltre out of the first round IMO. In a 12-team or smaller league everyone is going to have good production at the position. So I would definitely prefer to target something else in round one.


But yet you would have no problem taking A-Rod, probably close to the top of the first, no?

Yes, for a several reasons. One, stolen bases. This doesn't apply in H2H but the difference in steals is enough for a serious value shift. I know Arod is unlikely to match last year's total but I don't think 20 is unreasonable. Beltre may be able to match Arod's BA and HR totals but I'll put my stock in Arod's ability to reproduce them over Beltre's. Finally (this depends on where Beltre ends up), due to the Yankees lineup I like Arod's chances to reproduce or exceed his team-based stats (R, RBI). Beltre's R and RBI have a very good chance of falling sharply.
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Postby Erboes » Sun Dec 12, 2004 11:25 pm

That's fair enough with Beltre. Why don't you give us a list of players you would take ahead of Beltre? It's a lot harder when you actually got to place players ahead of him.

I do suggest that you look at A-Rod's home/road splits from his seasons in Texas. I have him around here someplace but it's buried in piles of papers, but they are damn close to what he did in NY last season. My point is, what you see from A-Rod is what you are likely to get, and if you discount his SB's back to the norms (which I strongly suggest you should), you got a middle of the pack 3b. Sure, he's safe, but even with those SB's Beltre spanked the crap out of A-Rod last season.
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