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Adrian Beltre

Postby Pirate of the Carib » Sat Nov 20, 2004 12:19 am

Do you think he had a fluke last year or is he the real deal?
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Postby so0perspam » Sat Nov 20, 2004 12:47 am

Definitely not a Loaiza fluke, but 3B is really deep so don't draft him high. Wait and get a Mora-type. ;-D
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Postby Amazinz » Sat Nov 20, 2004 1:16 am

I think Beltre was just coming into his own and although people like to dismiss contract years I believe it played a part. Like Soop said 3B is incredibly deep so I won't risk too much banking on him repeating last years numbers. Maybe .290/35 HR depending on where he ends up.
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Postby Tony Clark is my son » Sat Nov 20, 2004 1:19 am

Beltre will go in the first two rounds, undeserved, just as Loaiza did this year. Let him be. If you want a great 3B, get someone that has been good for more than one year like A-Rod or Rolen.

Beltre probably won't go back to 23 HR, .259 avg, but he will definately not match this year's numbers. My guess is: Expect .290ish with between 30 and 40 HR.

But the one thing you can count on is defense. Beltre has always been a great defender, and that you can count on ;-)
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Postby Tony Clark is my son » Sat Nov 20, 2004 1:20 am

Beltre will go in the first two rounds, undeserved, just as Loaiza did this year. Let him be. If you want a great 3B, get someone that has been good for more than one year like A-Rod or Rolen.

Beltre probably won't go back to 23 HR, .259 avg, but he will definately not match this year's numbers. My guess is: Expect .290ish with between 30 and 40 HR.

But the one thing you can count on is defense. Beltre has always been a great defender, and that you can count on ;-)
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Postby LBJackal » Sat Nov 20, 2004 1:28 am

There are so many great 3B's out there that taking Beltre in the first round, or even as your 2nd pick, doens't seeem like a wise decision to me. Sure he might have found his stroke, but why take a risk? There are tons of other 3B's out there who will put up great numbers: Chavez, Rolen, Lowell, Huff, Mora, A-Rod, Aramis, Blalock, Chipper, Figgins, Koskie, Blake, and the list goes on. I can't see myself taking any 3B other than A-Rod with one of my first 2 picks.

The first tier, consisting of A-Rod, should obviously go in the first round. The second tier has like 8 guys in it though.
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Postby SaintsOfTheDiamond » Sat Nov 20, 2004 2:13 am

Taking any 3B in the first round, maybe two rounds in shallow leagues is a bad move IMO, Beltre especially. I don't think anyone can expect his '04 numbers again, but he's not as bad as he was before last years breakout. I'm not as high on him as some (by quite a bit) because he's too much of a risk at a relatively deep position.
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Postby eftda » Sat Nov 20, 2004 3:32 am

Chipper and Figgins will be the 'sleepers' for 3rd base. THey could go as late as round 10*


*in a 12 team league.
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Postby Erboes » Sat Nov 20, 2004 8:59 am

He's no fluke, that much I know. And since I am not a firm believer in the contract year theory, you can mark me down as one of the few who thinks he may actually get better next season for the following reasons:

1) His incredible second half numbers. When players get hot like Beltre did in the first half, pitchers tend to pitcher them differently. If that happened, it did not effect him in the second half. In fact, everything took a big leap in the second half, including his selectivity.

2) Better ballpark if he leaves LA.

3) A better lineup if he leaves LA. I am not a big believer in lineup protection, but having guys on base in front of him and knocking him in behind him would raise his value. For how well he hit last season, his runs and RBI's were not up to snuff.

4) Age. Not too many hitters have their peak seasons at age 25. He has a few more of them in him.

5) Health. He played most of the season with bone chips in his ankle. Maybe with a pain free ankle he will steal a couple of more bases.

I know I am in the minority with him, but there are probably only 5 hitters in all of baseball that can approach his type of value. People would have no problem selecting A-Rod in the first, and maybe still first overall, and he's a 3b, so why the hesitation with Beltre? It is my experience that there are not too many hitters who rise from mediocrity to these types of numbers and quickly return to prior levels. Nor is it my experience that hitters peak at 25, although I am sure it happened. I believe if you pass on Beltre you should pass on A-Rod too, especially since Beltre has a higher probability of being better next season.
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Postby Amazinz » Sat Nov 20, 2004 12:12 pm

It's not that odd to see a player peak at 25. I did a study earlier in the year. I used the Lahman database and pull every player who had substantial playing time from the '60s through today. The average peak age is ~27.5 and quite a few over the last 40 years have peaked at 25.

I don't believe in the contract year theory as a whole but I do think it's a valid concern in individual cases, this being one of them. Prior to last year Beltre's work ethics were always being brought into question.

The other points you bring up are good and there's no question that Beltre could have another great year especially with the possibility of a better hitter's park, better lineup, etc.

What I don't understand is why you would question someone selecting Arod but not Beltre. Beltre has only one year of production at this level so any way you slice it he's a gamble whereas Arod has produced year in and year out.

Drafting in the first round is not only about production it's also about consistency. If you grab Beltre in the first round and he reverts to '03 form... :-o
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