SB Threats?

[Bukoski77]

Isnt Jeremy Reed with Toronto or did he get traded?

He was never with the Toronto organization. He was drafted by the ChiSox and traded to Seattle. Maybe you are thinking of Reed Johnson???

Thanks man. Thats who I was thinking of.

[eftda]

Keep your eyes on Garthwright and upton. The D-rays are known to run even if they are losing

[looptid]

[Roberts] is also on the Red Sox, who are in the same catagory as the A's: the Bill James persuasion.

I wouldn't assume, if given playing time in the Red Sox organization, that Roberts will be restrained on the basepaths. Roberts is a career 81% base-stealer. If you run the probabilities, stealing bases at that rate increases a team's chances of scoring runs.

I would think teams like the Athletics and Red Sox avoid using the stolen base as a tool of pure strategy or to "get something going" to conserve outs. That should decrease the number of attempts from average base stealers in Boston and Oakland. But statistical analysis on scoring probabilities support the decision to let someone with a sucess rate of 81% attempt to steal bases.

This all seems like a moot point, however, as baring an injury, Roberts is only going to see spot duty.

[DominicanLou]

Gathright in Tampa and Freddy Sanchez in San Diego are probably the two biggest sleepers.

[rlee]

Don't forget A-Rod. While his power numbers were down last
year , his SB numbers went back up. I think he is one of the guys that flies under the radar screen for this category.

[SaintsOfTheDiamond]

Don't forget A-Rod. While his power numbers were down last
year , his SB numbers went back up. I think he is one of the guys that flies under the radar screen for this category.

But he's also gone in the first round too. I thought he was looking for sleeper picks later in the draft, unless I misunderstood.

[killercars]

i'm also a fan of getting power guys who can steal but aren't known for it... a couple this coming year may be...

lew ford/aaron rowand

also love upton

mike

[Tony Clark is my son]

Remember, when looking for stolen bases, avoid the Red Sox, A's, and Blue Jays. None of them guys steal, even if they're capable of it.

Which brings me to one of my surprises in '04. I thought Miguel Tejada would steal more than 4 bases, as he stole 28 in the previously three years with the OAKLAND A'S

[DK]

Remember, when looking for stolen bases, avoid the Red Sox, A's, and Blue Jays. None of them guys steal, even if they're capable of it.

Which brings me to one of my surprises in '04. I thought Miguel Tejada would steal more than 4 bases, as he stole 28 in the previously three years with the OAKLAND A'S

Well, that's because his success rate was outstanding. I suspected the same thing, but maybe it's because he was the #3 hitter. Baltimore only wants a certain section of their players to run, and the 150-RBI guy isn't the runner.

If the SB% rate is over 73%, they let them go. Rickey was one of the best of all time, and he had an 80.7% success rate. You've got to be smart with your running, though. You can't go wildly. Beltran would still get 30 SB's on the A's because his SB% is insane. Even Billy'd let him run.

[stumpak]

I like Juan Rivera for some unexpected SB production now that he is playing in Anaheim. Soscia likes to run, and anyone with half a lick of speed will get the greenlight enough to pick up 15 SBs. Not going to give you a huge boost, but considering that he can perform much better than the typical base stealer-type in other categories, 15+ SBs when you were expecting 5 is not such a bad shot in the arm.