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Guillermo Mota

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Postby DK » Sun Nov 21, 2004 2:19 pm

eftda wrote:na its cool...

but ya. IMO, the long ball sucks. I love small ball. single... steal... bunt... sac fly.... works all the time if the number one hitter gets on ;-D


Not to hijack the thread, but you'd be surprised how little it actually does work. First, the #1 guy actually has to get on, which happens about 35% of the time. Then, the guy on first has to actually steal successfully, which will happen about 60% of the time. Then, the sac bunt to move him over to third has to go down successfully, which happens about 75% of the time. Fourth, the last hitter has to hit a deep enough fly ball to center-right, which will happen about 15% of the time. If he Simple math tells us that the chance of all that working out is roughly 2%, or twice every nine games.

On a home run, at least one run scores 100% of the time, so I'd rather have one of those than sacrifice the outs.

But I digress...

I don't know enough about Mota's stats, but I do know that Dotel gave up too many HR's last year in Oakland. He'll probably revert to form in 2005.
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Postby eftda » Sun Nov 21, 2004 2:24 pm

THe best time for thatone play is int he first inning. You have two types of #1 hitters. A guy who will swing away or a guy who will take pitches. If he gets on base then its a good chance he will score. If he isn't fast, then sac bunt him to 2nd. Tht was the #3, 4 hitters have a RISP... how about that one. In baseball, you can fail 70% of the time and still be an all-star ;-D
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