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Postby dleoboyd » Sun Nov 28, 2004 2:10 am

Baseballer02 wrote:Why is it noone likes Hernandez, he was top 10 among catchers in HRs and RBIs with only around 380 ABs, and was also top 10 in AVG., SLG., and OPS I believe.



I was just looking through these lists and wondering the same thing....I noticed one list that did have him ranked #7 (or right around there) which is right where I like him. In 100 less at bats his power numbers were pretty similar and he improved his K/BB ratio, along with his SLG%, OBP, and OPS.

Here are my top 15:


1 Ivan Rodriguez
2 Jorge Posada
3 Javy Lopez
4 Victor Martinez
5 Mike Piazza
6 Jason Varitek
7 Ramon Hernandez
8 Jason Kendall
9 Joe Mauer
10 Jonny Estrada
11 Michael Barrett
12 Mike Lieberthal
13 Paul Lo Duca
14 Brandon Inge
15 A.J. Pierzynski
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Postby dleoboyd » Sun Nov 28, 2004 2:18 am

As for a projection for Hernandez, if he can stay healthy and everything goes right, I think that he could end up hitting .280+/.350/.500, with 25 HR power.....It's difficult to project more team oriented numbers like RBIs and Runs right now, but I think that 80 Runs and 85 RBIs are well with in the realm of possibility.
We are what we repeatedly do. Excellence then, is not an act, but a habit.

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Postby Amazinz » Sun Nov 28, 2004 3:21 am

OK I don't see Hernandez producing like that this year. I'm sure this will change but right now I'm looking at:

BA .270 HR 20 R 60 RBI 75
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Postby Baseballer02 » Sun Nov 28, 2004 3:29 am

.280 and 25 HRs could be a possibility, but R's and RBI's will be pretty low hitting in the bottom of the lineup.
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Postby Tavish » Sun Nov 28, 2004 3:37 am

Amazinz wrote:OK I don't see Hernandez producing like that this year. I'm sure this will change but right now I'm looking at:

BA .270 HR 20 R 60 RBI 75


Thats more like what I'm expecting. I think he might come close to 25 HR, but I'm not quite ready to project a career year across the board for Hernandez.
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Postby kentx12 » Sun Nov 28, 2004 10:26 am

Tony Clark is my son wrote:1) Ivan Rodriguez
2) Victor Martinez
3) Jorge Posada
4) Javy Lopez
5) Jason Varitek
6) Jason Kendall
7) Paul Lo Duca
8) Mike Piazza
9) Mike Lieberthal
10) Michael Barrett
11) Ramon Hernandez
12) Joe Mauer
13) Gerald Laird
14) Damian Miller
15) Mike Matheny
16) Miguel Olivo
17) Toby Hall
18) Jason LaRue
19) Bengie Moline
20) Charles Johnson



Where is Estrada??
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Postby dleoboyd » Sun Nov 28, 2004 12:51 pm

Amazinz wrote:OK I don't see Hernandez producing like that this year. I'm sure this will change but right now I'm looking at:

BA .270 HR 20 R 60 RBI 75



So you're basically saying that he is going to do pretty much the same thing he has done over the last two years.....That's fine, but I prefer to look at the trends when making my projections. As I said in my previous post, I won't project with any certainty runs or rbis, because we don't know what the lineup will look like. I believe someone said that it would be hard for Hernandez to put up the runs and rbis totals that I projected, hitting at the bottom of the lineup. I completely agree. You'll notice that I prefaced my projections by saying "if he can stay healthy and everything goes right." Everything going right would include a better spot in the batting order than 7th (which is where I think he was most of last year, correct me if I'm wrong).

The reasons I've projected an increase across the board in Hernandez' numbers is because of the signs. The 23 doubles and 18 HR, in 384 AB is actually an increase in power over any of his previous seasons. He significantly improved his k/bb ratio last season, indicating increased patience at the plate, which I believe will translate into a better BA next season. He has also improved his BA, OBP, SLG%, and OPS in each of the last 3 seasons, I see no reason for that trend to stop next year.

All the signs are pointing up for Hernandez and my projections are following accordingly.
We are what we repeatedly do. Excellence then, is not an act, but a habit.

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Postby SaintsOfTheDiamond » Sun Nov 28, 2004 10:12 pm

Little late, just thought I'd post mine:

Rodriguez
Martinez
Posada
Lopez
Varitek

Kendall
Estrada
Piazza
Lo Duca
Hernandez

Lieberthal
Pierzynski
Barrett
Molina - ANA
Barajas

LaRue
Hall
Miller
Schneider
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Postby Amazinz » Sun Nov 28, 2004 10:55 pm

dleoboyd wrote:So you're basically saying that he is going to do pretty much the same thing he has done over the last two years.....That's fine, but I prefer to look at the trends when making my projections.

We have six seasons to look at. You're making a projection that is above his career average and, more importantly, above what he has produced over the last three years. Your projection is basically assuming that we'll witness the same inrease in production from 04-05 (which is not a trend IMO because the rate of increase dropped from the previous year) that we did in 03-04. Maybe that will be correct but at this point I don't agree that we'll see the same development next year.

dleoboyd wrote:Everything going right would include a better spot in the batting order than 7th (which is where I think he was most of last year, correct me if I'm wrong).

At this point (and it's still too early) nothing has changed in SD to suggest that he won't be batting at the bottom of the order and that the Padres offense will be substantially more productive than it was last year. I'd rather base my projections on a middle ground between everything going right and everything going wrong. :-)

dleoboyd wrote:The reasons I've projected an increase across the board in Hernandez' numbers is because of the signs. The 23 doubles and 18 HR, in 384 AB is actually an increase in power over any of his previous seasons.

Absolutely. His production increased last year but I am not willing to assume you'll see the same rate of increase next year. Look at his production increase from 02-03. If you had banked on a repeat your projections would have been way off the mark.
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Postby Pedantic » Sun Nov 28, 2004 10:58 pm

dleoboyd wrote:
Amazinz wrote:OK I don't see Hernandez producing like that this year. I'm sure this will change but right now I'm looking at:

BA .270 HR 20 R 60 RBI 75



So you're basically saying that he is going to do pretty much the same thing he has done over the last two years.....That's fine, but I prefer to look at the trends when making my projections. As I said in my previous post, I won't project with any certainty runs or rbis, because we don't know what the lineup will look like. I believe someone said that it would be hard for Hernandez to put up the runs and rbis totals that I projected, hitting at the bottom of the lineup. I completely agree. You'll notice that I prefaced my projections by saying "if he can stay healthy and everything goes right." Everything going right would include a better spot in the batting order than 7th (which is where I think he was most of last year, correct me if I'm wrong).

The reasons I've projected an increase across the board in Hernandez' numbers is because of the signs. The 23 doubles and 18 HR, in 384 AB is actually an increase in power over any of his previous seasons. He significantly improved his k/bb ratio last season, indicating increased patience at the plate, which I believe will translate into a better BA next season. He has also improved his BA, OBP, SLG%, and OPS in each of the last 3 seasons, I see no reason for that trend to stop next year.

All the signs are pointing up for Hernandez and my projections are following accordingly.


I wouldn't project numbers like that until we see a full season like that or approaching that. He is a catcher after all, and though he might have been injured, it still saved him from some of the wear and tear of everyday catching in 2004.
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