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Postby Mookie4ever » Tue Nov 16, 2004 3:45 pm

stumpak wrote:To be first round pick, Beltre would almost have to mirror last season to prvide the requisite value. Like I said, the kid has talent and could easily perform within 10% of last season on a consistent basis, but -10% of last season is the difference between 1st round and say a 3rd round value. I am not saying he is not going to have strong fantasy value moving forward, but I would bet a lot of money that last year was a career year and that he will not produce at 1st round levels 4 out of 5 years moving forward. Add to this the fact that he has never displayed a good attitude or put in much effort independent of his contract being up or the Dodgers threatening to bench him. There is just not a good case to take him in the first round.


He is only 25. How many bad years has he had (when he hasn't had an appendectomy)?

He right around Helton for value, slightly ahead in a keeper and even further ahead in a dynasty.
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Postby wkelly91 » Tue Nov 16, 2004 8:13 pm

Beltre 3rd to 5th round 8-o

Name 36-60 players better :-?

I say he drops to high 2nd at worst ;-)
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Postby Tavish » Tue Nov 16, 2004 8:20 pm

stumpak wrote:To be first round pick, Beltre would almost have to mirror last season to prvide the requisite value. Like I said, the kid has talent and could easily perform within 10% of last season on a consistent basis, but -10% of last season is the difference between 1st round and say a 3rd round value. I am not saying he is not going to have strong fantasy value moving forward, but I would bet a lot of money that last year was a career year and that he will not produce at 1st round levels 4 out of 5 years moving forward. Add to this the fact that he has never displayed a good attitude or put in much effort independent of his contract being up or the Dodgers threatening to bench him. There is just not a good case to take him in the first round.


-10% of last year's production and Beltre is a a very solid first round pick. If he duplicates what he did last season (I'm still up in the air until I find out where he lands, hopefully he will get out of the LA offensive sinkhole) we would be talking top 5 pick in 2006. Right now, I would probably put him slightly behind Helton in the mid to late 1st.
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Postby Bloody Nipples » Tue Nov 16, 2004 9:02 pm

Wow. The last time I checked this thread (yesterday) it had 6 replies! ;-)

I think we should return to the topic I came up with and maybe make a new thread for the Beltre stuff.
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Postby Bukoski77 » Wed Nov 17, 2004 4:53 am

Well, you guys have a great and spirited debate going ;-D .

In keeping with the theme of the original post, here are some midround guys that come to mind for me that could be steals.

SP Joel Pineiro - I think I'm the first to mention him on this thread. He will probably be hard pressed to top 12-13 wins but I look for his 2005 stats to return to his 2003/2002 form.

SP C.C. Sabithia - At worst last year was what you get which isnt a bad 3rd fantasy pitcher. Has the ability to throw a good bit more K's.

SP K. Brown - He hits like a girl (too easy I know...... :-D ) but injury prone as he is, I might still gamble on him late 10th round or later.

SP K. Wells - After the 18th round maybe.

2B T. Womack - As long as he stays at the top of that lineup why cant he keep a respectable AVE and help out in Runs and Steals? Top them? Not a chance, But I'll take a shot at those numbers after the 12th to 14th round depending on my draft so far.

1B/OF Daryl Ward - Showed some flashes last year, I'll gamble on him real late 19th round or later.

C C. Wilson - Lost his catcher eligibility in most leagues but last years .264 AVE 29HR 82RBI 97R isnt too bad at all for a 1B after the 12th round. His career stats give no reason he wont duplicate it getting 500+ at bats again.

OF Jose Guillen - Round drafted depends largely on if he resigns with the Angel's or who he signs with. I wont argue with those numbers after 2 years in a row now if he signs on with a team offering solid lineup protection. Solid 10th - 12th round pick.

2B - Todd Walker - Grudzielanek filed for FA as the team declined his 2.5 million option. Depending on who is out there 11th - 12th round is solid. Probably not a steal until the 13th or later as I expect almost every fantasy site out there to naturaly pick up on and plug him.

SP Mike Mussina - Does last year decrease his value that much? I'm not sure and he is a very solid pick in the 8th round.

C M. Barrett - His bat fell off slightly in the 2nd half last year, but not as bad a drop off as prior years. 15th round or later might be a good pick for C.

OF S. Finley - Has been overlooked for about 3 years running now. I wont forget about him now until he is carted off the field or retires. Not a dependable starter but a great reserve to throw into your line up when he is hot. If he is there in the 18th or later and you think you have drafted an all around solid team, he is a great one to pick up to wait out April and then throw him in there during his hot spells. A very streaky hitter but when he is on, he is just on.

SS O. Cabrera - I'd take him in the 8th-9th round if he resigns with the Red Sox. His numbers improved vastly after comeing over (who's wouldnt with the Sox?).

SP A. Eaton - How much better I dont know. I expect some improvement from him though. Decent 5th starter maybe a 4th starter depending on his improvement. I'd gamble on him around the 20th round.

SS/2B/3B/OF Chone Figgins - His bat is legitamate and should continue to hit above .280. With those steals and eligible at all of those positions in leagues with a 10 game minimum, and all except SS in leagues with a 15 game minimum, he isnt too far a reach around the 11th. Probably a better "draft steal" candidate a few rounds later.

SP K. Escobar - I'm an A's fan and the Angels pitching is scareing me. He should come close to last years numbers with more Wins to show for it. Not a bad 2nd fantasy pitcher, and I would reach for him in the 9th or 10th if I didnt have a 2nd pitcher yet.

SS B.J. Upton - In a keeper or dynasty league probably sooner, but 17th or later sounds like a good shot at him.

SP Oliver Perez - I'm not sure where he will end up but I like his stuff. I'd take him in the 10th round for sure.

SP John Thompson - How do the Braves keep doing it with thier pitchers? He is solid 13th - 15th.









My humble little input to the debate

Mora - 2nd round? I'm sold on Mora as a great player whos numbers might drop a little but I dont think he can top any of his 2004 stats if match them next year, except for steals. To say he should go in the 2nd round, being eligible at only 3B in most leagues is a bit of a stretch. If I can get him in the late 3rd or early 4th I might go for him but with the depth at 3B, there is no way I take him over alot of the players still on the board in the 2nd round.

Beltre - In keeper or Dynasty leagues. Just maybe I would take him in the mid to late 2nd round, but most likely I peg him right at around the early to middle 3rd round.

Erboes wrote:Who's to say he won't get better? Remember, Bonds had such difficulties in his early years before it finally clicked and he never looked back. Who's to say it isn't the same with Beltre?

Now let's say you are sitting at the end of the first round. Who would you rather have after the top 8 players are gone -- Sheffield, Manny, R. Johnson, Schilling, Tejada, Rolen, Schmidt, or Beltre, which I think is a fair choice of what should be there in a mixed draft? If it were me, Manny, Sheffield, Johnson and maybe Schmidt I would take before Beltre, but other than that, Beltre would be my guy. I dont' think a late first/early second slot is a reach for him myself.


Bonds is a once a generation player, your theory is sound (I'm big on moneyball). Beltre is a stud who will continue to produce, but a Bonds comparison is reaching a little. How could you take Beltre over Tejada as well? Tejada will continue to flat out be the best SS with A-Rod no longer eligible there. He is right dead in the middle of his prime and never misses a game. How he actualy improved his average in Camden I'm not sure. Take into account his age, lineup support, career consistency and he becomes a much better and safer pick than Beltre IMHO.

BTW Erboes, I lurk much more than post and greatly respect your baseball knowledge as I read the forums alot. I have no desire to get into a general baseball knowledge discussion with you as you would take me to the woodshed :-D . Just giving my reason for the disagreeement on Beltre and Mora's draft value.
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Postby wkelly91 » Wed Nov 17, 2004 7:59 am

Bukoski77 wrote:SP Oliver Perez - I'm not sure where he will end up but I like his stuff. I'd take him in the 10th round for sure.


I don't think he will be around anywhere near the 10th round.

Here is my overlooked and un-talked of player:

Amongst starters with 20 or more starts...

K's- 166, 19th place.
ERA- 3.386, 16th place.
Whip- 1.307, 40th place.
Wins- sadly only 12, but he started 34 games, 24 of which were quality starts (3rd place).

Who is he? Doug Davis-Brewers

He went undrafted in my league last year and I rode him all year.

Sleeper ;-D
Last edited by wkelly91 on Wed Nov 17, 2004 8:04 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Postby Erboes » Wed Nov 17, 2004 8:01 am

Rule #1 in my book is to not take a player one round before you have to, so I don't propose anyone should take Mora in the second round. My point was, Mora's production is probably better than anyone else's that you can get in that round. He was a top 20 player last season and would have been about a top 5 if he didn't miss a month. People keep on thinking he is a fluke which means you can get him dirt cheap. That is my humble opinion.

You do have a point about Tejada, and maybe I should include him on that list, but like I said last off-season, Tejada is one of about four SS's of equal value available in mixed drafts. Last season it was four, but I don't know if Nomar is in that group anymore. At that time I stated that Tejada was the greatest value and would be the best SS out there besides A-Rod, which is what happened. This season? I'm really liking Renteria as a value pick and would much rather tag him later. I really like to take players with upsides beyond their current value at that point and I don't think Tejada can get any better and will likely slip some, which makes him a poor value.

With Beltre, I am having as difficult of a time as figuring out what his norm will be as anyone else. This would be so much easier if he started running again, but that looks unlikely. Let's assume he does slip in average and HR's to say .300 and 40. If he ends up signing with a team with a slightly better lineup (not even mentioning ballpark) his runs and RBi's should rise since he had no one hitting in front or behind him last season. Let's say he goes up to 115 runs and 130 RBI's. Let's keep his SB's at 7. These numbers would still put him ahead of Tejada's numbers from last season overall, but maybe only be a buck or two. But look at the upside? He may consistently hit 50 HR's and .320+, especially if he moves into a better hitting environment. We're talking Pujols numbers here. It's the upside that people are overlooking. Sure, 3b is loaded, but he is capable of putting up numbers right now that could put A-Rod to shame. Speaking of which, how come no one is talking about dropping A-Rod into the third round? Beltre did much better than he did (A-Rod was at $34, which was boosted by out of the norm SB totals), so someone should be making that argument too, right?
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Postby Erboes » Wed Nov 17, 2004 8:13 am

Rule #1 in my book is to not take a player one round before you have to, so I don't propose anyone should take Mora in the second round. My point was, Mora's production is probably better than anyone else's that you can get in that round. He was a top 20 player last season and would have been about a top 5 if he didn't miss a month. People keep on thinking he is a fluke which means you can get him dirt cheap. That is my humble opinion.

You do have a point about Tejada, and maybe I should include him on that list, but like I said last off-season, Tejada is one of about four SS's of equal value available in mixed drafts. Last season it was four, but I don't know if Nomar is in that group anymore. At that time I stated that Tejada was the greatest value and would be the best SS out there besides A-Rod, which is what happened. This season? I'm really liking Renteria as a value pick and would much rather tag him later. I really like to take players with upsides beyond their current value at that point and I don't think Tejada can get any better and will likely slip some, which makes him a poor value.

With Beltre, I am having as difficult of a time as figuring out what his norm will be as anyone else. This would be so much easier if he started running again, but that looks unlikely. Let's assume he does slip in average and HR's to say .300 and 40. If he ends up signing with a team with a slightly better lineup (not even mentioning ballpark) his runs and RBi's should rise since he had no one hitting in front or behind him last season. Let's say he goes up to 115 runs and 130 RBI's. Let's keep his SB's at 7. These numbers would still put him ahead of Tejada's numbers from last season overall, but maybe only be a buck or two. But look at the upside? He may consistently hit 50 HR's and .320+, especially if he moves into a better hitting environment. We're talking Pujols numbers here. It's the upside that people are overlooking. Sure, 3b is loaded, but he is capable of putting up numbers right now that could put A-Rod to shame. Speaking of which, how come no one is talking about dropping A-Rod into the third round? Beltre did much better than he did (A-Rod was at $34, which was boosted by out of the norm SB totals), so someone should be making that argument too, right?
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Postby Mookie4ever » Wed Nov 17, 2004 10:21 am

Erboes wrote:
Mookie4ever wrote:
SaintsOfTheDiamond wrote:
Mookie4ever wrote:
TheYanks04 wrote:3b (ten team league):
-Arod will go round 1
-Rolen will go round 2 or 3
-Beltre...who knows but with the numbers he posted in 04, someone will take him round 3 or 4 in all liklihood.


You would take Rolen before Beltre?


I think you have too. Beltre is not '04 good. He's better than he has been in the past, but he will not duplicate those numbers. Rolen's consistency alone is enough to put him ahead of Beltre in my mind.


I'm taking Beltre before Rolen next year.

Belte is first round material for sure. If he drops to the second round, he is a steal.


Amen, Mookie. You ain't too bad for a Mets' fan. As an aside, I'd take Mora ahead of Rolen too.


Hey thanks Erboes. But I ain't a Mets fan. Mook played for the Jays in his glory years :-D
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Postby stumpak » Wed Nov 17, 2004 11:09 am

Comment on Craig Wilson:

Everyone attributes his second half slide last year to the fatigue of playing a full season for the first time, but his slide really started after May--from then forward he hit .219. I would be very uncomfortable having him in my line-up at any position, no matter how cheap you can get him for.
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