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Everyone knows who the top players are, but....

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Postby Pogotheostrich » Tue Nov 16, 2004 2:44 pm

SaintsOfTheDiamond wrote:
Mookie4ever wrote:
TheYanks04 wrote:3b (ten team league):
-Arod will go round 1
-Rolen will go round 2 or 3
-Beltre...who knows but with the numbers he posted in 04, someone will take him round 3 or 4 in all liklihood.


You would take Rolen before Beltre?


I think you have too. Beltre is not '04 good. He's better than he has been in the past, but he will not duplicate those numbers. Rolen's consistency alone is enough to put him ahead of Beltre in my mind.
I don't think Beltre is 04 good either but Rolen's consistency? He had career highs in HR, RB, and BA. Beltre has a much higher upside and I would take him over Rolen.
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Postby Erboes » Tue Nov 16, 2004 2:46 pm

Good point, Pogo. Plus, back to Mora (I apologize), Rolen is always playing with some sort of injury or another, whereas Mora just got injured the past two seasons. I don't know, it just seems that impressions mean more than reality around here.
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Postby stumpak » Tue Nov 16, 2004 2:50 pm

"You guys got to be kidding my about Beltre. No one who has over a thousand OPS is a fluke. Even if he slips he's still going to hit .300 with 40 bombs. Accept the fact that the kid (25) finally learned to his. It happens you know."

Actually, there are quite a young players who have posted similar spectacular season in terms of OPS in recent years and not exactly maintained that same level of performance throughout their careers for one reason or another:

Olerud
Giambi
Delgado
Salmon
Erstad
Kevin Mitchell
+ more I can remember

The point is that although Beltre is clearly a talented player, but so were these guys, and one season of 1.000 OPS does not mean that he can't slip back to .800 OPS over the long-term. In Beltre's case, this is exacerbated by a proclvity to produce ony when his ass is on the line, such as 2004 which was a contract year.
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Postby LBJackal » Tue Nov 16, 2004 3:03 pm

Erboes wrote:No, in fact, I don't have anything better to do.

As far as McPherson goes, here's a quiz -- how many hitters who strike out 1 out of every 3 at bats turn out to be "great" (your word, not mine)? He may turn out to be a fine hitter, but I highly doubt if it will be next season.


It was once every 3.6 AB's in his minor league career. The only time he came close to a K every 3 AB's was in 67 AAA games. The other 336 games he played, he averaged a K every 3.90 AB's. Not good, but not enough to write him off from ever becoming great.

I doubt that he'll be a fine hitter this year too but I'd still take him if he was there in the last round of probably any draft. And that was all I was saying...

As for Beltre: no way I'm taking him in the first round. There are too many 3B's out there to risk taking Beltre when he's only had one good season. I thought you had a formula to tell you a player's norm? Do you deviate from this when you think a hitter will continue to hit 300 points above his career OPS? For a guy who praises value picks (and I agree with that) Beltre would seem to be a player that you'd be avoiding, not touting. Is this some kind of pre-draft ploy to make people think he's the real deal?
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Postby Erboes » Tue Nov 16, 2004 3:05 pm

stumpak wrote:"You guys got to be kidding my about Beltre. No one who has over a thousand OPS is a fluke. Even if he slips he's still going to hit .300 with 40 bombs. Accept the fact that the kid (25) finally learned to his. It happens you know."

Actually, there are quite a young players who have posted similar spectacular season in terms of OPS in recent years and not exactly maintained that same level of performance throughout their careers for one reason or another:

Olerud
Giambi
Delgado
Salmon
Erstad
Kevin Mitchell
+ more I can remember

The point is that although Beltre is clearly a talented player, but so were these guys, and one season of 1.000 OPS does not mean that he can't slip back to .800 OPS over the long-term. In Beltre's case, this is exacerbated by a proclvity to produce ony when his ass is on the line, such as 2004 which was a contract year.


You are misunderstanding my point. It is very, very, rare for a player to go from a .700 OPS up to over 1.000, then back to .700. It is very likely that he will slip back under 1.000 next season, but that is only because he does not walk that much, but he will not go back into the .700's, that I am sure of. The only player on your list that comes close is Olerud, but that was based on one flukish, high averge/high walk season, but he still was consistently in the .800/.900 range after that. Mitchell had a few good seasons at the end of his career, and it should be pointed out that his 1.000 OPS season was supported by a few that were close to that afterwards, which proves my point that it wasn't a fluke. Delgado was over 1.000 twice, but other than that in the .900's mostly. Erstad was never over 1.000. Salmon was over 1.000 early in his career, and after that he was consistently in the .900's. Giambi was over a grand three straight years and over .900 for five until he dipped under it this past season.
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Postby LBJackal » Tue Nov 16, 2004 3:09 pm

How large a sample size is their of players who go from a mid 700 OPS for 5 years to 1000+ OPS all of a sudden? I don't imagine there are many who have done it, and not enough to conclude that it can't be a fluke. He'll be good.... but being good doesn't merit a first round draft choice IMO.
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Postby Erboes » Tue Nov 16, 2004 3:17 pm

LBJackal wrote:
Erboes wrote:No, in fact, I don't have anything better to do.

As far as McPherson goes, here's a quiz -- how many hitters who strike out 1 out of every 3 at bats turn out to be "great" (your word, not mine)? He may turn out to be a fine hitter, but I highly doubt if it will be next season.


It was once every 3.6 AB's in his minor league career. The only time he came close to a K every 3 AB's was in 67 AAA games. The other 336 games he played, he averaged a K every 3.90 AB's. Not good, but not enough to write him off from ever becoming great.

I doubt that he'll be a fine hitter this year too but I'd still take him if he was there in the last round of probably any draft. And that was all I was saying...

As for Beltre: no way I'm taking him in the first round. There are too many 3B's out there to risk taking Beltre when he's only had one good season. I thought you had a formula to tell you a player's norm? Do you deviate from this when you think a hitter will continue to hit 300 points above his career OPS? For a guy who praises value picks (and I agree with that) Beltre would seem to be a player that you'd be avoiding, not touting. Is this some kind of pre-draft ploy to make people think he's the real deal?


The formula applies to players who have established themselves. Up to last season Beltre was trying to do that. Once a player establishes himself it is a whole new ballgame. For example, these same arguments were being used against Mora. Although he was older, you just do not duplicate those types of numbers without being able to hit except for sometimes rookies, before pitchers learn how to pitch to them. There are natural ebb and flows in a player's career, but it is rare when one does so much better than his norm and come back to earth the next season. For example, Guillen for Detroit. His hitting was not a fluke last season. This is not to say he will repeat his numbers but I will bet he will never drop to his prior levels either. Same with Beltre. Will he drop some? Probably, but not to his prior levels. It is very, very, rare when this stuff happens.

McPherson averaged 1 K per 3.21 AB's in the minors last season and even worse in his cup of tea in the majors. Worse, he's not selective either. He will, more than likely, be eaten up and spitten out by major league pitching unless he changes his approach. He won't see a strike all season long. I would be surprised if he hit over .250.
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Postby stumpak » Tue Nov 16, 2004 3:25 pm

To be first round pick, Beltre would almost have to mirror last season to prvide the requisite value. Like I said, the kid has talent and could easily perform within 10% of last season on a consistent basis, but -10% of last season is the difference between 1st round and say a 3rd round value. I am not saying he is not going to have strong fantasy value moving forward, but I would bet a lot of money that last year was a career year and that he will not produce at 1st round levels 4 out of 5 years moving forward. Add to this the fact that he has never displayed a good attitude or put in much effort independent of his contract being up or the Dodgers threatening to bench him. There is just not a good case to take him in the first round.
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Beltre

Postby baseballrich » Tue Nov 16, 2004 3:32 pm

Lets not forget this guys age - he has more M LB experience then 99.9% of guys his age. He will not be as good next year but 90% of this is as good as it gets for 3b's.
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Postby Erboes » Tue Nov 16, 2004 3:41 pm

Who's to say he won't get better? Remember, Bonds had such difficulties in his early years before it finally clicked and he never looked back. Who's to say it isn't the same with Beltre?

Now let's say you are sitting at the end of the first round. Who would you rather have after the top 8 players are gone -- Sheffield, Manny, R. Johnson, Schilling, Tejada, Rolen, Schmidt, or Beltre, which I think is a fair choice of what should be there in a mixed draft? If it were me, Manny, Sheffield, Johnson and maybe Schmidt I would take before Beltre, but other than that, Beltre would be my guy. I dont' think a late first/early second slot is a reach for him myself.
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