I've already completed my positional rankings and I've got my top 160 overall done. Here is my top 50 SP for next season:
Johan Santana
Mark Prior
Jason Schmidt
Randy Johnson
Ben Sheets
Roy Oswalt
Curt Schilling
Oliver Perez
Kerry Wood
Carlos Zambrano
Pedro Martinez
Jake Peavy
AJ Burnett
Josh Beckett
Rich Harden
Mike Mussina
Tim Hudson
Kelvim Escobar
Freddy Garcia
Mark Mulder
Roy Halladay
Matt Clement
Javier Vazquez
Barry Zito
Roger Clemens
Chris Carpenter
Brad Penny
Andy Pettitte
Carl Pavano
Bartolo Colon
Jaret Wright
Wade Miller
Kevin Millwood
Jeremy Bonderman
Livan Hernandez
Doug Davis
Vicente Padilla
Adam Eaton
Nate Robertson
Dontrelle Willis
Randy Wolf
Mark Buehrle
CC Sabathia
Bronson Arroyo
Zack Greinke
Odalis Perez
Greg Maddux
Matt Morris
Eric Milton
Brad Radke
(The reason Clemens is ranked so low is because I've factored in the chances of his retirement)
dleoboyd wrote:I've already completed my positional rankings and I've got my top 160 overall done. Here is my top 50 SP for next season:
Johan Santana Mark Prior Jason Schmidt Randy Johnson Ben Sheets Roy Oswalt Curt Schilling Oliver Perez Kerry Wood Carlos Zambrano Pedro Martinez Jake Peavy AJ Burnett Josh Beckett Rich Harden Mike Mussina Tim Hudson Kelvim Escobar Freddy Garcia Mark Mulder Roy Halladay Matt Clement Javier Vazquez Barry Zito Roger Clemens Chris Carpenter Brad Penny Andy Pettitte Carl Pavano Bartolo Colon Jaret Wright Wade Miller Kevin Millwood Jeremy Bonderman Livan Hernandez Doug Davis Vicente Padilla Adam Eaton Nate Robertson Dontrelle Willis Randy Wolf Mark Buehrle CC Sabathia Bronson Arroyo Zack Greinke Odalis Perez Greg Maddux Matt Morris Eric Milton Brad Radke
(The reason Clemens is ranked so low is because I've factored in the chances of his retirement)
Since you seem to have done your research, would you be interested in participating in this year's rankings?? I did it last year and it can be found here:
dleoboyd wrote:I've already completed my positional rankings and I've got my top 160 overall done. Here is my top 50 SP for next season:
Johan Santana Mark Prior Jason Schmidt Randy Johnson Ben Sheets Roy Oswalt Curt Schilling Oliver Perez Kerry Wood Carlos Zambrano Pedro Martinez Jake Peavy AJ Burnett Josh Beckett Rich Harden Mike Mussina Tim Hudson Kelvim Escobar Freddy Garcia Mark Mulder Roy Halladay Matt Clement Javier Vazquez Barry Zito Roger Clemens Chris Carpenter Brad Penny Andy Pettitte Carl Pavano Bartolo Colon Jaret Wright Wade Miller Kevin Millwood Jeremy Bonderman Livan Hernandez Doug Davis Vicente Padilla Adam Eaton Nate Robertson Dontrelle Willis Randy Wolf Mark Buehrle CC Sabathia Bronson Arroyo Zack Greinke Odalis Perez Greg Maddux Matt Morris Eric Milton Brad Radke
(The reason Clemens is ranked so low is because I've factored in the chances of his retirement)
Wood over Zambrano? Wood has never been able to win not to mention the overall numbers do not bear it out.
Radke falls off the cliff?...maybe. But worse than Milton?
Freddy Garcia and Escobar over Mulder and Halladay?...maybe, but I do not think either Garcia or Escobar is really as good as Mulder or Halladay.
How quickly people forget that Wood has 300K talent....sure he has yet to get wins, but I'd say wins are the least reliable statistic to use when evaluating SP. Compare Wood's numbers to RJ's at the same age......yeah, Wood is just as good in the "stuff" dept. Johnson never had a K/BB ratio above 2/1 until he was 30 years old, when it suddenly jumped all the way up to 3/1. If last year's injury shortened season was any indicator, Wood is primed for a break-out season. Wood had a career best 2.82/1, K/BB ratio last year......I love Zambrano, but to rank him over Wood is basically just ranking pitchers based on last year's numbers.
Halladay isn't nearly as good a pitcher as he gets credit for.....those lofty wins totals from 02 and 03 had him ranked among the top 5 last season, IIRC. He is not nearly that talented. Same goes for Mulder. When I do my pitching rankings, I completely ignore Wins and focus on K/BB, K/9 IP, BAA......usually those are the indicators of a pitchers talent. When those ratios are good, the K's, ERA, WHIP, and usually win totals will come. Sometimes a pitcher can be completely filthy (See Ben Sheets, last season) and not get the wins. And it works the other way too (Bartolo Colon).
The reason I rank Radke so low is because he has such a low value in one whole category: Strike Outs. He is a control pitcher and when he isn't hitting the corners he has nothing else to rely on. Guys with nasty stuff can be a bit off with their location, yet still have a very successful outing because they can reach back and throw the ball by the batters, or fool them with nasty breaking pitches.
Radke worse than Milton though?...Milton blows in every department.
And what Wood has the stuff to do and what he will do\ has done inthe past are not the same obviosuly. Wood has great stuff...but has been around for years...has never won more than 14, often winning far less...and has never gotten to the elite class. Anyone can breakout any season theoretically. Rank lists are probabilities. Zambrano had a very good year, improved for the second straight season and is pretty young. His season in 04 was better than anything Wood has amassed so far I believe. Why would you rate Wood over Zambrano at this point? Wood is likely to do what he always does...win about 12 and opften pitch just good enough to lose.
Mulder and Halladay may be overrated, but Escobar has never been much until last season and often was AWFULin previosu years and Garcia was up and down for years. Garcia is certainly unlikely never to get to where Halladay and Mulder have been numbers-wise and Escobar is very problematic in that.
Next season's rankings are all about making projections.....if you're content to use players' history exclusively, then I want to be in some of your leagues. ........You can take the Roy Halladays and Mark Mulders, but you'll pay for them. I always project the guys that I think will end up having break out seasons (as I'm sure most fantasy players do). Last season I had Johan Santana, Matt Clement, Kelvim Escobar, Ben Sheets, and Oliver Perez ranked much higher than most people and it ended up working out really well for me (coincidently I also had Randy Wolf, Wade Miller, and Matt Morris ranked higher than most people and, uhhhh, yeah..... ).
dleoboyd wrote:Next season's rankings are all about making projections.....if you're content to use players' history exclusively, then I want to be in some of your leagues. ........You can take the Roy Halladays and Mark Mulders, but you'll pay for them. I always project the guys that I think will end up having break out seasons (as I'm sure most fantasy players do). Last season I had Johan Santana, Matt Clement, Kelvim Escobar, Ben Sheets, and Oliver Perez ranked much higher than most people and it ended up working out really well for me (coincidently I also had Randy Wolf, Wade Miller, and Matt Morris ranked higher than most people and, uhhhh, yeah..... ).
Agreed and I also like taking chances on some players.
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by Tavish » Tue Nov 23, 2004 3:29 pm 
........You can take the Roy Halladays and Mark Mulders, but you'll pay for them. I always project the guys that I think will end up having break out seasons (as I'm sure most fantasy players do). Last season I had Johan Santana, Matt Clement, Kelvim Escobar, Ben Sheets, and Oliver Perez ranked much higher than most people and it ended up working out really well for me (coincidently I also had Randy Wolf, Wade Miller, and Matt Morris ranked higher than most people and, uhhhh, yeah..... 
).
