I like Bonderman to crack the top 30. After the All-Star break he posted a 3.70 ERA, 1.10 WHIP, and a .211 BAA while striking out 85 in 90 IP and only walking 28.
I still don't understand why a few people are hesitant about Santana. He's pitched well as a starter for the last three seasons, he can't help the fact that he was underutilized by the Twins in 2002 and 2003. Heck, go back to 2002 and among pitchers to throw at least 100 innings, only Randy Johnson struck out more batters per nine innnings pitched. The idea that Johan came out of nowhere doesn't really have any grounding in reality. He has had ERAs of 2.99, 3.07, and 2.66 and BAA of .212, .216, and .192 in the past three seasons. He took a step forward in 2004, but it's not some crazy quantum leap (circa Scott Bakula).
Sheets is still underrated by many, especially in 5x5 leagues. Yeah, he pitches for Milwaukee and only had 12 wins, but he pitches spectacularly. He still owns strike-outs, ERA, and WHIP. And W, having the least to do with the pitcher himself as opposed to the other categories, tend to be much more fickle form year to year. Radke won 20 games for the 1997 Twins, and the Twins sucked in 1997. The point of that anectdote? You are much more likely to get lucky with W than K, ERA, or WHIP. Far from ace guys like Shawn Estes (15-8) and Kenny Rogers (18-9) had good win totals last season too. My guess is Sheets wins at least 14 or 15 next season and continues his dominance in the NL, surpassed only by Randy Johnson this past season.
I agree about the round to take them. I can't think of too many I would want to take in the first round or even second really. Santana is probably the only one, and I wouldn't want to take him that high. On a side note, is anyone as hesitant about Santana as I am? I mean the guy had a great season no doubt, but there's no way he's this good is he?
If that's the question, then the answer is: I'm not sold on Pavano. Plus, unless their name is Mulder, I only like to use high draft picks of K pitchers. In a 5x5 12 team league, I wouldn't draft Pavano before the 8th round. There are a whole bunch of guys I'd rather have, including, (in no order)
Not to mention some of the usual suspect closers.
Bluto: Over? Did you say over? NOTHING is over until WE decide it is! Was it over when the Germans bombed Pearl Harbor? HELL, NO!
Boon: Forget it, he's rolling.
Pavano going to an AL East team (if that happens) smells a lot like Vasquez and the Yankees last year--more pressure, big bats and the DH. I think Pavano is going to be overvalued because there will be a lot of people not taking the downside risk into account. He just seems like one of those guys to stay away from and let someone else overpay.
stumpak wrote:Pavano going to an AL East team (if that happens) smells a lot like Vasquez and the Yankees last year--more pressure, big bats and the DH. I think Pavano is going to be overvalued because there will be a lot of people not taking the downside risk into account. He just seems like one of those guys to stay away from and let someone else overpay.
I agree with this Pavano nonsense. He is pretty good, but his free-agent hype will outweigh his fantasy value.
Starting pitching is the most variable thing in fantasy baseball. Prior gets hurt, El Duque lights it up, Zito forgets how to pitch, Whose this Dontrelle Willis guy?, Schmidt has a bum elbow/arm, Schmidt throws a near cy-young season, Brandon Webb, Cliff Lee, Chris Carpentar.
There are so many things that can happen with starting pitching. There are very few locks for starting pitching next season (I'm not even sold on Schilling). Last year, I drafted Prior in the first round and Santana in the seventh. I also ended up with several other pitchers throughout the season (29 different ones, total), and I ended up with a rotation of Santana, Prior, Doug Davis, and El Duque. I could have never predicted that kind of pitching chaos, and I still won the league (with some creative roster jostling).
Back to the original question: I really look at a guys k/9 and whip (Santana has a proven record of this). Wins are so variable, and even ERA is dependent on several variable factors. WHIP is less dependent and k/9 even less.
I wouldn't draft a pitcher in the first round next season. But considering the way I rate pitchers, how could you go wrong with Schmidt, RJ, Schill (healthy 100%), Santana, or Pedro? If you can get one of these guys at a resonable spot in the draft (or at a reasonable price) it would be great. But you can still win pitching with better, cheaper starters, efficient releivers, and extensive line-up/match-up research. I'd go with the bats in at least the first two rounds, and if one of these guys is still there, grab him. Other than that, you'll have to wing it.
Finally, while we are on the topic of starting pitching: Does anyone thing Roy Halladay will bounce back?
98% of Americans have a favorable opinion of puppies and rainbows.
How do you spell "biased?"
Minor League Mentor
Joined: 15 Jan 2003
Home Cafe: Baseball
Location: Living Room, Watchin Baseball on Mute, Ignoring Idiot Red Sox and Yankee Fans
Pitching is, and will always be, a crapshoot. I never take one in the first 2 rounds but do try and get 2 'aces' within my first 6 picks. Here's my top 25 (5x5) as of right now. This is very preliminary and will change greatly over the winter.
1. Randy Johnson
12. Oliver Perez
Outside of the Top 15
RJ & santana are #1 and 2 NO questions asked.
Pavano is highly overrated imo, especially if he signs with the yankees or red sox. I see him as not performing up to standards to his huge contract. I think his value goes up if he stays in the NL but if he goes to the AL and pitches for the yanks or sox i think he will not even post an ERA under 4.
i kno that is a bold statement, but i see him as not being effective in boston or new york