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Guess Webb's W's.

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Postby kimchi_chigae » Mon Nov 15, 2004 12:05 am

TheYanks04 wrote:He will be lucky to get 10 with that team. 4.0+ ERA...walks too many and his ERA in 2004 was very fortunate.


i would go more in this direction...i don't really like webb, dunno why, but never trusted him, not even during his rookie season....
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Postby dannahann » Mon Nov 15, 2004 12:48 pm

This is a REAL tough one. It really depends upon how his team looks on opening day. Sure, run support matters (ie will Sexson be back? can we add a bat?) but IMO that's not the biggest factor in determining Webb's effectiveness. Webb relies very heavily on his infield and AZ used a bunch of "baby backs" who defensively (and for the most part offensively) should've still been learning in AAA or even AA. Will these kids make progress? Will we add a decent major league infielder or two? To me, those are the biggies in answering the question.
I haven't looked at the numbers, but Webb himself threw pretty well from about July on. I'd guess most of the damage to his BB/9 ratio was done early on when he pressed too hard for strikeouts (putrid defense had him rattled IMO) His bullpen should be adequate enough to preserve most of his leads, as well.
But HOW MANY WINS??? Good question at this point. :-o
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Postby Nerfherders » Mon Nov 15, 2004 2:00 pm

The unluckiest pitcher in 2004...

It seemed to me based on his stats and game logs that he basically had to make every out or he lost, so the walks go up when you absolutely have to make perfect pitches to win ballgames.

That's my take... if the guy had any offense or defense behind him he wins 15 easy. But my projection next year is 11.
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Postby dannahann » Mon Nov 15, 2004 7:30 pm

Nerfherders wrote:It seemed to me based on his stats and game logs that he basically had to make every out or he lost, so the walks go up when you absolutely have to make perfect pitches to win ballgames.

That's my take... if the guy had any offense or defense behind him he wins 15 easy. But my projection next year is 11.


Spot on Nerf. The same could be said for Randy Johnson and Casey Fossum. I know Fossum is derided here as "worthless compensation" for Schilling, but I see him as blossuming into a very effective #2 type starter. He has very good stuff nice command and often pitched VERY well into the 6th or 7th only to have no run support. Sadly I watched a lot of DBacks game last season and it seemed we'd score 3+ approx once a week :~( Top that off with a team so pathetic in the field. Regardless how many errors were awarded, it seemed our pitchers had to get 4 or 5 "extra" outs per game. Our pitchers suffered the most from these team inadaquacies and (sans Dessens) aren't as bad as their numbers appear.
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Postby acsguitar » Mon Nov 15, 2004 8:00 pm

I'm a believer in Webb...I've heard that he has one of the best sinkers ever....bad team doesn't encourage much...


1-6 with the D-Back
10-4 with the yankees
11-10
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Postby beltrans_boy » Tue Nov 16, 2004 4:47 pm

Nerfherders wrote:The unluckiest pitcher in 2004...

It seemed to me based on his stats and game logs that he basically had to make every out or he lost, so the walks go up when you absolutely have to make perfect pitches to win ballgames.

That's my take... if the guy had any offense or defense behind him he wins 15 easy. But my projection next year is 11.


:-o Try telling that to Odalis Perez...
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Postby Nerfherders » Tue Nov 16, 2004 5:29 pm

Yeah I had both those dudes on my fantasy team before trading Perez for Brad Penny... about 3 starts before his bicep injury.

But to balance things, I also had Bartolo Colon for the whole season.
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Postby NY Yankees Fan 2004 » Tue Nov 16, 2004 9:30 pm

Ill say he gets 11 wins with a 3.75 ERA
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