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Should we have a Sabermetrics forum in the Cafe?

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Would you like to have a Sabermetrics Forum in the Cafe?

Yes!!- Bill James is my hero!
19
54%
(Hell) No- We have enough pencil necked stats geeks in the Cafe already!
16
46%
 
Total votes : 35

Postby Mookie4ever » Wed Nov 17, 2004 1:05 pm

FatGuyWithAMullet wrote:
Mookie4ever wrote:
FatGuyWithAMullet wrote:B) You have to understand that every single defensive statistic is inherently faulty since the model requires assigning points to things that are not direct outputs. It's a fallacious use of statistics that shouldn't be used.


I'm not with you on this one FGWM. Almost every stat, and certainly every baseball stat, has got room for the exercise of discretion and is faulty to some extent. That doesn't mean that we shouldn't use them (otherwise there would be no FB), all it means is that we should give more weight to certain stats than to others.

ZR has got some use but I don't think that you should, on the basis of ZR alone, say that Andruw Jones or Pudge are poor defensive players. I don't give much weight to ZR.


While it's true that statistics are open to interpretation, some statistics are abominations to mathmatics and logic. I've explained numerous times why defensive statistics are fershit. If a statistic is a simple mathmatic formula and mathematically sound it is simple to buy into. Batting Average is a perfect example of this; it is a straight ratio. In contrast, OPS isn't. Instead, it is the addition of two fractions with different denominators without creating a common denominator, so it's validity is zero. Just to clarify - A player with an OPS of 1.000 doesn't perform in an arithmatically predictable manner better than someone with an OPS of .800. The end value isn't a mathmatical calculation.

People can show me as many formulas as they want, and I really don't care. They should know as well as I that you can manipulate numbers to say just about anything you want. I could easily plug numbers into a formula and come up with some arbitrary number that is assigned a positive or negative connotation.

I enjoy baseball statistics as a whole, they are the backbone of the game, as long as they are used appropriately, and are mathematically significant to the analysis they are being used to support.


You're absolutely right. I've said before that it's a gimmick invented by James to sell the STATS Inc. services. He didn't have an opinion that anyone would buy but he had stats to sell. When people could get the stats from MLB or other providers, he had to come up with something new - so he mashed a bunch of numbers together and voila, a new product. Throw it in the basket with WinShares, MLV, OPI etc. and go to the checkout.

I also love how he guards (some of) the formulas that he uses but still wants us to take his stats seriously.
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Postby blankman » Wed Nov 17, 2004 1:12 pm

Mookie4ever wrote:
FatGuyWithAMullet wrote:
Mookie4ever wrote:
FatGuyWithAMullet wrote:B) You have to understand that every single defensive statistic is inherently faulty since the model requires assigning points to things that are not direct outputs. It's a fallacious use of statistics that shouldn't be used.


I'm not with you on this one FGWM. Almost every stat, and certainly every baseball stat, has got room for the exercise of discretion and is faulty to some extent. That doesn't mean that we shouldn't use them (otherwise there would be no FB), all it means is that we should give more weight to certain stats than to others.

ZR has got some use but I don't think that you should, on the basis of ZR alone, say that Andruw Jones or Pudge are poor defensive players. I don't give much weight to ZR.


While it's true that statistics are open to interpretation, some statistics are abominations to mathmatics and logic. I've explained numerous times why defensive statistics are fershit. If a statistic is a simple mathmatic formula and mathematically sound it is simple to buy into. Batting Average is a perfect example of this; it is a straight ratio. In contrast, OPS isn't. Instead, it is the addition of two fractions with different denominators without creating a common denominator, so it's validity is zero. Just to clarify - A player with an OPS of 1.000 doesn't perform in an arithmatically predictable manner better than someone with an OPS of .800. The end value isn't a mathmatical calculation.

People can show me as many formulas as they want, and I really don't care. They should know as well as I that you can manipulate numbers to say just about anything you want. I could easily plug numbers into a formula and come up with some arbitrary number that is assigned a positive or negative connotation.

I enjoy baseball statistics as a whole, they are the backbone of the game, as long as they are used appropriately, and are mathematically significant to the analysis they are being used to support.


You're absolutely right. I've said before that it's a gimmick invented by James to sell the STATS Inc. services. He didn't have an opinion that anyone would buy but he had stats to sell. When people could get the stats from MLB or other providers, he had to come up with something new - so he mashed a bunch of numbers together and voila, a new product. Throw it in the basket with WinShares, MLV, OPI etc. and go to the checkout.

I also love how he guards (some of) the formulas that he uses but still wants us to take his stats seriously.


I've found it hard to believe him after seeing his predictions for young players in 2005. He had at least 3 players (in a list of 10? young players) hitting over 30 HR's in addition to some other numbers that just didn't see possible. We shall see though.

Did he make predictions for 2004? If so could someone give me a link, I'd like to see how they turned out.
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Postby blankman » Wed Nov 17, 2004 1:22 pm

My second question is how does he come up with these when he doesn't know what team, ballpark, where in the lineup etc these players will be playing in? Surely if one of them went to Coors Field their numbers would be different from a hitter that went to PETCO Park. There is no way for him to take effects like these into account. I think he is just somewhat desperate to pull out numbers quickly.

If you haven't yet bought the 2005 Bill James Handbook, here are a few fascinating items. The first is his 2005 projections:

FREE AGENT 2005 PROJECTIONS

BA HR OPS
Beltre .287 34 .866
Beltran .285 31 .891
Cabrera .271 12 .729
Delgado .281 35 .955
Drew .291 26 .926
Garciaparra .313 20 .880
Glaus .254 39 .884
Koskie .270 20 .823
M. Ordonez .302 24 .902
Renteria .294 11 .765
Varitek .266 17 .792
Sexson .272 39 .894


And again, does anyone have his 2004 Predictions?
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Postby Amazinz » Wed Nov 17, 2004 1:35 pm

Blankman, what the heck do his projections have to do with ZR? :-?

I have always said that neither RF or ZR are flawless. And that used in combination you can start to get a pretty clear picture (in my opinion) of a player's defensive ability.

So for sake of argument let's pretend ZR is just a gimmick devised by James and UZR, RF and DR are all useless crap also.

Other than using FatGuy's eyes how do you suggest we compare two fielders? We have to do this statistically, correct? Please, break it down for me and FatGuy you jump in and make sure everything is mathematically sound. OK?
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Postby Mookie4ever » Wed Nov 17, 2004 1:44 pm

Amazinz wrote:We have to do this statistically, correct?


Why?

Is the MVP awarded based on stats alone?

Stats play a part in it - IMO stats play a smaller role in awarding gold gloves than in any other award. Gold gloves are awarded by managers who watch these guys play. They decide who is the best defensively at each position. I wouldn't have it any other way.
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Postby blankman » Wed Nov 17, 2004 1:45 pm

Amazinz wrote:Blankman, what the heck do his projections have to do with ZR? :-?

I have always said that neither RF or ZR are flawless. And that used in combination you can start to get a pretty clear picture (in my opinion) of a player's defensive ability.

So for sake of argument let's pretend ZR is just a gimmick devised by James and UZR, RF and DR are all useless crap also.

Other than using FatGuy's eyes how do you suggest we compare two fielders? We have to do this statistically, correct? Please, break it down for me and FatGuy you jump in and make sure everything is mathematically sound. OK?


I wasn't referring to defense at all. I was questioning how James comes up with some of the numbers he does as in the predictions. Apologies that it was slightly off topic. No need to flip out. jeez :-t
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Postby Amazinz » Wed Nov 17, 2004 2:07 pm

blankman wrote:
Amazinz wrote:Blankman, what the heck do his projections have to do with ZR? :-?

I have always said that neither RF or ZR are flawless. And that used in combination you can start to get a pretty clear picture (in my opinion) of a player's defensive ability.

So for sake of argument let's pretend ZR is just a gimmick devised by James and UZR, RF and DR are all useless crap also.

Other than using FatGuy's eyes how do you suggest we compare two fielders? We have to do this statistically, correct? Please, break it down for me and FatGuy you jump in and make sure everything is mathematically sound. OK?


I wasn't referring to defense at all. I was questioning how James comes up with some of the numbers he does as in the predictions. Apologies that it was slightly off topic. No need to flip out. jeez :-t

Umm I don't think I flipped. My apologies if I gave the impression but after re-reading what I wrote I think you might just be a wee bit sensitive. ;-)
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Postby Amazinz » Wed Nov 17, 2004 2:14 pm

Mookie4ever wrote:
Amazinz wrote:We have to do this statistically, correct?


Why?

Is the MVP awarded based on stats alone?

Stats play a part in it - IMO stats play a smaller role in awarding gold gloves than in any other award. Gold gloves are awarded by managers who watch these guys play. They decide who is the best defensively at each position. I wouldn't have it any other way.

Why does this go from attacking defensive metrics to defending the way Gold Gloves are awarded? I do believe the manner in which GGs are handed out is flawed but it's an entirely different arguement.

Despite GGs what is wrong with trying to measure a player's skill so that we can compare them to each other? If that's not your cup of tea fine but what's the worth of attacking ZR without putting forth a better way to go about it?
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Postby FatGuyWithAMullet » Wed Nov 17, 2004 2:16 pm

Amazinz wrote:So for sake of argument let's pretend ZR is just a gimmick devised by James and UZR, RF and DR are all useless crap also.

Other than using FatGuy's eyes how do you suggest we compare two fielders? We have to do this statistically, correct? Please, break it down for me and FatGuy you jump in and make sure everything is mathematically sound. OK?


I'll chime in one more time on this topic...or something.

You want to know how you compare two fielders? Don't tell Bill James my uber secret because he might be tempted to steal it....Watch them. No stat sheet, no gyrations and no statistical manipulations can make up for good old fashioned scouting of defensive players. Some of you people are talking as if statistics themselves are black and white fact.

blankman wrote:My second question is how does he come up with these when he doesn't know what team, ballpark, where in the lineup etc these players will be playing in? Surely if one of them went to Coors Field their numbers would be different from a hitter that went to PETCO Park. There is no way for him to take effects like these into account. I think he is just somewhat desperate to pull out numbers quickly.

If you haven't yet bought the 2005 Bill James Handbook, here are a few fascinating items. The first is his 2005 projections:

FREE AGENT 2005 PROJECTIONS

BA HR OPS
Beltre .287 34 .866
Beltran .285 31 .891
Cabrera .271 12 .729
Delgado .281 35 .955
Drew .291 26 .926
Garciaparra .313 20 .880
Glaus .254 39 .884
Koskie .270 20 .823
M. Ordonez .302 24 .902
Renteria .294 11 .765
Varitek .266 17 .792
Sexson .272 39 .894


And again, does anyone have his 2004 Predictions?


I don't know his exact formula, but I do know that it is most likely dubious at best. Most baseball statistics are not statistically controllable in the sense that they cannot be used accurately to predict outcomes. Quite simply, there are too many independent variables that go into every individual plate appearance, at-bat, swing, play, etc. to make these predictions usable. These variables can not be statistically removed from the equation, so these "statistics" are not usable on any micro-level. For example; the aforementioned UZR looks at some stupid 3 year range to augment its own value, and I'm guessing these predictions do the same thing.

I would really enjoy to continue to discuss this but it's worthess seeing as I cannot tell JamesHeads any different. They have some stupid formula to prove me wrong no matter what. All I know is that baseball was played for over 100 years, and not only was it played - it was played well without all of this garbage.
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Postby Amazinz » Wed Nov 17, 2004 3:15 pm

FatGuyWithAMullet wrote:
Amazinz wrote:So for sake of argument let's pretend ZR is just a gimmick devised by James and UZR, RF and DR are all useless crap also.

Other than using FatGuy's eyes how do you suggest we compare two fielders? We have to do this statistically, correct? Please, break it down for me and FatGuy you jump in and make sure everything is mathematically sound. OK?


I'll chime in one more time on this topic...or something.

You want to know how you compare two fielders? Don't tell Bill James my uber secret because he might be tempted to steal it....Watch them. No stat sheet, no gyrations and no statistical manipulations can make up for good old fashioned scouting of defensive players. Some of you people are talking as if statistics themselves are black and white fact.

What good does watching them do? There are 2500+ games per year. There is absolutely no way you or I can watch enough games to evaluate every fielder fairly. This is a surprising statement from someone who is a self-proclaimed statistical guru. You should know better. ;-)
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