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2005 Mauer Expectations

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2005 Mauer Expectations

Postby looptid » Thu Nov 11, 2004 1:18 pm

Who knows how his knee will respond, this coming season, or for the rest of his career. Hopefully he can still play catcher. I've read that his knee is responding well, and I've also read that he might require further surgery this offseason. Maybe he catches next season, maybe he plays third base.

I do know, that during his limited action, Mauer flashed his amazing upside. If you expand his 2004 totals to 162 games, which I think is fair for this kind of experiment because while catchers don't play 162 games, it would only give him 495 AB, his numbers would look like:

83 R, 37 2B, 28 HR, 79 RBI, .308 AVG, .369 OBP, .570 SLG

The .570 SLG is especially impressive, because the big fantasy knock on Mauer coming into the season is that he wouldn't develop any semblance of power for a few years according to some, or ever, according to a few.

Further dewling in the hypothetical, if Mauer stays healthy, I'd expect the rate at which he scores runs and drives them in would increase, because he'll bat in the heart of the Twins order in 2005.

Catchers with knee injuries are a very scary thing, but based on his limited 2004 performance, I think his upside is higher than previously expected. It's clear that Mauer, with his great talent, batting eye, and 6'4" 220 pound frame is going to hit for some power.

Anyone have any expectations/predictions for Mauer's 2005 season? How soon would you gamble on his upside in your draft? Keeper or redraft?
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Postby thomasps3 » Thu Nov 11, 2004 1:42 pm

Well, you seem especially high on Mauer, to say the least. 28HR? I would be happier than a pig in crap if he hit .275, with 15-20 HRs next year. I'm not sure about his knee, but it sounds like a chronic type thing that means he will not be able to be a C for his whole career. Someone in the heart of Minnesota's line-up should be able to have 90 RBI, but wasn't he actually hitting second last year when he was playing? I would put a projection, to the upside, of 21 HRs, 75 RBI, and .272 average. Two factors to also consider: the sophomore slump, and the way Minnesota protects their players, almost to the point of coddling them.
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Postby looptid » Thu Nov 11, 2004 1:53 pm

Second mostly when he returned from the knee mid-season, but down in the order to start the year. I think, assuming the big if, that if he gets a full season's worth of AB, he'll most definately top 20 HR in 2005.
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Postby stumpak » Thu Nov 11, 2004 2:09 pm

Extrapolating a small sample size to predict full season numbers is always a little risky, but especially for a position like catcher, where guys wear down and stats suffer. Simply because Mauer has never approached a full season MLB catching load in his life, I agree that .275 15/20 is more realistic than .308/28.
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Postby Baseballer02 » Thu Nov 11, 2004 2:49 pm

I'm pretty sure Mauer never even hit more than 10 home runs in a season while in the minors, so predicting even 20 I think is a long shot. I'm predicting Mauer for 75/15/80/3/.300, and I'll probably be lucky if he reaches that.
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Postby Amazinz » Thu Nov 11, 2004 3:12 pm

He didn't even come that close to 10 HRs in the minors and he'll be lucky to hit 10-15 HRs in the majors if he manages to play a full season. I wouldn't read too much into 6 HRs in 100 ABs.
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Postby Baseballer02 » Thu Nov 11, 2004 3:13 pm

Amazinz wrote:He didn't even come that close to 10 HRs in the minors and he'll be lucky to hit 10-15 HRs in the majors if he manages to play a full season. I wouldn't read too much into 6 HRs in 100 ABs.


But that means he'll defninitely hit 30 home runs or more if he reaches 500 ABs next season. ;-7
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Postby looptid » Thu Nov 11, 2004 3:17 pm

I never said I expect Mauer to hit 28, or 30+ next season, just that during his few games in the Majors this season, he displayed more power than many expected. Agreed it is a very small sample size, but I think it's encouraging.

I'll still say that if he stays healthy he'll best 20 (21 or 22ish :-)).
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Postby Baseballer02 » Thu Nov 11, 2004 3:21 pm

looptid wrote:I never said I expect Mauer to hit 28, or 30+ next season, just that during his few games in the Majors this season, he displayed more power than many expected. Agreed it is a very small sample size, but I think it's encouraging.

I'll still say that if he stays healthy he'll best 20 (21 or 22ish :-)).


Mauer will probably be a .300 hitter, so now if you predict him for 20 home runs in the heart of the Twins lineup he should easily reach 85-90 RBIs. That's pretty much top 2 or 3 catcher territory, you sure you're ready to put him up there?
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Postby StlSluggers » Thu Nov 11, 2004 3:32 pm

I don't know if I would take him next year in a non-keeper league, but in a keeper league, I would definitely take a risk on him. I would put more emphasis on that statement as the league gets deeper and the keeper options longer.

Mauer is a very good gamble. Too much upside in a shallow position. If he doesn't work out, what's the worst that can happen? You don't get any production from your catcher slot? Ooooo... Like that never happens.

Also, I have got to ask you, Looptid:

Do you ever use a word that don't mean nothin'?

:-D
Last edited by StlSluggers on Thu Nov 11, 2004 3:35 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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