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Postby Baseballer02 » Thu Nov 11, 2004 9:35 pm

raiders_umpire wrote:
Baseballer02 wrote:
SaintsOfTheDiamond wrote:I'd like to see your SS list too. All I can think of are Tejada, Nomar, Jeter, Young maybe. Who else am I missing? :-?


In no particular order I have Nomar, Jeter, Tejada, Furcal, Rollins, Young, and Guillen all ranked above Renteria. Renteria has hit his plateau, he may do better than '04, but he definitely won't have another year like '03.



i agree with the first 6 but i dont have guillen ahead of renteria.... i am super happy with the numbers he gave me last year in a few leagues, but in no way will i put him ahead of renteria YET....... if he can produce again this year similar to 2004 then i will have him on my lists as a stable performer but i will still be a little hesitant this year....but if he falls to me at a certain point then i would be gladly able to take a chance on him.....


I had Guillen on a couple teams this past season, so perhaps I'm biased. :-b
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Postby slomo007 » Fri Nov 12, 2004 10:11 am

LBJackal wrote:
slomo007 wrote:
LBJackal wrote:I agree, Renteria won't hit his 2003 numbers. But Guillen is an extreme one year wonder if there ever was one. His SLG went up a ridiculous amount, especially considering he's in an extreme pitchers park. He's due for a big decline as far as I'm concerned...


Do you have any reason to think this, or are you just guessing because that's what you want to see happen? If you have seen a lot of Tigers games and can tell us that he can't hit inside and it's only a matter of time until pitchers figure him out, that's great I'd love to hear it. But if that's purely your opinion then it truly doesn't mean much. [b]I don't think someone can be that good for 140 games or whatever and still be called a fluke.[b]


He wasn't that good for 140 games, he was that good for about 80 games (3 months). Also, lets look at Renteria himself. In 2003 he put up numbers a LOT better than what Guillen did last year. Guillen has been below average his whole career. His SLG has never been above 400 before this year, when it spiked to 542 (I think we know what usually happens after things spike up... they spike down). And you want me to give another reason why he won't keep it up? How about the last 2 months of the season were his worst months. Other than May, June, and July, he did what he was expected to do.

So no, it's not because it's what I WANT to see happen, it's because that's what's likely to happen. If you think he'll be remotely close to this season's totals, draft him ahead of Renteria.


Once again you are only looking at what you want so see, here are his real stats:

Code: Select all
   
           G AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB K SB CS AVG OBP SLG OPS   
April      22 81 18 25 5 0 2 14 12 17 2 1 .309 .396 .444 .840   
May        27 102 20 35 6 4 4 17 13 17 0 2 .343 .417 .598 1.015   
June       26 106 19 34 10 3 5 24 7 12 2 1 .321 .360 .613 .973   
July       27 104 21 35 8 2 6 23 11 17 3 0 .337 .405 .625 1.030   
August     26 100 15 26 7 1 3 19 8 19 4 1 .260 .312 .440 .752   
September  8  29 4 11 1 0 0 0 1 5 1 0 .379 .400 .414 .814   


As you can see, he really only had one relatively poor month.

I never once said I would rather have Guillen over Renteria all else equal. What I am saying is that Renteria will likely be drafted well before Guillen based solely on his name, therefore I would take the value of Guillen over the value of Renteria.
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Postby LBJackal » Fri Nov 12, 2004 3:53 pm

slomo007 wrote:
LBJackal wrote:
slomo007 wrote:
LBJackal wrote:I agree, Renteria won't hit his 2003 numbers. But Guillen is an extreme one year wonder if there ever was one. His SLG went up a ridiculous amount, especially considering he's in an extreme pitchers park. He's due for a big decline as far as I'm concerned...


Do you have any reason to think this, or are you just guessing because that's what you want to see happen? If you have seen a lot of Tigers games and can tell us that he can't hit inside and it's only a matter of time until pitchers figure him out, that's great I'd love to hear it. But if that's purely your opinion then it truly doesn't mean much. [b]I don't think someone can be that good for 140 games or whatever and still be called a fluke.[b]


He wasn't that good for 140 games, he was that good for about 80 games (3 months). Also, lets look at Renteria himself. In 2003 he put up numbers a LOT better than what Guillen did last year. Guillen has been below average his whole career. His SLG has never been above 400 before this year, when it spiked to 542 (I think we know what usually happens after things spike up... they spike down). And you want me to give another reason why he won't keep it up? How about the last 2 months of the season were his worst months. Other than May, June, and July, he did what he was expected to do.

So no, it's not because it's what I WANT to see happen, it's because that's what's likely to happen. If you think he'll be remotely close to this season's totals, draft him ahead of Renteria.


Once again you are only looking at what you want so see, here are his real stats:

Code: Select all
   
           G AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB K SB CS AVG OBP SLG OPS   
April      22 81 18 25 5 0 2 14 12 17 2 1 .309 .396 .444 .840   
May        27 102 20 35 6 4 4 17 13 17 0 2 .343 .417 .598 1.015   
June       26 106 19 34 10 3 5 24 7 12 2 1 .321 .360 .613 .973   
July       27 104 21 35 8 2 6 23 11 17 3 0 .337 .405 .625 1.030   
August     26 100 15 26 7 1 3 19 8 19 4 1 .260 .312 .440 .752   
September  8  29 4 11 1 0 0 0 1 5 1 0 .379 .400 .414 .814   


As you can see, he really only had one relatively poor month.

I never once said I would rather have Guillen over Renteria all else equal. What I am saying is that Renteria will likely be drafted well before Guillen based solely on his name, therefore I would take the value of Guillen over the value of Renteria.


OK, well what I was saying is he was only better than expected for 3 months. Over the span of a 5 year career, I tend not to believe a 3 month span, which occurred mostly in the first part of the season (May to July), is a trend that will continue. You think it will, and that's cool.

He could provide more value than Renteria (probably not, because players who have a great season and then fall back to mediocrity almost always get drafted too early), and anyway my point was that he won't be better than Renteria.
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