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Cristian Guzman

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Re: Cristian Guzman

Postby looptid » Thu Nov 11, 2004 12:02 pm

Pogotheostrich wrote:The Twins didn't pick up his option and he is now a FA. He is only 26. Where does he sign and who plays SS for the Twins next year?


Guzman's club option was $5.25 million, which is right around 1/10th of Minnesota's entire payroll. The Twins didn't pick up his option because they can't afford to give out that percentage of their payroll to a player that will (or should) hit 8th or 9th for them.

Guzman ranked 13th amongst AL SS in VORP this past season. Any team that wants to give him $5 a season had better be comfortable with overspending. I doubt he'll go for that much. The Twins are actually talking with Guzman about bringing him back, just at a much lower price than $5.25 million for 2005.
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Re: Cristian Guzman

Postby Pogotheostrich » Thu Nov 11, 2004 12:30 pm

looptid wrote:
Pogotheostrich wrote:The Twins didn't pick up his option and he is now a FA. He is only 26. Where does he sign and who plays SS for the Twins next year?


Guzman's club option was $5.25 million, which is right around 1/10th of Minnesota's entire payroll. The Twins didn't pick up his option because they can't afford to give out that percentage of their payroll to a player that will (or should) hit 8th or 9th for them.

Guzman ranked 13th amongst AL SS in VORP this past season. Any team that wants to give him $5 a season had better be comfortable with overspending. I doubt he'll go for that much. The Twins are actually talking with Guzman about bringing him back, just at a much lower price than $5.25 million for 2005.
No knock on the Twins for not picking up his option. That would have been a big chunk of their payroll. Just wondering wher everyone thought he would go and who would be playing SS for the Twins.
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Postby looptid » Thu Nov 11, 2004 12:50 pm

From what I've read, the Twins don't think Jason Bartlett will be ready for the majors in 2005. That leaves Augie Ojeda and Nick Punto as the two current internal candidates. Here is how these three fared in 2004:

Player AVG/OBP/SLG
Guzman 274/309/384 (576 AB)
Ojeda 339/429/458 (59 AB)
Punto 253/340/319 (91 AB)

Ojeda was 29 this past season and is a career 219/294/304 (375 AB), Punto was 26 and is a career (253/340/319), though he ony has 191 Major League ABs. Both are better suited as reserves. Punto seems like the most likely candidate should the Twins fail to sign Guzman or another mid-level free agent shortstop.

My guess is the Twins will bring in a low cost free agent stop-gap for a year or two until Bartlett is ready. Maybe a fantastic spring training by Bartlett changes things. I thought Vizquel would be a great fit, with a one or two year deal for $4 million a season, but it looks like there is too much interest surrounding Vizquel, who has said he would enjoy playing for Ozzie Guillen.
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Postby Baseballer02 » Thu Nov 11, 2004 12:52 pm

SaintsOfTheDiamond wrote:I'd like to see your SS list too. All I can think of are Tejada, Nomar, Jeter, Young maybe. Who else am I missing? :-?


In no particular order I have Nomar, Jeter, Tejada, Furcal, Rollins, Young, and Guillen all ranked above Renteria. Renteria has hit his plateau, he may do better than '04, but he definitely won't have another year like '03.
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Postby LBJackal » Thu Nov 11, 2004 2:50 pm

Baseballer02 wrote:
SaintsOfTheDiamond wrote:I'd like to see your SS list too. All I can think of are Tejada, Nomar, Jeter, Young maybe. Who else am I missing? :-?


In no particular order I have Nomar, Jeter, Tejada, Furcal, Rollins, Young, and Guillen all ranked above Renteria. Renteria has hit his plateau, he may do better than '04, but he definitely won't have another year like '03.


All seem reasonable to me except Carlos Guillen. He's due for a HUGE decline I think. He far exceeded anything he's done before, and his last 2 months were clearly his worst months, a sign that the hot start won't be a trend. Other than May/June/July when his SLG hovered around .610, in no other month was it above .450.

This is somebody you want to take over Renteria? You might say that now but when draft time hits I don't know if you'll be sticking with that opinion.
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Postby Baseballer02 » Thu Nov 11, 2004 2:56 pm

LBJackal wrote:
Baseballer02 wrote:
SaintsOfTheDiamond wrote:I'd like to see your SS list too. All I can think of are Tejada, Nomar, Jeter, Young maybe. Who else am I missing? :-?


In no particular order I have Nomar, Jeter, Tejada, Furcal, Rollins, Young, and Guillen all ranked above Renteria. Renteria has hit his plateau, he may do better than '04, but he definitely won't have another year like '03.


All seem reasonable to me except Carlos Guillen. He's due for a HUGE decline I think. He far exceeded anything he's done before, and his last 2 months were clearly his worst months, a sign that the hot start won't be a trend. Other than May/June/July when his SLG hovered around .610, in no other month was it above .450.

This is somebody you want to take over Renteria? You might say that now but when draft time hits I don't know if you'll be sticking with that opinion.


I've got Guillen for 95/18/90/10/.310, which each stat is less than what he produced in 136 games in '04. The Tigers have been improving ever year, so I'd say chances are good he reaches my prediction.

6th in AL AVG.
8th in AL OPS.
8th in AL SLG.

Yeah, he's pretty damn good.

I had Renteria as the #3 last year, drafted him in the 3rd or 4th round in a couple leagues, and he burned me bad. Like I've already said, I believe he's hit his plateau, and there's no reason to expect him to come close to his career year of '03.
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Postby LBJackal » Thu Nov 11, 2004 3:37 pm

I agree, Renteria won't hit his 2003 numbers. But Guillen is an extreme one year wonder if there ever was one. His SLG went up a ridiculous amount, especially considering he's in an extreme pitchers park. He's due for a big decline as far as I'm concerned...
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Postby slomo007 » Thu Nov 11, 2004 5:02 pm

LBJackal wrote:I agree, Renteria won't hit his 2003 numbers. But Guillen is an extreme one year wonder if there ever was one. His SLG went up a ridiculous amount, especially considering he's in an extreme pitchers park. He's due for a big decline as far as I'm concerned...


Do you have any reason to think this, or are you just guessing because that's what you want to see happen? If you have seen a lot of Tigers games and can tell us that he can't hit inside and it's only a matter of time until pitchers figure him out, that's great I'd love to hear it. But if that's purely your opinion then it truly doesn't mean much. I don't think someone can be that good for 140 games or whatever and still be called a fluke. Melvin Mora comes to mind and he's still doing great.

I got burned by the team that picked him up from FA just like I'm sure you did, but it's no reason to hate the guy...you should take advantage of the fact that there are so many Carlos doubters by drafting him late next year and watching it pay off.
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Postby LBJackal » Thu Nov 11, 2004 8:08 pm

slomo007 wrote:
LBJackal wrote:I agree, Renteria won't hit his 2003 numbers. But Guillen is an extreme one year wonder if there ever was one. His SLG went up a ridiculous amount, especially considering he's in an extreme pitchers park. He's due for a big decline as far as I'm concerned...


Do you have any reason to think this, or are you just guessing because that's what you want to see happen? If you have seen a lot of Tigers games and can tell us that he can't hit inside and it's only a matter of time until pitchers figure him out, that's great I'd love to hear it. But if that's purely your opinion then it truly doesn't mean much. [b]I don't think someone can be that good for 140 games or whatever and still be called a fluke.[b]


He wasn't that good for 140 games, he was that good for about 80 games (3 months). Also, lets look at Renteria himself. In 2003 he put up numbers a LOT better than what Guillen did last year. Guillen has been below average his whole career. His SLG has never been above 400 before this year, when it spiked to 542 (I think we know what usually happens after things spike up... they spike down). And you want me to give another reason why he won't keep it up? How about the last 2 months of the season were his worst months. Other than May, June, and July, he did what he was expected to do.

So no, it's not because it's what I WANT to see happen, it's because that's what's likely to happen. If you think he'll be remotely close to this season's totals, draft him ahead of Renteria.
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Postby raiders_umpire » Thu Nov 11, 2004 9:28 pm

Baseballer02 wrote:
SaintsOfTheDiamond wrote:I'd like to see your SS list too. All I can think of are Tejada, Nomar, Jeter, Young maybe. Who else am I missing? :-?


In no particular order I have Nomar, Jeter, Tejada, Furcal, Rollins, Young, and Guillen all ranked above Renteria. Renteria has hit his plateau, he may do better than '04, but he definitely won't have another year like '03.



i agree with the first 6 but i dont have guillen ahead of renteria.... i am super happy with the numbers he gave me last year in a few leagues, but in no way will i put him ahead of renteria YET....... if he can produce again this year similar to 2004 then i will have him on my lists as a stable performer but i will still be a little hesitant this year....but if he falls to me at a certain point then i would be gladly able to take a chance on him.....
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