NL MVP: Beltre or Bonds... - Fantasy Baseball Cafe 2014 Fantasy Baseball Cafe
100% Deposit Bonus for Cafe Members!

Return to Baseball Leftovers

NL MVP: Beltre or Bonds...

Moderator: Baseball Moderators

Postby Bloody Nipples » Fri Nov 05, 2004 2:17 am

I think its more complicated than that. I think you have to look at the number of outs Bonds would make. If I am wrong, I am wrong, and you are right. But lets get a true authority on this to settle it. Anybody have Bill James' cell number?
Image
aka enderwiggin
Bloody Nipples
General Manager
General Manager


Posts: 3745
Joined: 28 Feb 2004
Home Cafe: Baseball
Location: doing my laundry...

Postby LBJackal » Fri Nov 05, 2004 2:20 am

Madison wrote:
Bloody Nipples wrote:
Madison wrote:Would you rather have a man at second with two outs and a power hitter with a .370 average swinging the bat.........

or

Runners at first and second with two outs and a .250 hitter with mediocre power at the plate.

For me that's an easy choice. Swing Barry swing! ;-D

Why you believe the opposite is better, I'll never know.


I would much rather have Barry in that situation, but thats not the point. The thing is you cant look at each situation individually, you have to take the whole set of data into account. Of course Barry is more likely to drive that run in than a .250 hitter, but over the course of many similar situations (say, 100), that .250 hitter will definitely knock in that runner about 25 times. Now, would you rather have Bonds knock in that run 35 times but also end the inning 65 times, or have him extend the inning 100 times. I would rather give the hitters behind him the chance to drive in runs EVERY TIME than get the 35 runs and 65 inning-ending outs. Maybe somebody can do some sort of simulation for this, I'd love to see the results.

PS: please stop this discussion. We've heard every argument 100 times over, and unless somebody has a brand new idea, I dont think we should continue repeating ourselve.


What numbers would you like to see?

If Barry swings, 36 times the runner scores and he ends the inning 64 times.

If Barry walks, then 25 times that same runner who's at second scores and the guy behind Barry ends the inning 75 times.

So Barry knocks the runner in 11 more times and creates 11 less outs than the man behind him.

What exactly would you like to see? I'd have no issues looking at or working with the numbers, but I don't see any to work with. :-?


There's also an extra guy on base; if the guy after Bonds hits a double, 2 runs score. If Bonds hits double, one run scores. Same with a triple, same with a HR. It's more beneficial to the Giants if they walk Bonds for a 2B, 3B, or HR, and sometimes even if the guy after him gets on abse at all.

Also, there are MANY more situations than just a man on second and 2 outs. It may very well be beneficial to walk Bonds every time in that situation, but you're suggesting walking him every time. That's NOT beneficial if you're pitching to him. Most situations it's not beneficial to intentionally walk him.
Image

"Jack, will you call me, if you're able?"

"I've got your phone number written, in the back of my Bible."
LBJackal
Hall of Fame Hero
Hall of Fame Hero

User avatar
Pick 3 Weekly Winner
Posts: 9196
Joined: 1 Jul 2003
Home Cafe: Baseball
Location: The Hotel Yorba

Postby Madison » Fri Nov 05, 2004 2:24 am

Bloody Nipples wrote:I think its more complicated than that. I think you have to look at the number of outs Bonds would make. If I am wrong, I am wrong, and you are right. But lets get a true authority on this to settle it. Anybody have Bill James' cell number?


I wasn't looking at who's right/who's wrong. I was curious as to what you wanted to look at :-) . Thought maybe I was missing something and that maybe I might learn something. That's all. ;-)
Yes doctor, I am sick.
Sick of those who are spineless.
Sick of those who feel self-entitled.
Sick of those who are hypocrites.
Yes doctor, an army is forming.
Yes doctor, there will be a war.
Yes doctor, there will be blood.....
Madison
Mod in Retirement
Mod in Retirement

User avatar
ExecutiveEditorCafeholicFantasy ExpertCafe WriterCafe RankerMock(ing) DrafterEagle EyeCafe SpotterInnovative MemberCafe MusketeerPick 3 ChampionMatchup Meltdown SurvivorLucky Ladders Weekly Winner
Posts: 53856
(Past Year: 1)
Joined: 29 Apr 2003
Home Cafe: Baseball
Location: Taking Souls...

Postby Bloody Nipples » Fri Nov 05, 2004 2:26 am

So you dont have James' number? You are worthless! :-D
Image
aka enderwiggin
Bloody Nipples
General Manager
General Manager


Posts: 3745
Joined: 28 Feb 2004
Home Cafe: Baseball
Location: doing my laundry...

Postby Madison » Fri Nov 05, 2004 2:38 am

Bloody Nipples wrote:So you dont have James' number? You are worthless! :-D


More like: "Why would I want his number?". :-D

I'm not a big subscriber to the Moneyball way of thinking. Some of the philosophy is fantastic and great info, but other parts I don't find as valuable. Not a biggie though. ;-)
Yes doctor, I am sick.
Sick of those who are spineless.
Sick of those who feel self-entitled.
Sick of those who are hypocrites.
Yes doctor, an army is forming.
Yes doctor, there will be a war.
Yes doctor, there will be blood.....
Madison
Mod in Retirement
Mod in Retirement

User avatar
ExecutiveEditorCafeholicFantasy ExpertCafe WriterCafe RankerMock(ing) DrafterEagle EyeCafe SpotterInnovative MemberCafe MusketeerPick 3 ChampionMatchup Meltdown SurvivorLucky Ladders Weekly Winner
Posts: 53856
(Past Year: 1)
Joined: 29 Apr 2003
Home Cafe: Baseball
Location: Taking Souls...

Postby Bloody Nipples » Fri Nov 05, 2004 2:42 am

I'm just kidding around. I am bored and procastinating with all my homework. But really, you are worthless :-D ;-7
Image
aka enderwiggin
Bloody Nipples
General Manager
General Manager


Posts: 3745
Joined: 28 Feb 2004
Home Cafe: Baseball
Location: doing my laundry...

Postby Madison » Fri Nov 05, 2004 2:47 am

Bloody Nipples wrote:I'm just kidding around. I am bored and procastinating with all my homework. But really, you are worthless :-D ;-7


Homework huh? :-D On a Thursday night? Ouch. !+) Get it done so you can enjoy your weekend. :-)

Not entirely worthless, I did manage to make a few bucks this evening bowling ;-) . Just another day at the office. :-°
Yes doctor, I am sick.
Sick of those who are spineless.
Sick of those who feel self-entitled.
Sick of those who are hypocrites.
Yes doctor, an army is forming.
Yes doctor, there will be a war.
Yes doctor, there will be blood.....
Madison
Mod in Retirement
Mod in Retirement

User avatar
ExecutiveEditorCafeholicFantasy ExpertCafe WriterCafe RankerMock(ing) DrafterEagle EyeCafe SpotterInnovative MemberCafe MusketeerPick 3 ChampionMatchup Meltdown SurvivorLucky Ladders Weekly Winner
Posts: 53856
(Past Year: 1)
Joined: 29 Apr 2003
Home Cafe: Baseball
Location: Taking Souls...

Postby HOOTIE » Sat Nov 06, 2004 1:43 am

LCBOY nice post. Saved me a lot of typing. :-D

MOJO runs and rbis are team dependent stats. Go look at abs with runners on, and with risp, and you will see Beltre had more chances (abs). It's like buying a car based on nice wheels, without looking under the hood, like LCBOY did.


MAD glad to see you now have Bonds 1st. ;-)

Think of it this way, if everyone walked, the inning would last forever. A walk does so many things, but most of all, it doesn't make a out. Just like a walk through the park with a beautiful girl, a walk is a meaningful thing. ;-D
Smells Like Teen Spirit
HOOTIE
Hall of Fame Hero
Hall of Fame Hero

User avatar
CafeholicResponse TeamFantasy ExpertCafe Ranker
Posts: 15115
(Past Year: 297)
Joined: 12 Jan 2003
Home Cafe: Baseball
Location: Pearl Jam country, right next door to Nirvana, Soundgarden, and Alice in Chains.

Postby Madison » Sat Nov 06, 2004 2:40 am

HOOTIE wrote:MAD glad to see you now have Bonds 1st. ;-)


Well, Barry put up the numbers. ;-)

HOOTIE wrote:if everyone walked, the inning would last forever.


Well, at least the A's think that way.

Lol. :-b
Yes doctor, I am sick.
Sick of those who are spineless.
Sick of those who feel self-entitled.
Sick of those who are hypocrites.
Yes doctor, an army is forming.
Yes doctor, there will be a war.
Yes doctor, there will be blood.....
Madison
Mod in Retirement
Mod in Retirement

User avatar
ExecutiveEditorCafeholicFantasy ExpertCafe WriterCafe RankerMock(ing) DrafterEagle EyeCafe SpotterInnovative MemberCafe MusketeerPick 3 ChampionMatchup Meltdown SurvivorLucky Ladders Weekly Winner
Posts: 53856
(Past Year: 1)
Joined: 29 Apr 2003
Home Cafe: Baseball
Location: Taking Souls...

Postby LCBOY » Sat Nov 06, 2004 3:39 pm

HOOTIE wrote:LCBOY nice post. Saved me a lot of typing. :-D

MOJO runs and rbis are team dependent stats. Go look at abs with runners on, and with risp, and you will see Beltre had more chances (abs). It's like buying a car based on nice wheels, without looking under the hood, like LCBOY did.


thanks HOOTIE! ;-D

When I grow up I want to be like HOOTIE and Tavish, a sabermtric black-belt! :-D
LCBOY
General Manager
General Manager


Posts: 2838
Joined: 10 Jun 2003
Home Cafe: Baseball
Location: On third base trying to steal home.

PreviousNext

Return to Baseball Leftovers

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: Trainer of Dolphins and 9 guests

Forums Articles & Tips Sleepers Rankings Leagues


Today's Games
Friday, Jul. 25
(All times are EST, weather icons show forecast for game time)

St. Louis at Chi Cubs
(4:05 pm)
Toronto at NY Yankees
(7:05 pm)
Arizona at Philadelphia
(7:05 pm)
Washington at Cincinnati
(7:10 pm)
Boston at Tampa Bay
(7:10 pm)
indoors
San Diego at Atlanta
(7:35 pm)
Oakland at Texas
(8:05 pm)
Chi White Sox at Minnesota
(8:10 pm)
NY Mets at Milwaukee
(8:10 pm)
Cleveland at Kansas City
(8:10 pm)
Miami at Houston
(8:10 pm)
Pittsburgh at Colorado
(8:40 pm)
Detroit at LA Angels
(10:05 pm)
Baltimore at Seattle
(10:10 pm)
LA Dodgers at San Francisco
(10:15 pm)

  • Fantasy Baseball
  • Article Submissions
  • Privacy Statement
  • Site Survey 
  • Contact